The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

Mar
7

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys Free Agency Primer: Outlook, Predictions & More

Category: All Film/Stats, Bleacher Report, Film/Stat Analysis, Recent Leave a Comment

At Bleacher Report, I published a few recent free agency previews for Dallas. The first has some news and my predictions for the Cowboys:

1. The Cowboys will free up enough cap space to sign one major free agent.

Dallas doesn’t have the best salary cap situation, but it also isn’t as bad as it initially appears. By doing everything it needs to do to trim away the extra fat, Dallas should be able to put itself in a position to sign a fairly high-priced free agent.

2. That player will be defensive tackle Henry Melton.

If the Cowboys do indeed sign a big-name player, Melton is perhaps the most likely. He fits with what Dallas wants in a 4-3 defensive tackle. You could argue that the Cowboys will want to wait to see what happens in the draft, but they really need two defensive tackles. Since signing Melton wouldn’t stop Dallas from drafting someone like Pitt’s Aaron Donald in the first round, the move makes sense no matter what the Cowboys want to do in the draft.

3. DeMarcus Ware will remain in Dallas.

The Cowboys have all the leverage and Ware knows it; he will probably take a pay cut to stay in Dallas.

4. Dallas won’t sign a defensive end.

Assuming Ware remains in Dallas, it’ll have him and George Selvie to start in 2014. There are a bunch of intriguing second-round defensive ends in the draft, and don’t forget that Tyrone Crawford has the versatility to kick outside. Since ends usually cost a pretty penny in free agency, it makes sense for Dallas to keep what it has and upgrade via the draft.

5. The Cowboys won’t re-sign a single one of their free agents.

This really comes down to whether or not Dallas will keep either Jason Hatcher or Anthony Spencer. Hopefully, the Cowboys have learned their lesson from handing out sizable contracts to aging players.

I also explained why I’m “buying” or “selling” certain rumors in Dallas:

The ‘Boys Should Sign a Free Agent RB

There’s perhaps no worse proposition in all of football than signing a veteran running back, but that hasn’t stopped many from speculating that the Cowboys could bring one in. Dallas Morning News listed Ben Tate, Rashad Jennings, and Donald Brown as possibilities.

The problem with running backs is that, outside of a few special talents like Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles, they’re extremely replaceable. Part of the reason for that is because they’re so dependent on their offensive lines for production. If the majority of running back success is due to factors outside of his control, why pay for one?

Another reason is that running backs enter the league at near-peak efficiency. If the Cowboys want another running back, which isn’t a bad idea with DeMarco Murray’s contract set to expire after the 2014 season, they should spend a mid-round pick on one. Just not a back who runs a 4.63 40-yard dash at 198 pounds.

Verdict: SELLING

And finally, a look at why I’d trade for Dolphins DE Dion Jordan:

Putting on the Pressure

Jordan’s rookie season in Miami was widely considered a bust because he recorded only two sacks. However, considering he rushed the passer only 206 times, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required) and was able to pressure the quarterback at an elite rate, Jordan’s first year wasn’t as bad as people believe.

Looking at pressure rate, which is the percentage of pass-rushing snaps on which a player hurries the quarterback, we see Jordan was actually really good.

Jordan didn’t play as many snaps as the other rushers, but the fact that he recorded a higher pressure rate than Greg Hardy, widely considered one of the top young pass-rushers in the NFL, shows you something.

So why only two sacks? Well, Jordan got unlucky. There’s good evidence to show that most pass-rushers bring down the quarterback on right around 25 percent of their pressures; that is, for every four times a pass-rusher hurries the quarterback, he typically records one sack. Getting to the passer is a skill, but obtaining a sack once you’re already there is a much more random occurrence.

If you examine Jordan’s sack-to-pressure ratio during his rookie year, you see it’s quite low.

You always want sacks, of course, but pressures are even more important than sacks when predicting future sacks. The fact that Jordan was able to reach the quarterback suggests he’s going to generate plenty of sacks in the NFL but was just unlucky in his rookie year. Based on his pressures alone, his most likely sack total was 4.5, not 2.0.

What About the Money?

One possible concern about trading for Jordan is his contract. The Cowboys don’t have very much cap space with which to work.

However, even as the No. 3 overall pick in 2013, Jordan’s contract is far from prohibitive. Over the Cap has his 2014 cap hit at only $4.7 million, with $16.8 million guaranteed remaining on his deal. In comparison, right tackle Doug Free’s 2014 cap number is $6.5 million.

Plus, the “real” cost of Jordan is his contract minus whatever the Cowboys would need to pay their first-round pick in 2014, since they’d move that selection in order to acquire Jordan.

Mar
3

By Jonathan Bales

5 Free Agency Moves Cowboys Should Avoid

Category: Bleacher Report, Recent Leave a Comment

At Bleacher Report, I broke down five moves the Cowboys should avoid during free agency. Here are two:

Re-Signing DE Anthony Spencer

The Cowboys have a decision similar to that of Hatcher when it comes to defensive end Anthony Spencer. Unlike Hatcher, however, Spencer 1) is still at an age when many pass-rushers are productive (30) and 2) isn’t coming off of a career year.

When Spencer got injured and was lost for the 2013 season, it severely deflated his market value. The question is how much. If the Cowboys can re-sign Spencer at a price that fully represents the fact that he hasn’t played a full game in over a year, then they might be able to work something out.

However, Spencer is likely looking for a long-term deal. The Cowboys aren’t in a position to give any free agent much guaranteed money, so assuming his market value hasn’t sunk dramatically, the Cowboys should let him walk.

Overlooking Right Tackle as a Need

We know the Cowboys are weak basically throughout their defense, but one of the rarely mentioned needs of this team is right tackle. Current starter Doug Free started really hot in 2013, which may have caused people to overlook the fact that he was horrible down the stretch.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Free allowed 34 pressures and six sacks, both of which were the most on the team. After yielding four total pressures in the first five games (0.80 pressures per game), he allowed 30 in the final 11 games (2.72 per game). If he maintained that latter pace for 16 games, Free would have allowed the third-most pressures in the NFL in 2013.

The offensive tackle free-agent class is pretty deep, so there are going to be some decent players who can be had rather cheaply. It might make sense for Dallas to bring in a player like Charles Brown, a 26-year old former second-round pick, to at least give Free some competition.

Feb
20

By Jonathan Bales

5 Defensive Ends Who Make Sense for Dallas

Category: "Potential Draft Picks" Series, All Draft, All Film/Stats, Bleacher Report, Draft, Film/Stat Analysis, Recent Leave a Comment

At Bleacher Report, I broke down five defensive ends who I like for Dallas in this year’s draft. Here’s a preview:

The Dallas Cowboys are clearly in the market for a difference-making defensive end; veteran DeMarcus Ware is rapidly declining and 2013 breakout player George Selvie is a No. 2 rusher at best. In addition to defensive tackle, there’s perhaps nowhere the ‘Boys can help themselves more than at defensive end.

The key to finding value at any position is identifying predictors of success that other teams aren’t valuing, or at least aren’t valuing enough. At the wide receiver position, for example, most NFL teams pay for speed when they should be more concerned with size. At quarterback, they seek height when it appears as though hand size is more important.

At defensive end, a lot of teams seem to dismiss college production. They think they can spot talent with the “eye test,” frequently overrating defensive ends who look the part but haven’t gotten to the quarterback at a high rate.

One of the traits teams overvalue seems to be quickness. Certainly quicker is better for every player, but even more important is size. Overall, teams do indeed pay for one aspect of size in height. Height is indeed correlated with NFL success for defensive ends, but as with quarterbacks, that might just be because it’s linked to another trait that matters more. For defensive ends, that characteristic is long arms.

Even though many NFL organizations look at arm length, they’re still acting as though height matters more. We continually see tall players with short arms get drafted ahead of short players with long arms. The latter type of prospect might actually offer the most value, since they possess the trait that helps get to the passer (long arms) but not the one that shoots them up boards (height).

In that way, not all lengths of arm are created equally. A 6’2″ defensive end with 33-inch arms is better than a 6’5″ end with the same arm length because the shorter player is more likely to fall (unnecessarily), and thus offer value.

Valuing both college production and arm length, here are five defensive end prospects the Dallas Cowboys should consider in this year’s draft.

 

Scott Crichton, Oregon State

College Production: 22.5 sacks, 51 tackles-for-loss in three seasons

Height: 6’3″

Arm Length: Unknown

Projection: Early Second Round

Oregon State defensive end Scott Crichton is a really interesting prospect. At 6’3″, Crichton is rumored to have good length for his height. That’s the perfect combination when seeking value at defensive end. It will be really interesting to see how Crichton measures up at the combine; if his arms check in at 33 inches or longer, that’s a great sign.

Crichton was also quite productive in college. Teams will obviously look at sack totals, but tackles-for-loss are just as valuable. They represent the same sort of explosiveness to get into the backfield. Actually, when a defensive end has a ton of tackles-for-loss but a moderate amount of sacks, it could be a sign that he just got unlucky with bringing down the passer, which will improve in the future.

The Cowboys would probably need to pick up Crichton in a trade down from the No. 16 overall pick.

 

Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas

College Production: 26 sacks, 49.5 tackles-for-loss in four seasons

Height: 6’4″

Arm Length: Unknown

Projection: Second Round

Like Crichton, Texas’s Jackson Jeffcoat is rumored to have “significant arm length.” He won’t drop because of his height, which is about average for a defensive end, but he still seems undervalued with a second-round projection.

Jeffcoat had 26 sacks in four years at Texas, but he was quite dominant recently. He played only a handful of games in 2012, but in his last two full seasons, Jeffcoat averaged 18 tackles-for-loss and 10.25 sacks.

The Cowboys might be able to pick up Jeffcoat in the second round without moving up.

Head to BR for the full article.

Feb
18

By Jonathan Bales

Why Cowboys Should Probably Trade Down in First Round

Category: All Draft, All Film/Stats, Bleacher Report, Draft, Film/Stat Analysis, Recent Leave a Comment

At Bleacher Report, I explained why the Cowboys should trade down in the first round. Here’s an excerpt:

Exploiting the Chart

Because teams still use the original trade chart to make moves, the Cowboys can exploit inefficiencies in the way the chart is constructed relative to how players actually perform. That is, they can and should look for areas on the chart where the cost of trading is less than the value of they player(s) they can expect in return.

Looking at historic NFL production, here’s a chart displaying approximate value versus the cost of each pick, both as a function of the overall value. According to the chart, for example, the top overall pick accounts for five percent of the total value, but in reality, the No. 1 overall selection has accrued around just 2.5 percent of the class’s total approximate value.

The cost of the draft’s top picks is massive. Teams trading up into the top 10, especially, need to be extremely confident they’re acquiring a future star, because the cost of the picks is far more than the production that can normally be expected.

You can see that the cost of trading surpasses the expected production up until around the 20th overall selection. At that point, the cost of draft selections on the original trade value chart drops quite a bit, yet there are still quality players in that range.

That trend continues for a few rounds; in terms of historic production, the largest inefficiencies exist from the back of the first round into the third and fourth rounds. That’s the area where the most value exists when you consider the price of each pick.

 

First-Round Trade Results

This isn’t just a mathematical trick that has little basis in reality. We can look at past first-round trades to see that teams trading down in the round (or out of it altogether) have found a ton of success.

Teams trading down in or out of the first round have accrued the best player 50.9 percent of the time. That’s amazing since the reason a team trades up is because they think they’ll acquire the best player. The numbers suggest that if you believe you’ll get the best player by trading up in the first round, think again.

You might think that because trying to guess the team that will get the top player in a first-round trade is basically a coin flip, it doesn’t matter if you move up or down. However, if it’s really a coin flip, the smart things to do would be to 1) maximize opportunities and 2) do it as cheaply as possible. Why trade up to get something you can probably have later?

Further, teams trading down have acquired 64.4 percent of the total player value in those trades. The numbers are staggering.

 

Loading Up and Accounting for Fallibility

Again, the Cowboys should be trying to maximize their chances of hitting by loading up on picks where the greatest inefficiencies exist. They actually tried to pull this off last year, trading back from the middle of the first to the back of it, grabbing an extra third-rounder in the process. Whether or not they saw the proper return, they at least tried to make a move that was statistically prudent.

Central to the idea that you should accrue draft picks is understanding your own fallibility. Teams trade up as though they’re sure the player they covet is going to be as good as they believe, but it’s not that black-and-white. There’s a lot of uncertainty that goes into drafting, so teams need to account for that.

Further, teams that trade up are typically selecting a player who is an outlier on their board. If that team didn’t have him ranked much higher than others, he probably wouldn’t still be available. By accounting for the fact that they could be wrong in their assessment of said player, the Cowboys and other teams considering trading up might think again.

The common rebuttal is that every situation needs to be taken on a case-by-case basis and that every player is unique, but that line of thinking is probably what’s gotten teams who trade up in trouble. Every player and situation is unique, sure, but teams drastically overrate their ability to predict the future.

To get the best in a trade-up, teams basically need to think they know something that 31 other teams don’t, which will rarely be the case. Once teams accept that they just don’t know as much as they think they do, it will become easier to recognize the dangers of trading up and the value of maximizing draft picks.

Put another way, consider two dart throwers, one with zero skill and one with perfect skill. The first has a low probability of hitting a bulleye on a given throw, so he wants as many darts as possible. The latter can hit a bullseye every time, so if that’s the goal, he needs only one dart.

NFL teams have been acting as though they’re perfect (or near-perfect) dart throwers. When they realize that there’s just a whole lot more uncertainty involved in the process – when they realize the market itself forces them into being low-skill dart throwers – they’ll act differently, maximizing opportunities and minimizing cost.

Read the full analysis right here.

Feb
16

By Jonathan Bales

8 Prospects to Watch at NFL Scouting Combine

Category: All Draft, Bleacher Report, Draft, Recent Leave a Comment

At Bleacher Report, I broke down eight prospects to watch in next week’s NFL Scouting Combine. Here’s a preview.

The measurables recorded at the NFL Scouting Combine should matter to every NFL team, including the Dallas Cowboys. Measurables are important because they allow us to quantify what we see on the field, which in turn allows for a scientific approach to football.

Science is marked by improvement—namely an improvement in predictions. We can sit and watch game film all day, but how do we improve that process? How do we get beyond “this guy has great hips” to make more accurate predictions?

With analytics, we can run tests to see which metrics are the most important, creating models to aid us in making predictions. The key, though, is that different measurables matter for different positions. The 40-yard dash, for example, is extremely important for players at certain positions, while basically useless at others.

The degree to which a measurable is useful extends only insofar as it helps make better predictions about a prospect’s future. One of the common qualms with a drill like the 40-yard dash is that “players almost never run 40 yards in a straight line during a game.”

Who cares? Employees don’t need to take IQ tests during work hours, but that doesn’t make an IQ test completely useless when screening job candidates. If a measurable helps us forecast the future, it’s useful, regardless of whether or not it occurs during a game.

With that in mind, here are eight prospects who the Dallas Cowboys (and you) should monitor during the NFL Scouting Combine, along with the measurable that might be the most important.

Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State

What to Watch: Arm Length

Tall pass rushers perform better than short ones in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean teams should do everything they can to draft tall ones. Actually, it’s the short pass rushers with long arms who often offer the most value.

Teams pay for height in defensive ends, so those who are tall with long arms often don’t provide a great return. Those who are short with long arms, however, can find a ton of NFL success, but they come with a much cheaper price tag.

Oregon State’s Scott Crichton is relatively short at 6’3” and there are rumors that he has good length, but we don’t know for sure. He’ll be an outstanding second-round value if his arms are long compared to his height.

Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State

What to Watch: 40-Yard Dash

The Cowboys should draft a wide receiver in 2014. There are someearly-round wide receiver prospects who should intrigue Dallas, and Penn State’s Allen Robinson is one of them.

If you’re a fan of Robinson, you should root for him to run a mediocre 40-yard dash. Wait, what?

Although teams seek speed in wide receivers, the 40-yard dash isn’t all that predictive of NFL success at the position. Instead, size matters most, and Robinson has it.

Robinson is fighting with a group of talented wide receivers to sneak his way into the first round, but he could drop well into the second with a poor 40-yard dash. If he’s in the 4.55 range, that would be great—slow enough to drop but fast enough to excel in the NFL.

Michael Sam, DE, Missouri

What to Watch: Weight

Missouri defensive end Michael Sam is the exact sort of defensive end who can offer value on draft day because he’s short (6’2”) with long arms (33.25 inches). He’ll drop because of his lack of height, but Sam’s arm length suggests he should be able to produce in the NFL.

Also monitor Sam’s weight, which should be around 260 pounds. That’s up from his playing weight at Missouri, and he’ll need all the bulk he can get to play as a 4-3 defensive end. If Sam reports any heavier than 260 pounds, it will be interesting to see how he moves.

Some are arguing that Sam’s draft stock has fallen since admitting he’s gay, but that’s just another reason to be bullish on him. If Sam indeed drops because he’s gay, too short, or whatever, it will just allow whichever team drafts him to acquire a high-upside player at a bare minimum price.

Antone Exum, CB, Virginia Tech

What to Watch: 40-Yard Dash

Do the Cowboys need a cornerback? Maybe, maybe not. They’ve got a ton of money committed to the position, but all of it is going to players who stand under 6’0” and weigh less than 200 pounds. You can never have too many talented cornerbacks and second-year man B.W. Webb struggled badly in his rookie campaign, so perhaps the ‘Boys will once again look at the position late in the draft.

If they do, Virginia Tech’s Antone Exum should be on their radar. At 6’0”, 220 pounds, Exum is absolutely massive. He’s the type of cornerback who could dramatically help the Cowboys in the red zone right out of the gate.

Speed is so crucial for cornerbacks, though, so Exum’s 40-yard dash will be important. If he can clock in under 4.50, he’ll probably be highly undervalued.

Head to B/R for the other four prospects.

Feb
13

By Jonathan Bales

Why Cowboys Need a WR and 5 They Should Consider

Category: "Potential Draft Picks" Series, All Draft, All Film/Stats, Bleacher Report, Draft, Film/Stat Analysis, Recent Leave a Comment

At Bleacher Report, I explained why I think wide receiver is an underrated position of need for Dallas. I also proposed five players I believe will develop into true No. 1 options in the NFL. Here’s the full article, with a sample and two of the wide receivers posted below.

———————————

The Dallas Cowboys could benefit from selecting a potential No. 1 wide receiver in the 2014 NFL draft.

That’s not a popular opinion, as wide receiver is considered a position of relative strength for Dallas, but the Cowboys could be in monumental trouble if Dez Bryant gets injured, or even if defenses commit more to taking him out of games.

Do the Cowboys have positions at which an upgrade would provide more immediate value? Yes. But outside of quarterback Tony Romo, there’s no loss the Cowboys could afford less than that of Bryant; with the current roster, his absence would result in the death of all offensive efficiency.

He’s that important.

Furthermore, wide receivers are undervalued as a whole. As quarterbacks release the ball more quickly in today’s NFL, the importance of the offensive line decreases. Meanwhile, the same wide receiver types dominate and help quarterbacks as much as an elite quarterback can help his pass-catchers. That “type” is big, physical and efficient in the red zone.

Without Bryant, the Cowboys would be in trouble as they approach the goal line. They need to convert yards into points, and players like him do that.

One reason the Cowboys should target a wide receiver in this year’s class is that there are a number of potential No. 1 wide receivers—meaning someone is probably going to drop too far.

Second, NFL teams are valuing the wrong traits in wide receivers, paying too much for speed and not enough for size, youth and college production. That creates marketplace inefficiencies.

I’ve done a lot of research on the importance of height and weight for wide receivers, and there’s a wealth of data that shows they’re more vital than top-end speed.

Everyone agrees that younger is better for any prospect, but NFL teams don’t act like it. Younger players are superior not only because they can play in the league longer, but because they were forced to play older college competition. When a 19-year-old receiver dominates in the SEC, for example, that’s much more impressive than when a 23-year-old does it.

The Cowboys actually fell for this trap last year with their selection of Terrance Williams. The pick wasn’t necessarily a poor one because he still fell pretty far into the third round, but he played much of his rookie season at age 24. In comparison, left tackle Tyron Smith, who has been in the NFL for three seasons, won’t turn 24 until December.

Finally, college production is important for wide receivers. If a guy is going to excel in the pros, chances are that he did it in college. But instead of analyzing bulk receiving stats, it seems more valuable to look at market-share stats, which better predict NFL success. Popularized by rotoViz, market share is the percentage of a team’s receiving yards/touchdowns for which a player accounts.

If a wide receiver has 10 touchdowns on an offense with 30 total receiving touchdowns, his market share of touchdowns (0.33) would be the same as if he had 15 touchdowns on a team with 45 total scores.

Market-share stats are useful for a number of reasons, but one of the most important is that they account for team/quarterback strength. It’s more impressive when a wide receiver dominates on an otherwise poor offense with a lackluster quarterback than when one excels with an elite passer.

So without further ado, here are five wide receivers the Cowboys should consider in 2014. All have an elite combination of size, age and college production.

Allen Robinson, Penn State

Size: 6’3”, 210 pounds

Age: 20

msYds: .46

msTD: .29

Penn State wide receiver Allen Robinson might be my favorite player in the entire class. With all of the talk about some of the other players at his position, he is the big, young receiver whom no one is mentioning.

You’d like him to be slightly heavier, but he’s far from undersized at 210 pounds, and he has the frame to add some bulk. His final market-share yardage number was through the roof since he had 1,432 yards on 97 catches, but he scored just six times. That might be a concern if he hadn’t scored 11 times in his age-19 season in 2012.

My praise of Robinson is probably the largest you’ll see because I think he’s a less-hyped version of A.J. Green and an inevitable stud at the next level. Dallas would be lucky to land him in Round 2.

Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt

Size: 6’3”, 209 pounds

Age: 21

msYds: .50

msTD: .47

At 6’3”, 209 pounds, Vanderbilt’s Jordan Matthews has a very similar build to Allen Robinson. He also had 112 catches during the 2013 season at age 21. His market-share numbers for both yards and touchdowns are through the roof.

Even though he is perhaps an even better option than Robinson, he has a much better chance to fall to Dallas in the second round. Because of how inefficiently NFL teams draft wide receivers, there’s even a chance that the Cowboys could trade back into the late second or early third and still grab Matthews.

Feb
11

By Jonathan Bales

Why Cowboys Must Re-Sign Dez Bryant

Category: Bleacher Report Leave a Comment

Wide receiver Dez Bryant is the most valuable player on theDallas Cowboys not named ‘Tony Romo,’ and it isn’t even close. With all of the salary cap trouble the Cowboys have had, their top priority needs to be re-signing Bryant.

In today’s NFL, wide receivers are more important than ever. As valuable as offensive linemen are to a quarterback’s success, you could argue a big, play-making receiver is even more vital. Quarterbacks are getting the ball out quicker than ever, as evidenced by their time spent in the pocket, recorded by Pro Football Focus(subscription required). That decreases the value of linemen and increases that of pass-catchers.

Further, Bryant is a scarce player. It’s not like the Cowboys can go out and find another receiver with his combination of size and ball skills. His skill set is irreplaceable.

Most people seem to understand that the Cowboys should re-sign Bryant, but few understand his worth. The guys atDallasCowboys.com discussed if the ‘Boys should re-sign Bryant or left tackle Tyron Smith. The answer is both, but it raises an interesting question: is Smith more valuable to Dallas than Bryant?

While we all know Bryant is a premiere wide receiver, I suspect many would either be torn on that proposition or side with Smith because of “how much more valuable the line is than wide receivers.” That might be the case for certain receivers, but not those who score at an astonishing rate. Let’s take a look at Bryant’s value to Dallas.

 

Dez vs. Megatron

Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL. But the gap between Megatron and Bryant perhaps isn’t as great as you might think.

On a per-route basis, Bryant’s first few years in the league have been comparable to Johnson’s.

I removed the receivers’ rookie years (which were very comparable) to judge them as they entered their career primes. Johnson broke out before Bryant in his second NFL season, but Bryant is right there with Johnson on per-route basis.

You could argue that Megatron has seen a lot more double-coverage than Bryant, but that’s probably offset by the number of targets he’s seen. Johnson’s yards-per-route is surely inflated from getting such a heavy workload; he’s averaged over 148 targets per year since entering the NFL, compared to only 118 for Bryant.

 

Touchdown-Scoring Ability

Bryant gets the ball into the end zone. NFL coaches (Jason Garrett included) seem to forget that the point of football is to score touchdowns. Yes, you need to move the ball up the field in order to do that, but teams that can consistently score touchdowns when they’re inside the red zone are going to win.

Both Bryant and Johnson are elite red zone players. As much as Johnson surpasses Bryant in many aspects of wide receiver play, you could argue that Bryant is the superior red zone threat. Going back to his time at Oklahoma State, Bryant has been one of the most efficient red zone receivers ever.

Looking at overall touchdown rate (the percentage of catches that result in touchdowns) in years 2-4, Bryant has kept pace with Megatron.

The Cowboys had a superior offense during the years studied, but take a look at the receivers’ career numbers for both touchdown rate and red zone touchdown rate.

Johnson’s numbers are well above-average, but Bryant has been perhaps the best red zone receiver in the NFL since he entered the league. He’s scored on 24 of his 58 red zone targets.

Read the rest at Bleacher Report.

Feb
7

By Jonathan Bales

Introducing RotoAcademy: A Fantasy Football School

Category: Fantasy Football, Recent Leave a Comment

I’m very excited to announce that I just launched RotoAcademy. RotoAcademy is a fantasy football training school built around a monthly newsletter that helps owners become elite.

Each month, those who enroll in RotoAcademy will receive a book-length PDF containing written, video, and audio fantasy football lessons developed by the world’s top players. RotoAcademy is a must-have educational tool for any serious fantasy football owner. Based around a scientific, mathematical approach to fantasy football, RotoAcademy will fundamentally change the way you approach the game. Want to learn more?

Feel free to download four free RotoAcademy lessons right here. I’m really pumped about this site and I’m confident you’ll find it of incredible value. Enroll today for the best rate.

Feb
7

By Jonathan Bales

6 Breakout Candidates for Dallas in 2014

Category: Bleacher Report, Recent Leave a Comment

At BR, I proposed six players on the Dallas Cowboys who I believe have a high probability of breaking out in 2014. You can see the full list through the link, but here are three of those players.

DE/DT Tyrone Crawford

The Cowboys had high hopes for defensive end Tyrone Crawford before he went down for the year during the 2013 preseason. Here are three reasons I love Crawford in 2014, whether he plays outside at end or kicks in to defensive tackle:

  • Arm Length
  • College Production
  • NFL Efficiency

Arm length is the best predictor of pass-rushing success. With 33.75-inch arms, Crawford falls into elite territory. He has the arm length and bulk to excel both inside and out.

Although Crawford wasn’t completely dominant at Boise State in regards to sacks (13.5 in two seasons), he had 27 tackles-for-loss.

And in 2012, Crawford was graded by Pro Football Focus as a top 10 defender in Dallas, despite playing only 303 snaps. That was Crawford’s rookie year, and he made a tackle on 6.6 percent of his snaps. In comparison, defensive end DeMarcus Ware checked in with a 6.2 percent tackle rate last year.

 

S Matt Johnson

We can’t use safety Matt Johnson’s history of on-field production as a sign of future success because there is none. His inability to stay on the field is obviously a major concern, and Johnson has gotten hurt so often that we can pretty much conclude he’s actually injury-prone (as opposed to experiencing a string of bad luck). That’s not a term I throw around loosely.

Still, the Cowboys are going to keep Johnson around because he’s cheap and has upside. Johnson is due only $495,000 in base salary in 2014, according to Over the Cap. This will probably be his last shot, but Johnson has the skill set to start in the NFL.

Here’s a comparison of Johnson to another safety in the NFL:

Johnson: 6-1, 215 pounds, 4.52 40-yard dash, 10-1 broad jump, 4.07 short shuttle, 6.84 three-cone drill, 38-inch vertical, 18 reps

Player X: 6-0, 214 pounds, 4.63 40-yard dash, 10-1 broad jump, 4.06 short shuttle, 6.78 three-cone drill, 38-inch vertical, 15 reps

‘Player X’ is 2013 first-round pick Kenny Vaccaro. That’s not to say that Johnson is the exact same player, but a 24-year old safety with Johnson’s combination of size and speed should get a few chances.


LB Bruce Carter

Linebacker Bruce Carter’s breakout was supposed to come in 2013. After an impressive 2012 season, though, Carter struggled some last season; after recording a tackle on 11.2 percent of his 2012 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Carter’s tackle rate dropped to 10.6 percent in 2012.

However, Carter’s year wasn’t as poor as everyone made it out to be. He had a couple poor performances in coverage in the early portion of the year, but he really picked it up down the stretch. Carter allowed 7.32 yards per attempt in 2012, and that number actually dropped to 6.67 YPA in 2013. He actually yielded over half of all the passing yards he gave up in the first four games of the year, ultimately allowing fewer than 20 yards per game over the final 12 contests.

Look for Carter, a highly athletic player whose struggles were overblown, to realize some of his upside in 2014.

Feb
4

By Jonathan Bales

Free Agents to Watch for Dallas Cowboys

Category: Bleacher Report, Recent 2 Comments

At BR, I analyzed a few free agents I think the Cowboys should consider this year. Here are two of them:

WR Danario Alexander

“But the Cowboys don’t need another wide receiver!”

Yes they do. Second-year man Terrance Williams was decent in 2013, but he didn’t do anything we shouldn’t have expected given his age. More importantly, he didn’t dominate in college until his final year, and there are some concerns that he doesn’t have the bulky Dez Bryant-esque body type that can excel in the red zone.

If something were to happen to Bryant or if defenses do everything in their power to take him out of games, where will the Cowboys turn? Williams isn’t ready to become a No. 1 receiver. Wide receivers Dwayne Harris and Cole Beasley certainly aren’t more than role players. Tight end Jason Witten is on the way down.

Meanwhile, the Chargers’ Danario Alexander is a player with an elite skill set who has yet to break out in the NFL because of excessive injuries. Is he injury-prone? Yeah, he might be. But everyone already thinks that, so it’s going to be priced into his contract. That means there’s little downside to signing him but massive upside if he can stay healthy.

Alexander is really the prototypical sort of low-risk, low-cost, high-upside player Dallas should be seeking.

Sign of Success: elite size

 

OT Charles Brown

A second-round pick in 2010, offensive tackle Charles Brown didn’t get extended playing time until the 2013 season.

He wasn’t good. He gave up 33 pressures and seven sacks with the Saints, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Because he’s failed to live up to expectations in the NFL, Brown’s cost should be low. If it’s low enough, he’s certainly worth the risk. Still only 26 years old, Brown has played just over a season’s worth of snaps in his four-year career. In that way, he too is a Selvie-esque free agent who struggled in limited early action but has the skill set to be a dominant player.

Brown’s addition would be smart because right tackle Doug Free struggled down the stretch in 2013. Free might improve in 2014, but there’s probably an even better chance that he was simply playing better than he should have to start the season and returned to form later.

Sign of Success: 35.25″ arms

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