100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 89: Week 5 Stats & The Importance of TDs
At RotoWorld, I posted a breakdown of Week 5′s interesting stats, as well as a look at the important of touchdowns in daily fantasy football.
Predicting WR Touchdowns
Again and again, we see the same receiver types scoring the majority of the touchdowns. That type is ‘big.’ While many people focus on wide receiver height, there’s actually a stronger correlation between weight and red zone efficiency.
That makes sense if you think about it. Big, strong receivers are able to get off of the line, fight for the ball in traffic, and otherwise not let defenders fight through them. Height matters, too, but there’s a limited supply of red zone touchdowns that are the direct result of a receiver going up to get the football; the majority of the time, it’s about being physical and out-muscling the defender.
Here’s a look at red zone efficiency broken down by weight for wide receivers and tight ends.
That’s a pretty obvious relationship. Here’s how it looks sorted into buckets based on weight.
There’s an improvement in red zone productivity in every weight class. Overall, receivers in the 217-244-pound range have been over 30 percent more likely to convert one of their red zone targets into a touchdown than a sub-198-pound receiver.
And take a look at the most efficient red zone receivers since 2000.
Of the 15 best scorers, only one has checked in below the league-average receiver weight of 203 pounds. The majority of these players—Dez Bryant, Marques Colston, Calvin Johnson, Vincent Jackson—have been substantially heavier than the league-average weight.
I also taped a “Game of Inches” segment explaining why I like Travis Kelce moving forward.