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Staking Bales: Week 3 Plays

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In the latest “Staking Bales” series, I discuss true bankroll and my Week 3 plays. One of the really valuable ways to select players in daily fantasy is to check the Vegas lines. Since the guys and computers in Vegas have all kinds of money riding on the line, you can bet that their projections are accurate.

And if you look at NFL betting odds, you can quickly see which teams are projected to score the most points in a given game. That’s valuable information since, you know, we want our players to score touchdowns. I talk a lot more about how to use the lines to make player projections in my book on daily fantasy.

In any event, here are a few of my Week 3 plays:

QB Geno Smith vs. BUF

Smith hasn’t been good. He has only one touchdown and four picks with a 53.4 percent completion rate. But he’s also added 64 yards on the ground, which is the equivalent of 128 yards passing on most sites. And if we were looking at Smith as a rookie quarterback with 598 yards passing (but no rushing yards) in his first two games, I think we’d see him differently.

Ultimately, though, this just comes down to his salary. Smith is still so cheap that he should be able to give you a return, but the real value comes in your ability to own other studs.

RB Adrian Peterson vs. CLE

Oh wow, the daily fantasy expert is telling us that AP is a good play? Genius. Look, sometimes Peterson isn’t a quality option because he’s priced too high. No player is inherently valuable without a comparison to his salary. But most sites are pricing Peterson just a notch above the others, while others don’t even have him as the priciest back. He showed last week that it really doesn’t matter who he plays.

WR Calvin Johnson vs. WSH

See Peterson, Adrian.

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