100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 4: Beware of the Post-Contract-Extension Bluew
I’m going to have a big announcement in the coming days regarding my books and draft packages for the year. I haven’t released any information thus far, but today’s fantasy football “tip” comes as an excerpt from one of the books. I won’t tell you which one or what it’s about, but here’s the sample.
It’s your lucky day. Your boss just praised you and your value to the company, so much so that he’s rewarding you with a five-year, $60 million contract extension. You never topped six figures in a year, so the jump in salary is literally never going to happen awesome.
With $12 million in the bank in the first year, are you going to be as motivated to perform as you were when you were struggling to get a promotion? Be honest with yourself. You might come out of the extension on fire to prove to your boss that he made the right call, but eventually that motivation will dissipate.
Then you’ll just be stuck there at a job you really don’t like, wishing you could leave to go play with your millions of dollars, with zero motivation to help the company grow. Well, that’s the position I’d be in, anyway. If I suddenly had $12 million in the bank, I can promise you the quality of my writing would deteriorate in a hurry.
Does that mean I don’t take much pride in what I do? Yeah, maybe, I don’t know. But that’s what would happen, and I suspect the same lack of motivation would also strike a lot of young NFL players. Anecdotally, I’ve always thought that certain types of players—the ones who are motivated to play more for monetary gains than to truly improve their craft—rarely seem to provide their teams with a return on their investment.
But I didn’t know for sure, so I ran some numbers.
THE NUMBERS ON THE POST-CONTRACT DOWNFALL
To test this theory, I researched the current largest contracts in terms of guaranteed money. I sorted them by position, analyzing just over five dozen players in total. I charted their average fantasy rank (at their position) in the two years prior to their massive contract extensions versus (when applicable) their average fantasy rank in the two years afterward.
Here are the quarterbacks I studied. The smaller the bar, the better the ranking.
The biggest drop in play came from Mark Sanchez, although he should have never been given a contract extension in the first place. Overall, there certainly appears to be an effect here.
Of the quarterbacks I analyzed, the average drop in fantasy rank was 3.5 spots. While that might seem insignificant, it’s actually 38.0 percent of their pre-contract rank.
Keep an eye out for the announcement. You can buy my current books on this site or Amazon.