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Projecting Players to Predict a Final Score for Cowboys vs. Chiefs

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At DallasCowboys.com, I used the insanely awesome rotoViz GLSP model to project players for the Cowboys and Chiefs, then predict a final score using those projections. Check it out right here:

Tony Romo Comps

Earlier this week during the “On Air” podcast, I predicted a close win for the Cowboys. That was just my opinion before digging through the numbers (something I still haven’t done as I write this sentence). So let’s get into those numbers right now.

Looking at Romo’s comps, it’s clear why the Cowboys are the underdog in this game.

We can throw Rex Grossman’s 2010 performance out of this sample because he got injured in the game. For the other 24 comps, here’s the average stat line: 22-for-36 (61.1 percent) for 240 yards (6.67 YPA), 1.58 touchdowns, 0.83 interceptions.

That’s not horrible, but it’s certainly not Romo-esque. The most important number in there is the yards per attempt (YPA), which is really predictive of team success. At 6.67 YPA, Romo’s comps (four of which are Romo himself) have averaged more than a full yard less than his career average (7.91 YPA).

Breaking it down further, we can look at the probability of Romo reaching each level of efficiency.

Based on his comps, Romo has a 62 percent chance to not even reach 7.0 YPA. For whatever reason, he and comparable quarterbacks have struggled against Chiefs-like defenses.

And how about the probability of Romo throwing X number of touchdowns?

So even though he’s projected at 1.58 touchdown passes, Romo’s most likely outcome is probably just one touchdown pass, followed by zero! There is a fairly large deviation here, though, as exactly one-quarter of Romo’s comps have thrown for at least three scores and eight percent have tossed at least four touchdowns.

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