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FanDuel, DraftDay Week 5 Optimal Plays

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I posted my daily fantasy optimal lineups over at 4for4. One is for FanDuel:

Players to AVOID on FanDuel in Week 5

QB Andrew Luck vs. SEA $8600

Luck is the worst value listed in our FanDuel Value Report. He has a horrible matchup against the Seahawks, with his only saving grace, perhaps, being that he might pile up some garbage time numbers. Even with the matchup, Luck is the seventh-priciest quarterback on FanDuel—more than Tom Brady and Colin Kaepernick.

RB Stevan Ridley @CIN $6300

If you’re looking for a cheap running back to use on FanDuel, skip Ridley. The Patriots don’t seem very eager to give him much of a workload and he’s got a difficult matchup in Cincinnati. You can have Knowshon Moreno for just $300 more of even Ryan Mathews for $300 less.

And the other for DraftDay:

RB Reggie Bush @GB $15150

One of the reasons I typically like Bush is that he can produce no matter the situation. If the Lions get down big to the Packers, you could argue Bush actually has more value since he’ll catch more passes, especially late in the game when Green Bay could be playing a prevent defense and allowing short throws to Bush underneath.

But at $15150, he’s somehow the fourth-priciest back on DraftDay. With Adrian PetersonDoug Martin, andAlfred Morris on bye this week, there’s really not much out there at the running back spot. You can do better than Bush, though, who costs more than Marshawn LynchDeMarco Murray, and Arian Foster. Heck, he costs nearly $500 more than Ray Rice.

WR Demaryius Thomas @DAL $18200

Calvin Johnson is the most expensive receiver on DraftDay, as expected, but Thomas is right there behind him at No. 2. Is that appropriate? Maybe, maybe not, but he shouldn’t be nearly $2k more than the third-ranked receiver in Julio Jones. Thomas is even $2100 ahead of Dez Bryant.

It’s not that Thomas won’t have a big game—we pretty much know he’ll have quality numbers—but I don’t think he’ll give you much more than what you’re paying for. Dallas has done a really good job on “X” and “Z” receivers this year, instead struggling with slot receivers (Victor Cruz), tight ends (Antonio Gates), and backs (Danny Woodhead). For the price, both Wes Welker and Julius Thomas probably offer more value.

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