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TE Gavin Escobar 2013 Projection

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The Cowboys and all NFL teams seem unlikely to take anyone in the NFL’s supplemental draft, meaning the ‘Boys will be rolling with their seven draft picks and perhaps some undrafted free agents in 2013. I think these players need to have a big impact for the Cowboys to take down the division. I’ve already discussed how I think each of the offensive additions can help in the red zone; if Dallas can get 12 or so combined touchdowns from Gavin Escobar, Terrance Williams, and Joseph Randle, that’s a win.

If you look at the NFL betting lines, the Cowboys are right around 30:1 to win the Super Bowl. In comparison, the Giants are 18:1, the Redskins are 25:1, and the Eagles are 35:1, i.e. the guys in Vegas consider the ‘Boys the third-best team in the NFC East. If they’re going to compete, they need big-time play from the rookies.

Today, at NBC, I broke down the potential contributions from tight end Gavin Escobar:

As I mentioned in my projection for running back Joseph Randle, it’s difficult to project rookies in their first season because we have no background of relevant production to study. Any projection is a simple combination of opportunity and efficiency, but estimating both of those numbers can be difficult when we don’t know 1) how the player will be used and 2) how he’ll stand up against NFL competition.

The best way to project rookies, then, is to find similar players and study how they’ve performed in the past. I did that with Randle, comparing him to both Noah Herron and Alfred Morris. In my pre-draft scouting report on Cowboys second-round pick Gavin Escobar, I compared the pass-catching tight end to Dennis Pitta. Although Escobar doesn’t have great speed at 4.84, that actually isn’t strongly correlated with success for tight ends. Size seems to be more important, and Escobar has it at 6-6 with 34-inch arms.

In projecting Escobar for 2013, we have to determine if he’ll be the No. 2 tight end. If he’s not—which is very possible with James Hanna on the roster—then he’s not going to do much of anything as a rookie because he won’t see the necessary targets. For the sake of this projection, though, we’ll assume Escobar will win the backup tight end job.

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2 Responses to TE Gavin Escobar 2013 Projection

  1. John Coleman says:

    This guy is one whom I hope comes up big longterm. In the immediate future we need some contribution. Escobar is probably my least favorite pick of the whole draft. Not that I think he won’t succeed, but because we had bigger needs. Bigger at least from an outsiders viewpoint. The bigger needs being OG, OT, and DT. Now if we have guys like Leary(I think he wins a job), Arkin, Cook, Dominguez, Weems, or whoever that alleviates the need somewhat. Even Frederick is no automatic success at C. Then the DT becomes thin quick with just one injury. Now let’s factor in that I think Hanna wins the job outright and the Escobar pick is shaky. Further, I see 4 TE’s on this roster, with Rosario being the 4th. Ultimately, I see Escobar being 4th on the depth chart. He will have to learn very quickly and be a better blocker than we can foresee for much impact. The good thing is that he has upside as a longterm replacement for Witten. His speed does bother me a little, but he is probably as fast as Witten. Also if he works out maybe we will not draft a TE again next year. How about Hanna at WR in certain packages? He has the speed.

  2. He’s as fast as Witten, but Witten is also 31 haha. No I don’t mind Escobar but I didn’t like the pick given Hanna’s presence. Hanna at WR is interesting because he could get matched up on LBs or safeties.

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