Top 4 Most Crucial Players on the Cowboys in 2013

At DallasCowboys.com, I put forth my top four most crucial (non-Romo) players in 2013.

Just Missed the Cut

• Sean Lee/Bruce Carter: Lee and Carter are obviously talented, but the linebacker position isn’t of extreme importance relative to positions like defensive end and cornerback. Further, I think the Cowboys have decent depth with players like Justin Durant, Alex Albright andErnie Sims.
• Anthony Spencer: The Cowboys will undoubtedly have a rough time if either starting pass-rusher goes down, but Spencer’s production (certainly his ceiling production) is at least theoretically replaceable, whereas Ware’s probably isn’t.
• DeMarco Murray: I do indeed think there’s a big talent gap between Murray and rookieJoseph Randle; a quick look at their weight-to-speed ratios will confirm that. However, running back is such a dependent position that Murray’s value, and that for any running back, is minimal. Murray will go as the offensive line goes.
• Jason Witten: Some of you have asked how I can possibly claim that Witten’s play has been declining for years. This is how:

Now with two viable replacements, Witten’s importance, while still great, isn’t as monumental as it once was.

• Jason Hatcher/Jay Ratliff: I think Hatcher is far more important than Ratliff at this stage in their careers, but Hatcher just missed out on making this list because of the presence ofTyrone Crawford, Sean Lissemore, Ben Bass and other promising young talent inside.

The Top 4

4. CB Morris Claiborne/Brandon Carr

Claiborne and Carr average 5-11 ½, 201 pounds – excellent size for cornerbacks. They both checked in as low-end No. 1 cornerbacks in 2012 by allowing an average of 1.19 yards per snap that they were in coverage.

The Cowboys have two talented cornerbacks sitting behind Claiborne and Carr in Orlando Scandrick and B.W. Webb, but their mean size is 5-10, 185 pounds, quite a difference. Scandrick and Webb could both theoretically play outside, but they’re certainly smaller than ideal, especially in Monte Kiffin’s scheme.

Plus, since defenses basically use nickel personnel as their base these days, a Claiborne or Carr injury would affect two starting positions, forcing Scandrick outside and a fourth-round rookie into the nickel spot.

3. DE DeMarcus Ware

You knew Ware would be on this list, it’s just a matter of how high. I resisted placing him higher because, entering his age 31 season, Ware is reaching the age when many pass-rushers see a steep decline in play. Much of Ware’s 2012 “struggles” can be attributed to injuries, but that’s also a part of aging; as players get older, their chances of injuring themselves increase.

Nonetheless, Ware offers a pass-rush threat the Cowboys simply don’t have elsewhere. He draws attention and forces defenses to game plan to stop him, opening things up for the rest of the line.

Running the Numbers: Why Morris Claiborne Will Be a True No. 1 CB in 2013

At DallasCowboys.com, I explained why Morris Claiborne will be a lockdown cornerback in 2013:

1. Claiborne was already pretty good in 2012.

A few weeks ago, I labeled Claiborne as one of my breakout players. The primary reason is that he actually played pretty well as a rookie in regards to the stats that predict future success. Whether it was due to his own struggles or former defensive coordinator Rob Ryan’s scheme, Claiborne didn’t make the big plays everyone anticipated. But that doesn’t mean he didn’t cover well:

“When analyzing cornerbacks, I like to look at yards per route. That metric doesn’t penalize cornerbacks for having good coverage. If they aren’t targeted on a particular play, they’re rewarded for good coverage. Claiborne actually ranked in the top 25 in the NFL in yards allowed if we take into account all of the snaps he was in coverage. That suggests that Claiborne, despite hauling in just one interception, played as a low-end No. 1 cornerback in his rookie season. As the targets increase, so will the picks.”

Claiborne was targeted only 69 times as a rookie, 18 fewer than veteran Brandon Carr. That’s a good sign and suggests Claiborne was in proper position most of the time.

2. He’s going to play more zone coverage.

Fair or not, Claiborne will be judged on his ability to secure interceptions in 2013. With a year of experience and a shift in defensive philosophy, he should be able to deliver. The Cowboys are going to play a lot more zone coverage this year than they did under Ryan, meaning Claiborne will be able to read the quarterback more often as opposed to having his back turned to the passer while running with his man. Zone cornerbacks have historically been able to make far more plays than those who play primarily man coverage for just this reason.

Running the Numbers: 4 Reasons DeMarco Murray Will Break Out in 2013

At DallasCowboys.com, I explored DeMarco Murray’s potential in 2013:

1. Murray might not even be “injury prone.”

A lot of what we view as “injury proneness” is just an illusion. Injuries are a low-frequency event and, for the most part, very random. That means we’d expect the distribution of injuries to be rather random as well, regardless of whether or not some players are more susceptible to injuries than others.

Nonetheless, we’d still expect a few players to be more susceptible to injuries than others. It makes sense that some people’s genetic makeup is such that they’re unlikely to get injured and/or likely to heal quickly after getting injured. But that doesn’t mean we can predict future injuries with any sort of accuracy.

Even if injury proneness does indeed exist, it would take quite a long time to discover whether or not a player is truly more susceptible to injuries than average. Imagine that the typical player has a 10 percent chance to get injured in a given season and an injury-prone player has a 20 percent chance to get hurt. Even if that’s the case, we’d still need a pretty substantial number of seasons to pass before we could claim with any sort of certainty whether or not a player’s injuries were because he’s injury-prone or if he just got unlucky.

Predicting injuries is kind of like projecting fumble recoveries. The events are rare, and thus susceptible to randomness. And while important, using past fumble recoveries (or injuries) to predict future ones is basically useless. That means Murray might be injury prone, or he might not, but the nine games he’s missed in two seasons really can’t help us make that determination.

2. He has game-breaking speed.

I’ve talked quite a bit about how the most predictive trait for NFL running backs is speed. There will always be Emmitt Smith and Alfred Morris outliers, but on a pretty consistent basis, the best backs are the fastest ones. At 213 pounds, Murray turned in a blazing 4.41 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. He also had a 4.18 short shuttle and 10-4 broad jump, suggesting he’s truly an explosive athlete. We saw that on Murray’s 91-yard touchdown run against the Rams as a rookie. He possesses outstanding and borderline elite speed, especially for someone his size, and that’s important.

Running the Numbers: 4 Ways to Help a Running Game

At DallasCowboys.com, I proposed four ways the Cowboys can fix their running game. As you might have guessed, “blindly run it more often” didn’t make the list.

2. Pass the ball effectively.

When the Eagles were passing the ball more often than every other NFL team to start the millennium, they were frequently among the league’s most efficient rushing teams. Defenses were so worried about defending the Eagles’ passing offense that they conceded the run in many situations. There’s perhaps no easier way to open up running lanes for DeMarco Murray and Joseph Randle than to hit Dez Bryant deep downfield. Rushing and passing have a synergistic effect; rushing efficiently can set up the pass, but passing the ball with success can also open up the run, creating a cycle that’s very difficult to halt.

3. Run the ball with “11” personnel and from spread formations.

It seems obvious at first glance: If you want to pound the rock, bring in the big boys and line them up tight. While that might be the most effective direction to go in isolation, football is a game of competing minds. When the Cowboys go heavy, so does the defense. When they line up tight, so does the defense. Many times, such packages and formations simply increase the number of blocks the offense needs to make for a play to work.

The Cowboys have typically found the most success rushing from “11” personnel – three receivers, one running back, and one tight end. That’s probably because 1) they spread the field and 2) defenses bring in smaller nickel personnel. Last year, Dallas averaged 4.35 yards per carry (YPC) with “11” personnel, but only 3.31 YPC on all other rushes. When all is said and done, the rookie who could help the Cowboys’ rushing game the most might actually be Terrance Williams. If he can catch some passes and block well enough that the Cowboys feel comfortable using him even when they want to run the ball, the team should be able to improve their rushing efficiency.

Here’s the full post.