100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 64: Is WR-WR a Workable Strategy in 2013?
Running back is an extremely important position in fantasy football (in the NFL, not so much), this year more than ever. Everyone “knows” you need to start your draft with at least one running back in the first two rounds, and preferably two. Well, if everyone is using the same competitive advantage, it’s probably not an advantage anymore.
I recently posted a guest post at Sports Jerks that explains why I went WR-WR to start a recent high-stakes mock draft.
Putting It Into Practice
I recently completed a high-stakes draft in which I (unfortunately) landed the 10th pick in a 12-team league. I really don’t like that spot this year because, if you miss out on the elite and second-tier running backs, as I did, you’re in a bit of a pickle. Before I get into my strategy, take a look at how I played it.
Note that this league starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D. It’s 1.5 PPR for tight ends and traditional full-point PPR otherwise.
Right out of the gate, you’re probably asking why in the hell I would bypass C.J. Spiller (or LeSean McCoy) in the first round. In this particular league, the playoffs begin in Week 11—the same week that both Buffalo and Philadelphia have their byes.
I downgraded both running backs quite a bit because, although you obviously need to get to the playoffs to compete in them, your probability of winning the league is considerably lower if you’re missing your top player.
To be clear, I would have drafted Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Jimmy Graham (because of the 1.5 PPR), Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson, and Trent Richardsonbefore Brandon Marshall in the first, so this was a bit of a nightmare scenario for me.
With McCoy and Spiller not serious considerations, I was forced to decide between Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, and a bunch running backs I have rated as third-tier options: Matt Forte,Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, and so on. If you have those guys rated higher than me, that’s fine; the point is that it was a decision between near-elite receivers (in a PPR league with two flex spots) and only mildly interesting running backs.
Head over to Sports Jerks for the draft analysis and more on why I think we’re dangerously close to overvaluing running backs in 2013.