100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 60: Marshawn Lynch Isn’t a Top 10 RB
At rotoViz, I explained why I won’t own Marshawn Lynch in any leagues this season.
There’s been a lot of rotoViz content written on Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch, but I have him ranked so unimaginably low that I had to chime in on a running back who I think is the most overrated consensus first-rounder that I’ve ever seen. Shawn Siegele has already suggested that Lynch is a strong sell, citing his drop in yards after contact, while Frank DuPont notes that Lynch is overvalued due to a combination of his future contract situation and the underrated trio of talented backs behind him.
His ADP Is His Ceiling. . .Or Higher Than It
My primary issue with Lynch is that he’s being drafted as if his ceiling is his median projection. In both standard and PPR leagues, Lynch is currently the fifth running back off of the board. That rank is actually exactly where he ended up last year—you know, the one in which he posted a career-high in attempts, yards, and YPC. Lynch never saw more than 285 carries in a season prior to 2012, but he added 30 to that total last year. He also averaged 5.0 YPC, despite a previous career-high of just 4.2 YPC. Yes, Lynch was never even a league-average runner in terms of efficiency until last year. And just for good measure, Lynch’s 8.5 yards per reception is probably unsustainable.
I might be less worried about Lynch if we could expect his workload to remain steady, but that’s an unreasonable assumption.Russell Wilson passed the ball only 393 times in 2012, and only 141 times when Seattle was leading. At the very least, Lynch is a long shot to again carry the ball 315 times, especially with Christine Michael, Robert Turbin, and Spencer Ware breathing down his neck.