100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 58: Value Is Relative
Yesterday, I posted an article from RotoWire on why it’s generally advantageous to wait on quarterbacks this year, using this graph as evidence that 2011 was an outlying season.
I want to add that no draft strategy is inherently “right.” I will typically wait on quarterbacks this year, but I also won’t be afraid to pull the trigger if a top passer drops. The value of any draft decision is inherently tied to the decisions of others. I think it’s generally advisable to go RB-RB to start drafts in 2013, but so do a lot of other people, so much so that running backs are starting to get overvalued a bit. Even with the scarcity of running backs, there might actually be value in bypassing them if their value becomes artificially inflated.
In each update of my 2013 fantasy football draft package, I post analysis of a draft I’ve completed. In the next update (Friday), I’ll analyze a recent high-stakes draft in which I actually passed on running backs in the first two rounds. Sitting with the 10th pick in the 12-team league, I selected Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant (and got lucky enough to land Lamar Miller and Darren McFadden in Rounds 3 and 4). I did this because 1) I’m quite high on those players in PPR and 2) I feel like people are getting excessive with the running backs to the point that the best teams by year’s end could be those that didn’t reach due to the widespread notion that you “need to go RB-RB.”
In any event, it’s the same idea with quarterbacks; I don’t think they have inherent value, but the concept of “value” doesn’t even really exist outside of the perceptions of others.