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Staking Bales: Week 5 Strategy and Value Plays

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At 4for4, I posted my Week 5 daily fantasy strategy, along with some value plays:

I think I’m going to lose money in Week 5. No really, if I could get even money on whether or not I’ll be profitable in Week 5, I think I’d take the ‘no’ side of that bet.

But that doesn’t mean I have a negative expectation for the week. Instead, based on how I’m planning to structure my leagues, I think there’s a decent chance that I’ll have a big week. I feel really good about my values this week, but a lot of them are high-ceiling/low-floor players. On top of that, there are a handful of QB-WR pairs I really like.

That makes for a lot of high-variance lineups, which are of course best utilized in tournaments. So I’m going to take some shots this week, playing an even higher percentage of tournaments than normal. Most of those will be at DraftKings since they’re paying out the top quarter of entrants in most tournaments, reducing some volatility.

So ultimately, I think my expectation for the week might look something like this:

  • 60% chance of -$100
  • 20% chance of breaking even
  • 20% chance of +$600

The potential outcomes are of course more diversified, but if that’s the general structure, my expectation would be +$60. I’d be profitable over the long run, but I’d lose money most weeks. If you’re the type of person who can’t 1) psychologically deal with losing money most weeks or 2) properly manage your bankroll to absorb consistent losses, then playing a lot of tournaments isn’t the right move for you.

So sorry Josh Moore, but it’s going to be a rough week! Can’t wait to lose your money.

Head over to 4for4 for the value plays.

 

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