Buy Fantasy Football for Smart People

In 2012, I wrote Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft. It is an in-depth analysis of fantasy football draft strategy. In writing the book, my goal was to provide advanced material for experienced fantasy football owners and “bottom line” analysis for novices. You can see that in this sample chapter. The book is not a collection of player rankings or projections, but rather an assessment of various draft strategies and fantasy football tenants. It is my hope it will provide a solid foundation from which you can improve as an owner to dominate your draft.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: The Most In-Depth Introduction You’ll Ever Read

This is an introduction, but I dive right into complex draft strategy, explaining how position scarcity, consistency, game theory, and league requirements are the four pillars of fantasy football draft strategy.

• How to use scarcity at a position to acquire maximum value
• How to use your opponents’ beliefs to get the best players
• Why predictability is more important than projected points

Chapter 2: Why Week-to-Week Consistency is (Almost) Worthless

An explanation of why weekly projections are of little value, why season-to-season consistency is invaluable, and how to implement risk

• Why you should start a nearly identical lineup each week
• How to create tiered rankings that implement players’ risk
• When and how to take gambles during your draft

Chapter 3: Season-to-Season Consistency: Why It Matters and How to Use it

The strength of correlation of fantasy football statistics from one year to the next

• How stats like rushing, receiving, and passing yards/touchdowns translate  from one season to another
• Why defenses and kickers are almost entirely unpredictable
• Why a quarterback or top-tier running back should be your first-round selection
• Why tight ends are the most consistent players in fantasy football and drafting one early in 2012 might not be a poor idea
• How to use “hidden” stats like quarterback rushing yards to gain a draft advantage

Chapter 4: Tier-ing Up: How to Create Basic Projections and Tiered Rankings

Basic projection philosophy, including how to use consistency, risk, and average draft position to create rankings

• A basic formula to create projections
• How to make tiers in your rankings
• Why you should almost never take the best player available on your board (for real)
• Why drafting near the end of a round is advantageous

Chapter 5:  More on Position Scarcity

A short chapter on scarcity and VORP draft strategy

• Why Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski might be the perfect 1-2 combination in 2012
• Why you can grab quality wide receivers late

Chapter 6: Identifying Value: Regression, Randomness, and Running Backs

Using stats to identify breakout players and dispel fantasy football “trusisms”

• How to identify undervalued players
• Why running backs with lots of carries aren’t really being overworked or overvalued
• How to predict running backs’ yards-per-carry

Chapter 7: Getting Bullish: What the Stock Market Can Teach Us About Fantasy Football

How fantasy football is incredibly similar to the stock market (and what we can learn from the latter)

• Why a player’s value can be different for different teams
• How to “buy low” and “sell high” during your draft
• How to utilize public perception
• Why your focus shouldn’t be securing the most projected points with each pick, but rather “losing” the least

Chapter 8: The Ultimate Draft Plan: From Projections to Selections

Creating an overarching draft plan to dominate your draft

• Specific formulas to project player stats
• How to factor league requirements into your rankings
• Sample breakdowns of Matt Ryan and Steve Smith
• How to create player power ratings and turn them into the ultimate big board

Chapter 9: Don’t Mock Me: Oh, now wait. Go ahead.

Taking you through three mock drafts I completed in May

• Notes on all 45 draft picks
• Tips on strategy from specific draft slots

You can buy the book on Amazon in Kindle or paperback.