100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 66: Heads-Up Daily Fantasy Strategy
At 4for4, I broke down daily fantasy football strategy in heads-up and 50/50 leagues.
When I was working with FFFC $150,000 winner Peter Jennings to write my daily fantasy book, I was pretty eager to discuss all the tactics he employed to take down the grand prize. Peter talked for a few minutes about his strategy in the championship week (which oddly enough centered around his defense), but the conversation always reverted back to use of heads-up leagues as a source of long-term profit.
Look, tournaments can and should absolutely be part of your daily fantasy repertoire. There’s more “bad money” in those than anywhere else, with novice owners throwing down cash in hopes of the big score. But the problem is, tournaments come with a high variance and little consistency; tournament-only play is not a sound long-term strategy unless you have a huge bankroll to withstand the droughts.
In most tournaments, 10 percent of entrants are paid out. Even if you’re a profitable daily fantasy player, it’s unlikely that you can cash in more than 20 percent of tournaments. If that’s the case, you’ll be in the money one time for every five tournaments you enter, on average. The key phrase there is ‘on average,’ because there are times that even the best daily fantasy players run cold. Even with a 20 percent expected cash rate, it wouldn’t be too long before you enter 15 tournaments without winning a dime. If you’re entering nothing but tournaments and wagering six or seven percent of your bankroll in each, you’ll go bankrupt before you know it.