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100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 49: Looking at Historical Point Breakdowns

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At RotoWire, I explained why it might be more useful to look at historical position breakdowns instead of analyzing point distributions solely from the prior year.

One of the major errors I see fantasy owners make is approaching the draft as if their projections and rankings are flawless. They often rank players as if their views are undoubtedly superior to others’ opinions, then draft as if those rankings are flawless. The best fantasy owners, however, leave room for error. They have a good idea of their own imperfections, and they act accordingly.

That was the general concept behind last week’s article comparing the RotoWire Top 200 Overall Composite Rankings to ADP. Aggregate rankings are valuable because they don’t give much weight to outliers. When you rank a player well above or below the consensus of experts, you really have to examine that player in greater depth. You might be right, but the more your opinion differs from other independently crafted expert opinions, the greater the certainty you need to have in your projection. If you don’t account for the inherent uncertainty in fantasy football and your own potential fallibility, you could be left with a board full of poorly ranked outliers.

Read the whole post at RotoWire.

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