Bill Callahan’s Play-Calling History, Tendencies

At Dallas Morning News, I revisited Bill Callahan’s history as a play-caller.

In Callahan’s first year as the Raiders’ offensive coordinator, Oakland posted poor offensive statistics. They checked in at 21st in the NFL in points, primarily because they turned over the football more often than all but two teams. They also ranked only 18th in rushing efficiency and 25th in passing efficiency.

By Callahan’s second season, however, the Raiders were on their way to creating an offense that would be among the league’s best in a number of categories for the next four seasons. From 1999 to 2002, Callahan’s Raiders averaged the following ranks:

• Net yards-per-attempt: 6th (Best: 3rd, Worst: 8th)
• Yards-per-carry: 12th (Best: 3rd, Worst: 26th)
• Points: 4th (Best: 2nd, Worst: 8th)
• Giveaways: 6th (Best: 2nd, Worst: 12th)

Those are some pretty darn good numbers over a four-year period; the Raiders never ranked worse than 8th in points or net-YPA. In his final season in Oakland, however, Callahan’s offense took asteep drop. They finished 29th in net-YPA—down from 3rd just one year prior—13th in YPC, 26th in points, and 11th in giveaways.

In charting Callahan’s ranks while in Oakland, it’s easy to see that he led an above-average offense for quite some time. Callahan’s tenure in Oakland was bookended by two poor showings, likely leaving a bad taste in the mouths of Raiders fans and even those around the league.

It’s also interesting to see just how closely the Raiders’ rank in net-YPA resembles their final rank in points. If you recall, I’ve argued on numerous occasions that net-YPA is the most important individual stat in all of football. It’s actually a better predictor of future points even than past points scored, which is remarkable. It’s not really too much of a surprise that as the Raiders’ passing game thrived, they scored points. Meanwhile, Oakland ranked 26th in YPC in a season in which they scored the fourth-most points in the NFL and 13th in a season when they ranked second in points.

So yeah, let’s keep saying the Cowboys need to blindly run the ball.

In addition to his successes as a play-caller, I also examined some of Callahan’s tendencies:

54.1: Percentage of first downs on which the Raiders ran the ball

The Raiders ran the ball quite a bit on first down from 2000 to 2003. Their first-down run rate was even higher than the league average of 52.4 percent during that time. The Raiders’ first-down run rate through three quarters (54.5 percent) was even greater, suggesting Callahan really does like to attack on the ground early.

55.9: Raiders’ pass rate in all situations

In general, though, the Raiders passed the ball about as often as the average NFL team. Their overall pass rate through the first three quarters of games (56.3 percent) was slightly higher.

17.3: Raiders’ pass rate on 2nd and 1

Few coaches realize the value of 2nd and 1—a down and distance that holds maximum upside without much risk. Smart teams like the Saints often run play-action and throw deep on 2nd and 1 because they realize that the downside of an incompletion is minimal. Callahan is one of the coaches who has tended to run on 2nd and 1 to pick up the “sure thing.” From 2000 to 2003, the Raiders faced 75 plays on 2nd and 1 and passed on just 13 of them.

68.8: Percentage of 2nd and 10 plays on which Oakland passed

When a team faces 2nd and 10, it’s often because they threw an incomplete pass on first down. A lot of play-callers tend to run the ball on 2nd and 10 following an incompletion because they think they’re “mixing it up.” In their futile attempts to randomize their play-calling, however, coaches actually become quite predictable on 2nd and 10. In 2003, NFL teams passed the ball only 55.8 percent of the time on 2nd and 10; that’s around the same as the overall rate in a situation in which teams should be passing a whole lot more often, regardless of the previous call.

Callahan’s Raiders passed the ball much more frequently on 2nd and 10 than most teams, though, suggesting Callahan could be superior to Jason Garrett as a “randomizer” of plays.

A Look Back at My 2012 Preseason Predictions

I think every writer and football analyst should make predictions. Most agree. But here’s a crazy idea: we should examine those predictions at the end of the season. Then we might be able to see who knows what the hell they’re talking about and who will continue to repeat that the Cowboys need to run the ball more if they want to win.

My obsession with predictions is why I make so many before the season and why I’ve openly published my game picks (you know, before the games actually happen) right here for the past three years. At Dallas News, I posted every one of my 2012 preseason predictions that I could find. Many were right. Some were wildly wrong.

Looking back at 2012, it was a pretty good year of predictions for me. Here they are:

Dez Bryant Will Be True No. 1 in 2012

Prediction: Bryant will have a 63.0 percent catch rate, 125 targets, 15.5 YPC, 1,224 yards, and 11 touchdowns.

Result: Bryant surpassed my expectations, slightly, with a 67.2 percent catch rate on 137 targets, 15.0 YPC, 1,382 yards, and 12 touchdowns.

Martellus Bennett Could Be Missed in 2012

Prediction: The loss of Bennett—one of the league’s best blocking tight ends—will hurt the running game.

Result: There are lots of reasons the Cowboys’ running game suffered in 2012, but much of it had to do with Bennett’s departure.

DeMarco Murray Won’t Rush for 1,500 Yards

Prediction: Murray will total between 950 and 1,050 rushing yards.

Result: Due to missing six games, Murray rushed for only 663 yards. Otherwise, he was on pace for 1,061.

Jay Ratliff’s Best Days for Cowboys Behind Him

Prediction: Ratliff will have just 20 tackles and two sacks in 2012.

Result: Ratliff ended the season with 10 tackles and zero sacks in six games.

Cowboys’ Interior Line Will Struggle in 2012

Prediction: The Cowboys’ guards and center will struggle at the point-of-attack.

Result: Exactly that.

Jason Witten’s Decline Inevitable

Prediction: Witten’s production will remain stable in 2012 before dropping substantially in 2013.

Result: In terms of receptions, Witten had an historic season. However, he also scored only three times and had the worst efficiency of his career in terms of both YPC and yards per route. We’ll see if his bulk production does indeed dip this year.

Why Barry Church Is Ready to Start at Safety

Prediction: Church will have a strong year as a starter.

Result: Injured in Week 3, we never really saw much of the safety.

Why Tony Romo Will Throw It Deep in 2012

Prediction: Romo’s deep ball rate will increase, perhaps to 15.0 percent.

Result: Romo did throw more deep passes than ever, but his rate—10.8 percent—didn’t increase much over previous seasons.

5 Bold Predictions for Cowboys’ Offense

Predictions: Dez Bryant will lead the NFL in touchdowns, Tyron Smith will allow fewer than four sacks, Jason Witten won’t top 850 receiving yards, DeMarco Murray will catch over 50 passes, and the Cowboys will win the NFC East.

Results: Bryant was second in the NFL in touchdown receptions—one behind Eric Decker, Smith allowed only three sacks, Witten had 1,039 yards with a career-high in targets, Murray was on pace for 56 receptions before getting injured, and the Cowboys clearly didn’t win the NFC East.

You can see more of my predictions right here.