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100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 72: Week 3 QB Analysis

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I’ve published a few different things over at DraftKings in the new Playbook blog. One of them was this breakdown of Week 2’s biggest tournaments.

I also broke down quarterbacks in Week 3:

Five Mid-Priced Quarterbacks

Nick Foles, Philadelphia vs Washington, $8500 – This is one of those situations in which a player’s ranking in terms of salary isn’t representative of his value. Foles is probably ranked accurately on DraftKings, but is he priced appropriately? At $8500, he’s barely cheaper than Brees, Manning, and Stafford.

The Redskins’ pass defense has looked outstanding through two weeks—fifth against opposing quarterbacks—and while much of that has to do with facing Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne, you’re still not getting a discount on Foles here. He’s one of many mid-range quarterbacks on whom I’m not high; I’ll likely either pay up for the big boys or go cheaper this week.

 

Jay Cutler, Chicago at NY Jets, $8100 – Cutler has lit it up thus far in 2014 with 525 yards and six touchdowns through two weeks. He has also completed over two-thirds of his passes in both games.

In Week 3, I think Cutler has a really wide range of outcomes against the Jets. I say that because Cutler actually hasn’t been all that efficient this year, averaging just 6.3 YPA. That’s a bad number and suggests that Cutler could struggle if he doesn’t get a lot of attempts.

If the Bears get up early with a couple Matt Forte scores, I could see a really poor outing for Cutler. Of course, he has the upside to light it up, too, so he’s certainly in play in GPPs.

 

Cam Newton, Carolina vs Pittsburgh, $7400 – The Pittsburgh defense isn’t what it used to be, but the Steelers have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. I could see Newton’s ownership being really low this week, so you could certainly consider pairing him with Kelvin Benjamin for a really unique stack in tournaments.

 

Kirk Cousins, Washington at Philadelphia, $7300 – Of the mid-priced quarterbacks who I will consider using in tournaments, Cutler and Cousins are the most interesting to me. Cousins’ usage will probably be pretty low because he recently soared up the salaries. A lot of people are going to see this price and be turned off.

The question we need to ask ourselves isn’t “Did Cousins’ salary jump too far?” but rather “Is the current price a good deal or not?” At $7300 against a poor pass defense and likely to rack up a lot of attempts, Cousins might be a sneaky smart play in Week 3.

 

Philip Rivers, San Diego at Buffalo, $7100 – Rivers is certainly in play against the Bills, but the question is who you’d want to use with him if you go that route. Antonio Gates is the obvious choice, but he’s also priced as the third-most expensive tight end this week—$200 more than Rob Gronkowski.

While others are forcing Gates in there after his ridiculous Week 2 performance, you might be able to find value and low tournament usage on Rivers to Keenan Allen.

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