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Running the Numbers: A Week 7 Cowboys-Eagles Prediction

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At DallasCowboys.com, I used player projections to predict a final score in Week 7:

A Look at Tony Romo

As usual, I’ll be using the rotoViz GLSP model to project Cowboys and Eagles players based on their comps – similar players facing comparable defenses. Here are Romo’s 25 closest comps versus the Eagles. Note that “heart” has already been factored in.

The app combs past data for quarterbacks with similar stats to Romo, so it’s no surprise to see a lot of the same names on the list: Matt Ryan (5), Peyton Manning (3) and, of course, Romo himself (4). The average stat line for these comps is 25-of-40 for 296 yards, 1.96 touchdowns, and 0.92 interceptions.

If we look at just how Romo has performed against defenses similar to Philly’s, the average line is 27-of-45 for 339 yards, 2.25 touchdowns, and 1.50 interceptions. That sort of game is probably about equal to the first line because, although Romo himself has more yards and touchdowns than all of his comps, he also has significantly more picks. That suggests we could be in for a bit of a rollercoaster ride on Sunday, which might or might not be a good thing.

Another piece of evidence that suggests a potentially volatile game from Romo is that many of his comps have performed close to the extremes – either a dominant performance or a really poor one. That’s reflected in Romo’s touchdown probability (based on the comps).

Of Romo’s 25 closest comps for this game, 40 percent have thrown either three or four touchdowns. That’s a high number. On the flip side, 44 percent have tossed either zero or one touchdown. While Romo’s average line is pretty standard or just slightly better than normal, the numbers suggest he’s set up for an outlying performance – either four-touchdown dominance or an ugly 250/1/3 sort of line.

Head over to DallasCowboys.com for the final score.

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