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100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 47: Risk Ratings

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One of the new features I added to my 2014 draft package is a risk/reward rating for each player. I used a bunch of different data to create those ratings, one of which is a grouping of historical comps for each player, generated by the Similarity Score apps at rotoViz.

Take a look at Marshawn Lynch’s 20 closest comps, for example:

Lynch Comps

Looking at relevant factors, the apps show you the 20 most similar players relative to Lynch in 2013 and how they performed in the subsequent season. The chart above is one of the reasons I’m so low on Lynch, and it’s reflected in my risk rating for him. A lot of players who are very comparable to Lynch have tanked in the past, with just a handful improving upon their numbers. There’s a chance that Lynch has a quality 2014 season, but there’s an even better chance that he plummets. It’s important to quantify the range of potential outcomes to understand the risk associated with each player.

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