The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football


100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 35: Start QBs on Home Underdogs

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From my new book Fantasy Football for Smart People: Daily Fantasy Pros Reveal Their Money-Making Secrets:

You can of course use Vegas props to project quarterbacks and receivers, too, and I also think the game location is important. Specifically, I like to target quarterbacks who are playing at home. Take a look at their passing efficiency over the years.

Home YPA

There are probably a lot of reasons for this effect, but ultimately there’s a lot of value in targeting quarterbacks on home underdogs. First of all, they’re likely to have greater efficiency than on the road. Second, they’re probably going to throw the ball often as an underdog. Third, they’re far less likely to be conservative early—something that coaches who are pussies still do on the road way too much—so you have the perfect storm of throwing the ball often and well.

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