ICYMI: A look back at my 2013 Dallas Cowboys, NFL predictions
In case you missed it, I broke down my 2013 Cowboys predictions over at Bleacher Report:
I am of the opinion that every writer, analyst and expert covering any field should make specific predictions for which they should be held accountable. As it stands now, writers in particular sometimes have little incentive to make accurate predictions. With no skin in the game, what’s to stop them from simply making bold claims for the sake of drumming up controversy?
If all writers were forced to make very particular prognostications and then revisit those predictions to see where they went right and wrong, there would be a pretty strong incentive (pride and reputation) to get it right.
Most important, it would help readers understand who knows what they’re talking about and whose content is full of fluff. It’s really easy to look back on past events and analyze them after the fact, but it’s an entirely different endeavor to put yourself on the line in predicting what will take place in the future. It’s easier said than done.
This idea is why I make a number of very specific preseason predictions, as well as scrutinize the predictions after the season.
In 2012, I had what was, at the time, my best year in regards to Cowboys-specific predictions. I analyzed all of them right here, so you can check out my accuracy.
I say “at the time” because I think my 2013 predictions were even more accurate. I’ve listed the majority of them in this slideshow, both good and bad. I actually believe the predictions that go wrong are much more valuable because 1) I can determine if I indeed made a mistake (sometimes you can make a great prediction that simply doesn’t pan out) and 2) I can tweak the models or numbers I use to make predictions to enhance future accuracy.
Also, I just remembered to take a look at my preseason standings/playoff predictions. I posted those at Dallas News.
- Wild Card Round
Saints over Redskins
Cowboys over Falcons
Patriots over Dolphins
Bengals over Titans
- Divisional Round
49ers over Cowboys
Packers over Saints
Broncos over Bengals
Patriots over Texans
NFC Champion: 49ers
AFC Champion: Broncos
Super Bowl Champion: Broncos
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton
Offensive MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Defensive MVP: J.J. Watt
Offensive Rookie of the Year: DeAndre Hopkins
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Dion Jordan
My preseason Super Bowl prediction of Niners-Broncos is still alive. If you want to know the likelihood that my preaseason prediction comes to fruition, you can see the odds right here.