100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 30: Get in Thursday-Night daily leagues.
Today’s tip comes with data via my book Fantasy Football (and Baseball) for Smart People.
Thanks to DraftKings, we can now actually dig into the data to see what’s going on in Thursday leagues versus those that start on Sunday. And this is really what daily fantasy is all about, too—testing theories in a scientific manner to see if what we “know” to be true is indeed the way we presume. So here’s a look at some actual DraftKings data from the 2013 NFL season.
Although the effect seems small, keep in mind that these are the average scores over every single league. You can see there’s a larger deviation in points in Thursday night leagues; the average lineup scores one less point than those in normal Sunday leagues, but the winning score is one point better.
To give you an idea of why those numbers are actually significant, consider a 5,000-team GPP in which the average score is 129. How many lineups would need to tank (we’ll say that’s a score of just 100, which would have no chance at winning anything) to get that average to drop to 128?
The answer is 174! It would take 174 lineups of just 100 points to drop the average from 129 to 128. That’s 3.5 percent of lineups, which is very significant in a GPP.