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Staking Bales: Week 7 in Daily Fantasy Football

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At 4for4, I posted my game plan for Week 7:

If you recall from Tuesday’s Week 6 recap, I’m up $112.93 on the initial $2k investment. I thought I’d be in a better position through six weeks, but it’s not horrendous considering I’ve taken quite a few shots in some big tournaments.

The reason that I’ve played a decent percentage of my bankroll in tournaments is because of the upside, obviously, which is enhanced by all of the bad money in them. Tournaments offer the best long-term money-making opportunity because all of the fish play them. But they’re also really volatile because, with low payout percentages, even the best players lose their entry fee more than they cash.

That’s why I’ve been playing a lot of DraftKings tourneys; most pay out the top quarter of entrants. It’s not like I can put $500 into them each week, though, considering my bankroll is still just above $2k. I also can’t enter a huge number of tournaments because that’s a recipe for losses.

If I enter a bunch of tournaments and use the same lineup, the results would be drastic from week to week. I’d likely either cash in almost all of them or lose all of my money. But if I enter a whole bunch of tournaments and then completely diversify my lineups to basically ensure cashing, all I’ll really do is slowly lose my money because I’d be playing sub-optimal players.

Remember, we’re always trying to balance playing optimal lineups with a little bit of risk-minimization. It’s smart to hedge against down weeks (or injuries to DeMarco Murray and Cecil Shorts) so that we don’t compromise the integrity of our bankrolls.

I also did another G+ Hangout with Josh Moore:

 

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