Staking Bales: Week 6 Value Plays
My Week 6 value plays are up at 4for4.com:
Josh Moore and I were talking the other day and he had an awesome idea of creating a Venn diagram-esque visualization of player usage. I’m a master of browsing sports sites on the web, typing in Word, using Excel… and that’s it. The only visualizations I can create are 800 words in paragraph form.
But the concept behind Josh’s thought is an important one: actual lineups don’t matter nearly as much as picking valuable players and getting the best ones into lots of leagues. When it comes down to it, much of the lineup creation process is kind of just random. We always want to maximize upside in tournaments (by stacking or choosing high-variance players) and minimize downside in head-to-head leagues (by doing just the opposite), but for the most part, the exact player combinations are kind of overrated.
Instead, we’re just looking to obtain as much exposure to the best values that we can. Last week, I put tight end Julius Thomas into all of my DraftKings lineups (I’m hardly bragging since Week 5 was my worst all year). I rarely put one player into every league, typically hedging at least a bit to minimize my risk, but Thomas was so undervalued that I needed as much exposure to him as possible.
So as you play daily fantasy, remember that there’s a whole lot of week-to-week variance. You can have awesome projections and lose money just because you weren’t lucky in constructing your lineups. Or you could have a kick-ass lineup and lose to a handful of even better ones. That stuff happens.
So instead of assessing each and every lineup, grading it based on your results, let’s take a more process-oriented approach, understanding that continually getting the best values into your lineups will eventually pay off. You might get lucky one week and unlucky the next, but those peaks and valleys even out over the long-term. Focus more on your player exposure, playing the best values in the most lineups and the moderate values in fewer, and you’ll maximize your long-term gains.
Head to 4for4 for the values.