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Stat Projections, Final Score Prediction for Cowboys vs. Rams

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At DallasCowboys.com, I projected the primary skill players and predicted a score for Dallas vs. St. Louis in Week 3:

Tony Romo’s Comps vs. St. Louis

As I did last week, I’ll examine player comps – similar players versus comparable defenses – to project the most important guys. And when we look for players with similar recent stats to Romo playing against defenses comparable to that of the Rams, this is what we get:

The average line for those guys is 24-for-37 (64.5 percent) for 282 yards (7.62 YPA), 1.92 touchdowns, and 0.64 interceptions, significantly better than last week.

We can break down the comps further to estimate Romo’s probability of achieving certain levels of success. Here are the touchdowns.

Unlike last week, Romo’s most likely outcome is two touchdown passes. There’s probably around a three-in-five chance that he tosses either one or two. He’s also got nearly a one-in-four chance to throw either none or at least four.

The Other Guys

Using the same methodology, let’s take a look at the average line for the Cowboys’ other skill players:

  • RB DeMarco Murray:65 rushing yards, 0.48 rushing touchdowns, 3.4 receptions for 29 yards, 0.12 receiving touchdowns

I’ve been high on Murray all year, so I think there’s a really good chance that he turns things around. He’s contributing quite a bit as a receiver, and I think he’ll get going on the ground this week against the Rams.

As a side note, I’ve heard some talk about Murray underperforming because he’s a “straight-line runner.” I think we all already knew that, right? It doesn’t take a scout to see that Murray doesn’t juke many defenders. But you know who else is a straight-line runner? Jamaal Charles. And Chris Johnson. And even Adrian Peterson, to a degree.

Not every back is LeSean McCoy. Size and speed matter most for backs, and Murray has that. He’ll be fine.

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