100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 71: Winning on DraftKings
RANGES OF OUTCOMES
When you create any daily fantasy lineup, you’re constructing a team with a range of potential outcomes, some good, some bad, some okay. The nature of that range depends on your player selection and the relationships you create within your lineup.
Basically, you’re looking to either increase or decrease the volatility of your lineup so that you can win certain leagues types. Here’s a sample breakdown of the probability of DraftKings scores based on whether you take a high-variance or low-variance approach.
When your team is low-variance, your score tends to inhabit a more narrow range of outcomes, or at least it has greater access to a moderate level of production. When it’s high-variance, the probability flattens out; there’s less chance of a moderate score and a higher probability of either a really low or really high score.
Your goal is to figure out how to construct your lineups so that they come close to matching these curves; you want more variance in tournaments so that your team will have a high enough ceiling to cash, but less variance in cash games so that you have more access to a decent score that will beat the average lineup.
I’m going to get into this idea and other league-specific strategies more in future posts, but I just want to quickly run through the two main ways you can increase or decrease lineup volatility.