100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 51: Using ADP to Generate Value
In case you missed it, I published an article at RotoWorld last week that examined how to take advantage of short-term fluctuations in perceived positional value and ADP. Here’s a peek:
I don’t know as much as I think I do about fantasy football. That might seem like a dumb thing to say for someone trying to give you advice on the topic, but I really believe that embracing the uncertainty inherent to the game—accepting what we don’t know or what we think we know that could just be wrong—is essential to progressing as a fantasy owner.
Think back a few years and consider your fantasy football knowledge. How many beliefs did you hold that just turned out to be wrong? How many poor predictions did you make? How many times did you tell everyone who would listen that Trent Richardson was worth a top-four pick last year? Maybe that last one was just me. The point is that it would be irrational to think that all of our beliefs about the 2014 season are accurate—even the ones that seem undoubtable—and we just need to accept the fact that we’re going to be wrong. A lot.
That doesn’t mean that drafts are total crapshoots and you’re no more likely than your Aunt Debby to win your fantasy league, though. One way to stand out from the crowd is to embrace year-to-year volatility, knowing where the crowd is going to overreact to recent results to make drafts inefficient. By and large, current season ADP is more or less a reflection of the prior year’s results.
In this article, I’m going to compare 2013 fantasy results to those from the previous four seasons to see where last year might be an outlier. In siding with five-year trends as the basis for our rankings, we’re basically saying “I don’t know exactly how things will turn out this year, but I realize there’s variance on the seasonal level, and in that case, I’m best off just going with the long-term average.”
Check out the full post at RotoWorld.