100 Fantasy Tips in 100 Days, Day 99: Optimal FanDuel, DraftDay Lineups
At 4for4, I posted analysis of daily fantasy lineups at both FanDuel and DraftDay this week. On FanDuel:
QB Carson Palmer – $6300
Palmer is our sixth-highest value on FanDuel, priced at only $6300. Heading to St. Louis, he has a favorable matchup and we’re projecting him at 16.1 points. That’s just $392 per point, making Palmer a foundational piece in your FanDuel lineups. His presence allows you to go top-heavy at pretty much every other spot.
RB Jamaal Charles – $8800
Typically, the best values are low-priced players who might not be truly startable. At quarterback, for example, the players ranked ahead of Palmer are Pryor, Manuel, Weeden, Ponder, and Gabbert. There are questions surrounding all of those players.
When we see an elite player also ranked as an elite value, it’s a sign that we should have a lot of exposure to him in a given week. To start the season, one of the best running back values on FanDuel is Jamaal Charles.
Charles will run you $8800—only $400 more than Alfred Morris—but he’s projected at 20.5 points. TheChiefs won’t be favorites in many games this year, but going up against the Jags, they could very well come out of Week 1 at 1-0. That means that Charles, who is already set to see a heavier workload with Andy Reid feeding him the ball, could easily see 20 touches with some late caries. The most efficient back in NFL history has the ultimate upside this week, and he’s a great play in heads-up leagues or tournaments.
DraftDay Optimal Heads-Up Lineup
If you check out the value reports, you’ll notice that the majority of the best values are low-priced players. That’s natural, but we can’t just fill our team with the best values and call it a day. Value is just a tool we use to maximize what we really want: points.
So when you’re creating your lineups, get as many elite values in there as you can, but realize that you’ll typically have to move down the list to maximize projected points. That’s what I did with my optimal heads-up lineup, paying for Calvin Johnson and Jamaal Charles, both of whom are decent values but not nearly as high as players like Isaac Redman.
I also have Eddie Lacy in my optimal heads-up lineup; he has a difficult matchup against the Niners, but that’s factored into his low cost. So is the uncertainty of him being a rookie. I’m bullish on Lacy in season-long leagues, so I can use that to acquire value on him and similar players in daily fantasy early in the year.