Cowboys vs. Chargers: Stat Projections, Final Score
At DallasCowboys.com, I ran through the numbers to project the skill position players for both teams and predicted a final score:
Let’s take a look at Tony Romo’s comps for this game. These are the quarterbacks who most closely resemble Romo’s stats over the past year (with his 2013 numbers getting the most weight).
Before even aggregating those stats, we see some big-time numbers for Romo. Part of that is because he had a quality game last week, but a bigger part is the ineptitude of the Chargers’ pass defense. Quarterbacks with similar numbers to Romo, which you can see includes Romo himself four times and Peyton Manning four times, have dominated defenses that have posted numbers similar to those from San Diego.
If his comps are any indication, take a look at Romo’s chances of throwing for X number of yards.
These numbers are drastically different from what we saw in the first three weeks. Of Romo’s 25 comps, only eight (32 percent) have thrown for under 250 yards. But what’s really amazing is the ceiling production; an incredible 40 percent of Romo’s comps topped 351 yards passing against Chargers-like defenses.
The model also gives Romo nearly a coin flip’s chance of throwing for more than 300 yards. In comparison, it predicted just a 12 percent chance of crossing 300 yards against the Chiefs!
Final Player Projections for Cowboys
Using the same methodology, here are the final stat projections for the main skill players in this contest.
- QB Tony Romo: 25-for-40 for 304 yards (7.6 YPA), 2.24 touchdowns, 1.16 interceptions
In addition to the high yardage projection, Romo is also projected to throw 2.24 touchdowns. That’s a really high number, actually, and a great sign for Dallas. Notice that the numbers are somewhat dependent on a lot of attempts, meaning opposing quarterbacks have thrown a lot on pass defenses as poor as San Diego’s, which makes sense.
Also notice that Romo is projected to throw 1.16 interceptions, a high number. Again, that’s probably the result of an expected jump in attempts.
Final score prediction is right here.