Daily Fantasy Football: Optimal Lineups, Video Chat, Staking Bales & More
I have a bunch of stuff posted at 4for4.com. First, Josh and I just finished up (half of) a hang out because Google cut us off.
It was like 80 degrees in my apartment, but I wanted to wear my new hoodie for you guys. Dedication.
I also posted two articles with site-specific value plays. One for FanDuel:
RB Bilal Powell @TEN $4700
Powell is going to see a massive workload on Sunday. At his $4700 price tag, it really doesn’t matter who the Jets are playing. Unless Powell completely flops, you’ll see enough of a return to justify playing him. And don’t forget that, due to FanDuel’s pricing, a high-low strategy is often best there.
WR DeSean Jackson @DEN $7300
The Broncos are a sneaky good opponent against whom to start receivers. They’ve given up the third most passing yards in the league through three games, for a few reasons. First, they just aren’t that good in the secondary. Second, the Broncos will almost always be up late, forcing the opposition to air it out. And third, Peyton Manning’s fast-paced offense allows for lots of plays from both teams.
The over-under on this contest is 58 points, which is just enormous. There’s a good chance that the teams combine to run 140 plays or more. It’s a smart idea to stack your tournament lineups with either Broncos or Eagles players, and Jackson is always a great tournament choice because of his big-play ability.
QB Joe Flacco @BUF $10800
The Ravens-Bills line opened at BAL -6, but it’s already shifted from between BAL -3 to a straight pick ‘em. That’s ridiculous movement that suggests there’s a whole lot of money on Buffalo to either cover or winoutright. Either way, this game should be close, meaning Baltimore will have an incentive to throw the entire game.
For whatever reason, Flacco is the 26th-highest quarterback on DraftDay. I’m not really a fan of his, but that’s a steal for a quarterback who could throw the ball 40 times against the Bills. Don’t forget that Buffalo’s fast-paced offense leads to more total plays for both teams, not just them.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew vs. IND $9350
MJD has only the 25th-highest running back salary on DraftDay, yet he’s actually ranked in the top 15 in PPR points per game. He has a favorable matchup against the Colts—a team against whom Jones-Drew could see a lot of targets out of the backfield. His surrounding situation is never going to be ideal, but in terms of expected production versus price, he’s valuable. He costs less than Bilal Powell, Marcel Reece, and Montee Ball.
And finally, I posted some strategy content in my “Staking Bales” series:
I mentioned earlier this week that I found out my grandfather started playing daily fantasy. Well, through a little detective work, i.e. calling him and asking, I got his username. Some of you asked if you could have it so that I could “share the wealth.” Well here it is. . .
As in, no freakin’ way am I giving away his username so that you fools can bankrupt him. He’s my grandfather, so the only person who is going to be taking his money is me. I just called him to set up some head-to-heads, but no answer. I’ll wait it out.
This is a good time to mention that heads-to-head matches aren’t always the best investment if you aren’t facing users who you can consistently beat. The safety that comes from going mano-a-mano disappears if you’re facing sharks. Remember, on most sites, you need to maintain a 55.6 percent winning percentage just to break even on heads-up matches. That’s easier against Dickie Bales (not his username, don’t even bother looking it up) than it is against condia.
Week 4 Strategy
As I discussed in today’s shortened G+ Hangout with Josh, I’ll be participating in more tournaments moving forward, particularly on DraftKings. The majority of their tournaments are paying out the top quarter of entrants, so there’s a bit of safety there that wasn’t previously available (and still isn’t) in most tournaments.
My DraftKings profits are likely going to fluctuate more than at other sites. If I were playing solely at DraftKings, it might be a problem. But it’s important to remember that my bankroll is all of the money I have in the sites (or all of the money I’m willing to put into the sites) combined.
I’m not treating the accounts as four separate bankrolls, because that could potentially limit my profitability. I might have to do that if the barriers to withdrawing and depositing were steeper, but most daily fantasy withdrawals process in a day. If one of the accounts runs low, I can easily redeposit using funds from another account.