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Prediction: Jason Witten Won’t Surpass 900 Yards

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Earlier today, I argued that you shouldn’t own Jason Witten in fantasy football. Here’s more analysis, including why I think he’ll fail to reach 900 receiving yards.

He won’t see such a huge workload again.

Witten saw 150 passes come his way in 2012. That’s the most he’s ever had, and 33 more than he saw in 2011. Even if Witten repeats them 6.93 yards per target he posted last year, he would record only 866 yards on 125 targets. To surpass 900 yards receiving, Witten would need 130 targets, which he’s seen only twice in his career.

His catch rate will regress.

Witten caught 73.3 percent of passes thrown his way in 2012. In comparison, it was 67.5 percent in 2011, although that was a down year. The only reason Witten’s catch rate was so high last year, though, was the short length of his targets. If he’s used downfield more often and doesn’t see so many quick out routes that defenses let him have late in games, his catch rate will drop a bit.

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