100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 62: Fantasy Production By Age
At FOX Sports, I broke down historic fantasy production by age.
The Role of Age in Fantasy Football Projections
In my newest book Fantasy Football for Smart People: What the Experts Don’t Want You to Know, I researched historic fantasy production for each position. First, let’s take a look at the data, and then draw some conclusions.
The above graph tracks fantasy points per opportunity (points per attempt for quarterbacks and points per touch for running backs, receivers, and tight ends) since 2000. That means we’re looking at efficiency, not overall production. The x-axis is age and the y-axis is the typical percentage of peak efficiency for each player. So the average age of peak efficiency for quarterbacks, for example, has been age 27.
It’s important to note that the peak years of bulk production have typically come later for each position. That’s because most players see more opportunities as they get older and gain the trust of their coaches. The peak age for overall fantasy production at the quarterback position is age 29, for example, even though players at the position peak in efficiency two years earlier. That would suggest that NFL coaches would be wise to utilize their quarterbacks more at a younger age. But for our purposes, it means that if we have a group of 27-year old quarterbacks and a group of 29-year olds with the same projected workload, the younger passers would typically outperform their elders.
Check it out right here.