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Fantasy Football: Week 13 Values

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At 4for4, I posted results from Staking Bales, and I also provided some Week 13 Thanksgiving value plays:

You guys wanna hear a funny story? I had Josh Gordon in 75 percent of my lineups on Sunday morning, then took him out of every single one before kickoff.

Because of the wind.

I’m doing some research on wind speeds for my book and I’ve found that when the wind approaches 20 mph, passing production drops to 82 percent of what it is when the wind is below 5 mph. So I did some research, uncovered what I thought was a competitive advantage, implemented it, and lost hundreds of dollars.

BUT, not really. See, the same reasoning that led me to fade Gordon got me off of Victor Cruz and Wes Welker. It also led me to target Josh McCownColin Kaepernick, and Anquan Boldin.

Because of that, I had a pretty poor week heads-up but a profitable week in tourneys. Here’s how it broke down by site.

Site Start Finish Net
FanDuel 1370.78 1345.58 -25.20
DraftKings 199.60 271.10 71.50
StarStreet 371.21 328.53 -42.68
DraftDay 148.54 157.22 8.68
+12.30

 

Week 13 DraftKings Values

QB Matthew Stafford vs. GB $9,400

Is Stafford great value at $9,400? Hell no, but you have six quarterbacks you can theoretically choose. In my opinion, the pool is really just two—Stafford or Tony Romo. Stafford is $1,700 more expensive, but he’s also safer with higher upside.

And if you read last week’s article on thinking probabilistically, you know Stafford is a favorite of mine. Take the sure points.

 

RB Le’Veon Bell @BAL $6,000

There are better values than Bell, including Rashad Jennings at $100 cheaper, but here’s the thing…if you’re playing a Thanksgiving tournament, you’re going to need to diversify your lineup from the pack in some way. Jennings and perhaps Eddie Lacy are going to be very highly owned, but that might not be the case for Bell.

First, he’s kind of a boring back right now. Second, he has a difficult matchup against a Ravens defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest points to running backs. But there’s no good reason to think that Bell won’t see 20 carries and catch at least three passes, so he’s a decent bet for 100 total yards and a touchdown.

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