100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 13: Consider Pairing QB and WR
Today’s tip is to consider “stacking” a quarterback and wide receiver on the same team. It’s a high-risk/high-reward maneuver, which could be smartest in a best-ball or total-points league. The passage below is from my new book Fantasy Football for Smart People: 25 Mysteries Solved to Help You Draft a Better Team.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN QB AND WR PRODUCTION
There are a handful of ways to determine if pairing a quarterback and wide receiver on the same team is “worth it” in traditional fantasy football leagues. I chose to look at how often receivers kill it when their quarterbacks do the same versus how frequently the two “tank” together.
Looking at quarterbacks who played full seasons over the past two years, I broke down their production into buckets, analyzing their top four and top eight games. Here’s how the production for their WR1 and WR2 looks in those buckets.
If a wide receiver’s play weren’t tied to that of his quarterback, we’d expect a wide receiver to have a top four fantasy game—that is, one of his best four games on the year—25 percent of the time when his quarterback does the same. So we’re looking at a quarterback’s top four (or top eight) fantasy games, then determining how frequently his wide receivers turn in the same sort of performance.
Well, both WR1s and WR2s produce top-four and top-eight games at a rate greater than what would be produced from chance alone, which is what we’d expect. When a quarterback has a top-four performance, there’s a 40 percent chance that his No. 1 wide receiver also has a top-four performance and a 33 percent chance that it happens for his No. 2 wide receiver.