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The most important stat needed to predict 2013 NFL records

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At Dallas Morning News, I went over perhaps the most influential stat in my team record predictions.

Below, I charted each team’s offensive EPA per play, defensive EPA per play, and the total. I used per-play averages because they don’t penalize a team for running fewer plays.

You can see the Cowboys ranked 20th in this metric last year, suggesting they were just slightly lucky to finish with an 8-8 record given how they played. One thing that EPA/play can’t measure is injuries, so we know that Dallas has a good chance of improving with superior defensive health.

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