The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

May
15

By Jonathan Bales

Running the Numbers: Breaking Down DeVonte Holloman and Brandon Magee

Category: All Draft, All Film/Stats, DallasCowboys.com, Draft, Film/Stat Analysis, Recent Leave a Comment

At DallasCowboys.com, I broke down rookie linebackers DeVonte Holloman and Brandon Magee. Here’s the section on Magee:

Brandon Magee, Arizona State

Although Magee and Holloman played at different schools, their respective conferences, the Pac-12 and SEC, are comparable in quality. You could argue that we’d expect Magee’s stats to be better since the Pac-12 is a worse conference than the SEC, but don’t forget that Magee probably had worse teammates than Holloman. If we’re going to use the “SEC offensive linemen and running backs are better than those in the Pac-12” argument, then we also need to say that Holloman probably benefited from superior defensive linemen who could eat up blocks and allow him to make plays. In the end, it’s probably a wash, meaning we can at least make relative comparisons between the stats for the two prospects.

On a per-game basis, there appears to be a pretty substantial difference between Magee and Holloman. Take a look.

While Holloman’s production seemed to level out during his junior and senior seasons, Magee’s soared. The Arizona State linebacker ranked third in the entire Pac-12 in tackles last season. Meanwhile, Holloman ranked 58th in the SEC. Regardless of competition, Magee was a far more productive player than Holloman, especially when you consider that Magee also sacked the quarterback 6.5 times. Actually, Magee ranked in the top 15 in sacks for Pac-12 players at all positions.

It’s rather impressive that Magee managed to come back from a torn Achilles tendon in 2011 to dominate in 2012, but it also means that he’ll turn 23 years old early in his first professional season. I’ve mentioned that we really need to consider age when assessing prospects because it can help tell us if a player has maxed out on his potential or if his past play is only a fraction of what he can provide in the NFL.

And you can check out the full post at DallasCowboys.com.

May
11

By Jonathan Bales

Running the Numbers: Analytical View of Joseph Randle

Category: All Draft, All Film/Stats, DallasCowboys.com, Draft, Film/Stat Analysis, Recent Leave a Comment

At DallasCowboys.com, I broke down running back Joseph Randle’s pros and cons from a statistical perspective, including some analysis on player comps.

Each year prior to the draft, you can find dozens of scouting reports on each prospect. Many of them contain a “Player Comparison” section in which the writer compares the prospect to a current or former NFL player. I think these can be misleading, for two reasons. The first is that such a comparison can sometimes imply that a particular prospect has a rather narrow career outlook.

The truth is that most prospects have a very wide range of potential career paths, so we should really compare each to multiple similar players. The most comparable players can be weighted the strongest, but it would be wrong to insinuate that a particular player will without a doubt have a comparable career to someone else.

The second problem with most player comparisons is that they typically emphasize the wrong traits. As I’ve mentioned in the past, we should search to see which traits have been predictive of NFL success in the past, then weight the most important characteristics more heavily than those that haven’t been great predictors. If college receptions didn’t matter at all for running backs when predicting their futures, for example, there would be no reason to factor them into a search for comparable players. The most similar players are the ones who have near-matching numbers in the metrics that matter, i.e. those that can accurately predict a career.

However, how many times do you see player comparisons with two prospects who went to the same school? We saw that last week in Bryan Broaddus’s player comparison post; Broaddus asked some scouts around the league to compare the Cowboys’ draft picks with current NFL players. Two of the players, Travis Frederick and Terrance Williams, were provided with comps who played at their colleges. In these situations, it’s likely that the scouts were suffering from the availability heuristic – a mental shortcut through which people make judgments based on how easily they can think of examples. It might be easy to compare Williams to fellow Baylor wide receiver Josh Gordon, for example, but they’re pretty different players in regards to traits that appear to matter in the NFL. The fact that they both attended Baylor isn’t one of those important traits.

Let me be clear that NFL scouts are really good at what they do; for the most part, their player grades are pretty accurate, and many of them do it without the aid of analytics. But it’s really difficult, perhaps impossible, to generate meaningful comps just from memory. There are all kinds of biases involved in that sort of process. That’s really why we use data and advanced stats in the first place; no matter how great a scout’s memory or how well he knows a prospect, there’s no way he could recall a list of player comps faster or more accurately than a computer. In effect, algorithms can help us eliminate what we think we know to tell us what’s really there.

Head over to the team site to see why I’m not too high on Randle.

May
11

By Jonathan Bales

Undrafted Free Agents: Jakar Hamilton, Kendial Lawrence Scouting Reports

Category: All Draft, Draft, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

At NBC, I broke down two more of the Cowboys’ undrafted free agents: safety Jakar Hamilton and running back Kendial Lawrence.

On Hamilton:

Hamilton played the 2010 season at Georgia before transferring to South Carolina State. He wasn’t academically eligible to play until 2012, working primarily as a return specialist and contributing some on defense. With such little playing time, it’s pretty easy to see why Hamilton wasn’t drafted.

Nonetheless, Hamilton is a great athlete who has put together some good tape. He’s 5-11 and 186 pounds with mid-4.5 speed. He also recorded a 10-5 broad jump and 40.5-inch vertical, so there’s obvious explosiveness to his game. Despite his small stature, Hamilton appears willing to come up to make hits. He had 40 tackles in eight games in 2012 and breaks down well to make plays in the open field.

Check out the full report.

On Lawrence:

Lawrence is a small running back at 5-9, 194 pounds. The height doesn’t scare me—plenty of short backs have thrived in the NFL—but the weight is a concern. If Lawrence can beef up to over 200 pounds without losing speed, the Cowboys could have something here. To be fair, Lawrence’s body mass index (which is actually strongly correlated with NFL success) is 28.6—higher than Joseph Randle’s 27.7 BMI. So although short, there shouldn’t be too much concern that Lawrence can’t hold up.

When we’re looking at running backs from a measurables standpoint, the first things to consider are weight and long speed. If you’re deficient in one, you better make up for it in the other. And Lawrence does. He ran as low as a 4.33 40-yard dash at his pro day. That puts him in rare company with a group of running backs who have far out-produced even those backs in the 4.4 range.

Read the rest here.

May
8

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys Draft Scouting Reports: Joseph Randle, DeVonte Holloman, Brandon Magee

Category: All Draft, All Film/Stats, DallasCowboys.com, Draft, Film/Stat Analysis, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

Sorry for the lack of updates recently. I’ve been a little sick, but I’ve still been cranking out some scouting reports. At NBC, I published reports on Joseph Randle, DeVonte Holloman, and Brandon Magee.

On Randle:

What I Like

Randle was productive in the Big 12. He rushed for 38 touchdowns in the past two seasons, averaging 5.5 YPC over that time. He also caught 108 passes over the course of his three-year career, and that ability is surely one the Cowboys coveted.

Interestingly, despite his lackluster 40 times, Randle tested well in some other drills. He showed explosiveness in the broad jump (10-3) and short shuttle (4.25). Most backs who run in the 4.6s don’t have that sort of explosiveness in other metrics, so Randle has a chance to be one of the “slower” backs to overcome his lack of long speed.

What I Don’t Like

In addition to his 40 time, which is a concern no matter how you slice it, Randle also lacks an ideal build. The most successful NFL backs have traditionally been short and stocky. Randle is 6-0, 204 pounds; his long, lean build means he’s probably more susceptible to injuries than most other backs. He truly is Murray without the speed.

Here’s the whole scouting report on Randle.

On Holloman:

What I Like

I love that Holloman played safety in college. Even if he was average at the position, that equates to above-average movement for a linebacker. He’s also an aggressive player who fits well in a 4-3.

What I Don’t Like

At Holloman’s size, you’d like to see more explosiveness. If you’re a 6-1 linebacker, you better be able to keep up with running backs and tight ends, and I’m not sure Holloman can do that on a consistent basis.

Check out the full report.

On Magee:

What I Like

I like what the Cowboys are doing in trying to get smaller. By all accounts, it seems as though they’re going to field an extremely undersized defense—perhaps the lightest in the NFL. That could work out in their favor if they can force offenses to run the ball too much. In most cases, a defense should want an offense to run the ball on first-and-10, second-and-five, and in similar situations.

What I Don’t Like

Magee is so small that there almost seems to be no point in using him at linebacker over a safety. There are a few safeties in the league taller and heavier than Magee, so why not just play one of them as an outside linebacker in situations when Magee would be on the field? The reason is that Magee isn’t particularly explosive for his size. A lineup with Matt Johnson and J.J. Wilcox at safety and Barry Church at linebacker would probably be superior to one with an undersized linebacker who lacks safety-like coverage skills.

The full scouting report is at NBC.

I also took an analytical look at J.J. Wilcox and B.W. Webb at DallasCowboys.com:

J.J. Wilcox

There’s a really big difference between scouting small-school players versus those who played in a major conference. For certain positions, elite production in a big conference is the best predictor of NFL success. When a running back rushes for 6.0 yards per carry in the SEC or a wide receiver catches 100 passes in the Big Ten, for example, there’s good reason to believe that they’ll be effective in the NFL.

For small-school prospects like Wilcox, stats don’t matter as much. Playing against inferior competition, it really doesn’t matter how many interceptions or tackles Wilcox made in college. We’d of course like to see small-school prospects dominate games, but 1,500 rushing yards in the SEC is a bit different from the same amount in the Sun Belt.

That means that measurables are more vital when studying small-school players. A player like Wilcox might look outstanding on tape, but what do we really know about him when he’s playing against Old Dominion and Samford? We need to make sure players like that can make it in the NFL from a purely athletic standpoint before doing anything else, and there’s good reason to think Wilcox can do that.

Check out the rest.

May
3

By Jonathan Bales

B.W. Webb Scouting Report

Category: All Draft, Draft, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

At NBC, I published my take on fourth-round cornerback B.W. Webb.

Scouting Report

Webb is a small cornerback at 5-10, 184 pounds. Tall, muscular cornerbacks have become in vogue in today’s NFL with the rise of zone coverages to combat physical wide receivers. It’s not impossible for Webb to play outside by any means, but his more natural position, at least at first, seems like it would come in the slot.

Webb’s skill set is also suited for playing inside. He recorded a 3.84 short shuttle—the fastest for any player at any position at the 2013 Scouting Combine. He’s incredibly quick, and that trait will obviously be vital in the slot. Webb’s 4.51 40-yard dash time is average, but he showed explosiveness with a 40.5-inch vertical and 11-0 broad jump—both the third-highest marks at the Combine for any player.

On tape, you can see that Webb played almost solely zone coverage in college. He’ll be playing a whole lot more man coverage as a slot cornerback in Dallas, even in Monte Kiffin’s scheme, and there just isn’t a whole lot of film out there on Webb moving in man coverage. I have no doubt that he can do it, but he’ll need to work on his technique.

Webb is a play-maker on the outside—he had eight interceptions as a freshman—and a very willing tackler. Actually, he’s such a good tackler that I really believe he could potentially play safety for Dallas. Kiffin’s safeties don’t need to be big, and I think Webb is a good enough tackler to man the position. He’d play free safety for the Cowboys; I’m not sure if the coaches have discussed the option, but it makes sense.

Here’s the full post.

May
2

By Jonathan Bales

Running the Numbers: Terrance Williams Stats/Measurables

Category: All Draft, All Film/Stats, DallasCowboys.com, Draft, Film/Stat Analysis, Recent Leave a Comment

At DallasCowboys.com, I took an analytical look at third-round pick Terrance Williams.

The first thing that jumps out about Williams is his staggering 2012 production for Baylor: 97 receptions, 1,832 yards, and 12 touchdowns. College production is perhaps the most overlooked aspect of grading prospects; the best predictor of future performance is past success. Williams obviously had that in his senior season. We shouldn’t dismiss the fact that he dominated Big 12 competition.

Prior to 2012, though, Williams never surpassed 60 receptions or 1,000 yards in a single season. Why? Part of it is probably due to Baylor’s offense, but another potential explanation is that Williams, who was redshirted all the way back in 2008, played the 2012 season at age 23. There’s quite a difference between a 23-year-old and a 20-year-old in terms of maturity and experience.

Williams will begin his rookie season at age 24; compare that to Browns second-year receiver Josh Gordon, who caught 50 passes for 805 yards and five touchdowns last year in his rookie campaign at age 21. By the time Gordon is 24 years old, he’ll be in his fourth season in the NFL. That’s invaluable to Cleveland. Whereas Williams’ age 24 season will basically be a learning experience, Gordon could very well already be playing at near peak efficiency. Williams’ age isn’t debilitating to his career outlook by any means, but it should still be a factor in our assessment.

Think of it this way: If Williams had come out of school after the 2011 season, one in which he caught 59 passes for 957 yards, where would he have been drafted? Probably not in the third round. The question is whether or not Williams maxed out on his potential in college because he was more experienced than the competition, playing at an age a few years older than many NFL rookies. It’s tough to tell, but there are other things to like about Williams.

Head over to the team site for the full post.

May
2

By Jonathan Bales

What I Like, Dislike About Terrance Williams and J.J. Wilcox

Category: All Draft, DC Times Blog, Draft, Miscellaneous, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

At NBC, I published scouting reports and what I like/dislike about Terrance Williams and J.J. Wilcox. On Williams:

What I Like

I don’t think you can emphasize Williams’ weight/speed combination enough; it’s vital. I also love how productive Williams was at Baylor in 2012, catching 97 passes for 1,832 yards and 12 touchdowns. Williams averaged 18.9 yards-per-catch, and that kind of production in the Big 12 is impressive. The best predictor of future performance is past success. So often we talk about a prospect’s film and his measurables, but we forget to look at how he’s produced against a high level of competition in the past. It’s also worth noting that Williams converted 13.4 percent of his career catches into touchdowns.

The whole Williams scouting report is at NBC.

On Wilcox:

What I Like

Wilcox is an athlete. Although he’s obviously raw and inexperienced at safety, I think that’s a good thing, for a few reasons. First, it means he hasn’t had as much time to pick up bad habits. The Cowboys’ coaches have a piece of clay that they can sculpt, and Wilcox is enough of an athlete to pick up the teaching right away. Second, I think it’s valuable for defensive players to understand offensive concepts. Wilcox has said he’s benefited from knowing how receivers will run their routes, how they’ll come out of their breaks, and so on; although he played at Georgia Southern, he’s a step ahead of the game in terms of the mental aspects of playing in the NFL.

What I Don’t Like

It’s obviously not ideal for a prospect to play against inferior competition because it becomes really difficult to grade him. While I think Wilcox’s background allowed the Cowboys to acquire value on him in the third round, he has some hurdles he’ll need to overcome to play under the bright lights of the NFL. With any small-school prospect, it’s so important to make sure they’re confident and mentally tough enough to play with the best of the best.

Check out the rest at NBC.

Apr
30

By Jonathan Bales

A Bunch of Cowboys Draft Analysis: More on Frederick, Escobar & Co.

Category: All Draft, All Film/Stats, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, DC Times Blog, Draft, Film/Stat Analysis, Miscellaneous, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

I’ve published a bunch of Cowboys draft content over the past two days. Here are a few links and previews.

A statistical view of Travis Frederick and Gavin Escobar at DallasCowboys.com

From a numbers standpoint, what we know about Frederick is that he’s 6-4, 312 pounds with 33-inch arms, which is right around average and certainly adequate for a center. Arm length is a good predictor of offensive tackle success. I haven’t seen any analytics on arm length for interior linemen, but I’d assume the correlation extends inside. Frederick ran a 5.58 40-yard dash, jumped 28.5 inches, and recorded 21 reps on the bench press. He’s not an explosive athlete, but you don’t need to be to play well at center in the NFL. You simply need to possess a baseline level of athleticism. Frederick isn’t so athletic that you automatically know that’s the case, such as with a guy like Eagles first-rounder Lane Johnson, but his quality game tape suggests he can play with the big boys.

TE Gavin Escobar

Although it’s “blasphemous” in some circles to use a player’s college stats to help grade him, I think it’s one of the most overlooked aspects of scouting. Simply put, if a guy played well against a high level of competition in college, he has a good chance to do it in the pros.

Escobar didn’t play in a major conference, but it’s still important to look at numbers for small-school players. We’d expect exceptional small-school athletes to dominate inferior competition; if they don’t, that might be a sign that something is amiss.

During his three-year career, Escobar’s personal bests in catches, yards and touchdowns all came in 2011, when he turned in a 51/780/7 season. That’s hardly dominant, but don’t forget that tight ends aren’t typically utilized in the same way in college as in the NFL, and there were some concerns that Escobar was actually misused as an in-line tight end at San Diego State.

More on Escobar at NBC

More on Frederick at NBC

What I Like

Obviously, Frederick has some really good tape out there. He plays with awesome technique, and you can tell just how cerebral he is on the field. After hearing him in his first press conference in Dallas, you can tell he’s a really intelligent kid. That’s important, especially for a player who will be making the line calls.

From all accounts, Frederick is also a natural leader. He seems confident in himself—which will be vital for someone the fans already dislike because of his draft spot—and he seems to be very focused on improving his game.

What I Don’t Like

Again, I question if Frederick has enough athleticism to really thrive in the NFL. You don’t need to be a freak athlete to play center, but I watched more tape of Frederick struggling with speed at the college level. I think he has the determination and work ethic to improve, but it won’t matter if he’s not athletic enough to play with NFL talent.

I also don’t like that Frederick is a low-ceiling player. I really doubt that he can ever play at an All-Pro level, even if he maxes out on his potential. It’s smart to invest in safe players in the first round, but the Cowboys probably could have drafted a safe player with more upside.

My initial reaction to the Cowboys’ first four picks

A look back at the Cowboys’ 2010 big board at Dallas News

  • FIRST ROUND

1. Sam Bradford
2. Gerald McCoy
3. Ndamukong Suh
4. Russell Okung
5. Trent Williams
6. Eric Berry
7. Rolando McClain
8. Joe Haden
9. CJ Spiller
10. Mike Iupati
11.  Blocked by Jerry’s arm, but likely Earl Thomas or Dez Bryant
12.  Blocked by Jerry’s arm, but likely Earl Thomas or Dez Bryant
13. Bryan Bulaga
14. Sean Lee
15. Jared Odrick
16. Jason Pierre-Paul
17. Derrick Morgan
18. Kyle Wilson
19. Maurkice Pouncey
20. Navarro Bowman
21. Jahvid Best
22. Tyson Alualu
23. Jermaine Gresham

Apr
28

By Jonathan Bales

2013 Cowboys Draft Recap/Analysis

Category: "Potential Draft Picks" Series, All Draft, Dallas Morning News, DC Times Blog, Draft, Miscellaneous, New York Times, News & Notes, Recent Leave a Comment

I wrote a buttload of content throughout the draft. Here are some links. Check ‘em out to read the entire articles.

One thing that worries me about Terrance Williams

I really liked the Cowboys’ third-round selection of Baylor wide receiver Terrance Williams. Although wide receiver wasn’t considered a major need, I’ve suggested for a few months that the Cowboys could be in major trouble if Miles Austin or Dez Bryant got injured; until the selection of Williams—6-2, 208 pounds—the Cowboys really didn’t have another option to play on the outside.

In addition to his size, Williams adds 4.52 speed. That size/speed combination helped Williams explode for 97 receptions, 1,832 yards, and 12 touchdowns last year at Baylor. The numbers on Williams are very impressive, and the ‘Boys surely found value on the star receiver.

But there’s one issue to monitor: Williams’ age. When the 2013 season begins, Williams will already be 24. He’ll be older than some receivers who were drafted two years ago. And historically, older players have performed better in college—and subsequently worse in the pros—than younger ones. How many current NFL wideouts could potentially dominate the college ranks if they stayed until age 23?

Again, I really like Williams’ skill set. Examining his closest comps, we see some impressive names. Take a look:

Terrance Williams: 6-2, 208 pounds, 4.52 40-yard dash, 42 percent of Baylor’s receiving yards, 0.92 TD/game

Hakeem Nicks: 6-1, 212 pounds, 4.51 40-yard dash, 49 percent of UNC’s receiving yards, 0.92 TD/game

Jordy Nelson: 6-3, 217 pounds, 4.51 40-yard dash, 48 percent of Kansas State’s receiving yards, 0.92 TD/game

The primary difference is that Nicks and Nelson were 21 and 22 years old, respectively, when drafted. That’s important.

Tight end Gavin Escobar’s fit in Dallas

The biggest positive for Escobar, in my estimation, is that he’s a big-time threat in the red zone. He converted 13.9 percent of his college receptions into touchdowns—a fairly high rate—and that’s a trait the Cowboys covet. Witten has traditionally been subpar inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, and it isn’t as if the running backs are pounding it in for touchdowns.

Escobar is a really talented athlete—not as explosive as you might like with only 4.78 speed—but a player with tremendous ball skills. He can certainly add something as a receiver, but as I mentioned in my immediate reaction of the pick, the Cowboys don’t necessarily need that. They have Miles Austin and Dez Bryant on the outside, and second-year man James Hanna showed some things last year.

The Cowboys obviously think they’ll be able to fix Escobar’s blocking. As it stands now, I see Escobar putting himself in a poor position and frequently lunging at defenders.

Safety J.J. Wilcox’s fit in Dallas

Upside

One of the reasons Wilcox is so intriguing is his upside. People often view a “raw” prospect negatively, but Wilcox’s lack of experience just means he has tons of room to improve on an already impressive 2012 season.

Jjwilcox2_crop_exact

Plus, the third round is a good time to begin seeking upside over safety. Mid-round picks don’t work out as much as people think they do, so it’s often better to swing for the fences than to land a “safe” player who won’t contribute much anyway. While I don’t view Wilcox as a major risk, there was no player on the board with more upside.

Fit in Dallas

It will be interesting to see where Monte Kiffin plays Wilcox—as a free or strong safety. I think he can play either position, continuing the Cowboys’ trend of seeking versatility.

Wilcox will get a fair shot to win a starting job in training camp, and I tentatively expect him to beat out Johnson and Will Allen for that job. If that happens, I think you’ll see Wilcox as a free safety, patrolling the deep half with Barry Church and deep middle when Church plays in the box.

The Cowboys figure to play a whole lot more Cover 3 this year than people anticipate, so whoever plays free safety for them will be in the middle of the field quite often.

Cornerback B.W. Webb’s fit in Dallas

Scouting Report on B.W. Webb

Webb is a 5-10, 184-pound cornerback, so it’s unlikely that he’ll play on the outside. That means he’ll most likely strictly be a nickel back in the NFL, playing in the slot. He certainly has the skill set to thrive in there; he’s one of the quickest players in this draft.

When you watch tape of Webb, that suddenness stands out, and it’s confirmed in hismeasurables. He recorded a 4.46 40-yard dash, but more impressive were his 40.5-inch vertical, 11-0 broad jump and insane 3.84 short shuttle.

Actually, that short shuttle time was the fastest for any single player at the 2013 Scouting Combine. The vertical and broad jump both ranked him third.

Webb was a play-maker at William & Mary, picking off eight passes and returning two for touchdowns as a redshirt freshman. Webb also displayed big-time return ability, which is where he’ll be able to immediately make an impact.

Webb excels in man coverage. He won’t be able to consistently press—especially with his 30-inch arms—but he actually plays well from a press position where he can mirror receivers. He’s got some of the quickest feet in this draft.

Despite his small stature, Webb isn’t afraid to help out against the run. That’s a primary weakness for current nickel back Orlando Scandrick.

Running back Joseph Randle’s fit in Dallas

Is He Explosive?

Randle isn’t explosive from a straight-line speed standpoint, but oddly, he measured pretty well in the vertical jump (35 inches) and broad jump (10-3)—two measurables that are strongly correlated with the 40. He also recorded a 4.25 short shuttle, which has to make you at least wonder if his 40 time was an aberration.

Late-Round Backs

Even though I would have drafted a different running back at this point, I love the idea of waiting to secure a runner. Since 2000, first- and second-round backs have totaled 4.23 YPC. Compare that to 4.25 YPC for backs drafted in the third, fourth or fifth round. There’s actually no correlation between draft spot and NFL efficiency for running backs, meaning there’s also little reason to draft one early.

2013 Projection

Like I said, Randle will step in as Murray’s backup. The way things have gone with Murray, there’s a good chance that Randle could take over as the starter at some point in 2013 if Murray gets hurt. Assuming Murray stays healthy, though, I’d expect Randle to eat up about 30 percent of the carries and take over the majority of third-down work. That works out to 107 carries, and, say, 30 receptions.

A look back at my original Randle scouting report

Randle is a natural pass-catcher. When combined with his willingness to protect the quarterback, you have the makings of a potentially successful third-down back.

Despite all of his success in college, you have to wonder if Randle can overcome his lack of long speed. He ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at the Combine and then followed that up with times between 4.54 and 4.63 at his Pro Day. Simply put, he’s not a burner.

We can discuss the importance of lateral quickness all day, but you can’t overlook the fact that running backs who have clocked in around Randle’s time have recorded about one-sixth the NFL production of those who ran as fast as Murray (4.41). That doesn’t mean Randle can’t possible succeed in the NFL, but the odds are against him. If the job of NFL teams is to maximize their chances of hitting on any given pick, it’s hard to justify using a mid-round selection on a lean running back with sub-par speed.

Linebacker DeVonte Holloman’s fit in Dallas

Safety Valve

It’s worth noting that Holloman actually played the first three years of his South Carolina career as a safety. He was a highly recruited prep player who started for the Gamecocks as a freshman. That sort of hybrid player is exactly what you’d expect new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin to target at the outside linebacker position.

College Production

Holloman never totaled more than 69 tackles in any season, and that came in 2010 as a sophomore. When Holloman moved to outside linebacker as a senior, he recorded 59 tackles, but he also added eight tackles-for-loss—a career-high—and two sacks. Holloman ended his South Carolina career with seven interceptions.

Measurables

At 6’2″, 243 pounds, Holloman is a prototypical 4-3 outside linebacker. He’s limited in what he can do; he’ll probably be best suited playing as a weak-side backer, although I have a feeling the Cowboys will give him a shot at the Sam spot to start. For the most part, Holloman turned in subpar measurables: a 4.71 40-yard dash, 33-inch vertical and 9’5″ broad jump. However, he also interestingly recorded a 4.26 short shuttle; that’s a really fast time for someone his size and could indicate some short-area quickness.

Grades for some of the notable second-round picks

Apr
26

By Jonathan Bales

DMN Cowboys Draft Chat

Category: All Draft, Dallas Morning News, DC Times Blog, Draft, Miscellaneous, News & Notes, Rankings, Recent 4 Comments

Just participated in a chat at Dallas News. Here’s a portion:

  • Hey what’s up guys? I’m here and all set to take your questions.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:00 PM
  • Did the cowboys not take Elam due the fact the tampa 2 doesn’t need great safeties to work
    by eric from indy 12:00 PM
  • A few points: first, Monte Kiffin will run some Cover 2, but there’s going to be a whole lot of different looks, including more Cover 3 with Barry Church in the box. This isn’t going to mirror everything he did in Tampa a decade ago. Having said that, there’s no doubt that he wants and needs a play-making safety in the back end. I don’t know if he has that in Matt Johnson, but I still think the Cowboys want a safety. They didn’t take Elam (or another safety) because, as I’ve mentioned before, the position isn’t scarce in this draft. If they like Elam, Cyprien, Thomas, and Wilcox all around the same, it wouldn’t make much sense to take one of them early when you could grab one in the second or third. I still think that they’ll address the position in those rounds.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:03 PM
  • Cowboys’ offensive lineman had many injuries last year switching to Bill Callihan’s technique. what are the chances that the same happens to Frederick? Also, should he lose weight?
    by DeMario Davis 12:03 PM
  • I don’t think the injuries had anything to do with Callahan’s zone blocking scheme; they just got unlucky. The chances of Frederick getting injured under Callahan are the same as they’d be under any other coach. I don’t think he necessarily needs to lose weight, even if the Cowboys will be zone blocking, because that’s not his game. He’s not Jonathan Cooper, so there’s no sense in trying to become that. Plus, the Cowboys really need guys who can win at the point in short-yardage situations when they run up the middle. I don’t know if Frederick can do that, but losing weight wouldn’t help his cause.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:05 PM
  • If San Francisco wanted the Cowboys 18th pick so bad, why didnt the Cowboys hold out until San Fran gave up their 2nd round pick?
    by Justin H 12:06 PM
  • I just posted an article on the trade, but I’m really not sure. I’m sure the Cowboys tried to get the second; it’s unlikely Jerry would just immediately accept a third, but I still think they could have gotten better compensation. It’s not that the deal is inherently poor for the Cowboys, because it’s not. What they got back is actually fair for the move down, but the point is that if they could have gotten more, they should have. It doesn’t really matter what the picks are “worth” outside of what the Niners perceived them to be worth, and if the Cowboys could have gotten more, it was a sub-optimal trade. I have a difficult time believing they couldn’t have at least gotten another late-round pick out of a team that was obviously desperate to trade up.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:09 PM
  • Why is Ratliff still on this team? Isn’t Floyd better (and much cheaper) than Ratliff is right now?
    by Big Kev 12:09 PM
  • I don’t know if Floyd is a better player than Ratliff right now. He will be in a few years, obviously, but the Cowboys obviously felt as though they have bigger needs. And although Floyd was hyped up like crazy heading into the draft, I guarantee you he wasn’t as high on most teams’ boards as he was in the media. Before the draft, I had Floyd as a borderline first-round value, and I didn’t think he was the best player available when the Cowboys were on the clock. I actually think Dallas made the right move in trading down, but they needed to get more in return and, perhaps, a different player. In hindsight, I’d probably take Floyd at 18 over Frederick at 31 and a third-rounder, but that doesn’t mean the trade wasn’t smart at the time.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:12 PM
  • So, which DT with long arms and a quick twitch are the Cowboys going to be able to find in today’s rounds?
    by OKC Cowboy Fan 12:12 PM
  • For me, that player has to be Kawann Short. Actually, when the Cowboys were on the clock at 31, I thought that would be their guy. He’s the top defensive tackle remaining on my board by a long shot. He’s actually so scarce at this point that I’d strongly consider moving up for him. The Cowboys have extra ammo now, and I see the drop from Short to the next tier of defensive tackles as being a big one.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:14 PM
  • wouldn’t Sly Williams have been a better pick at 18 rather than trading down?
    by Rod Bower 12:14 PM
  • Yes, probably, but the Cowboys had to take on the uncertainty of not knowing who would be available when they made the deal. No matter what they tell you, I don’t think they’re happy to have Frederick at 31 and if they could replay the draft and they knew what would happen, I think they’d stay at 18. Not sure if Williams would have been their guy there, but Frederick was low enough on my board that I would take Williams over Frederick and a third. Again, that doesn’t mean the trade was a poor one when the Cowboys made it because they had to take on that uncertainty. It just didn’t work out for them.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:17 PM
  • How important are things like short arms, slow 40, (and slow in shuttle I think)? I watched some tape and to my untrained eye, he looked good.
    by How important are things… 12:17 PM
  • If you mean for Frederick, I think the most important trait is arm length. You’d like to see more athleticism out of him, but he just needs to surpass a certain baseline to be able to play center in the NFL. The Cowboys obviously believe he’s athletic enough. I have my doubts, but it’s not due entirely to his measurables. You’re right that on tape he looks good, but my problem is that he might have maxed out his potential. He plays intelligently and with great angles, but how much better is he going to get? I think it’s smart for teams to emphasize safety in the first round, but you can probably find a guy just as safe as Frederick with a much higher ceiling.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:20 PM
  • Do you think the Cowboys panic’d a little as some of the OL’s and safeties went off the board right before pick 31?
    by Michael 12:21 PM
  • I do. I think what they did in trading down in the first round and then selecting an interior lineman is smart on paper, but it wasn’t the right move in this particular draft. Historically, the area to where the Cowboys traded provides an amazing return on investment relative to the cost of the pick, but they didn’t get great compensation in the trade. They also probably knew that first-round interior linemen have generally been among the most successful of any first-round position, but we’ve also never seen a run on linemen like we saw this year. So instead of getting a guy like Warmack at 18, the Cowboys were forced into a much worse option: good in theory, but probably not so valuable in reality because of the nature of this draft.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:24 PM
  • If Tyrann Mathieu is available at the beginning of the 3rd round, do you see Jerry trading both his 3rd picks to get him?
    by Justin Hlubek 12:24 PM
  • No. Mathieu probably isn’t on the Cowboys’ board, and that trade would never happen for any player. Even if Mathieu were squeaky clean off of the field, he’s not an elite player. He might not even get a third-round grade from the Cowboys in any situation because he’s 5-9 with average speed. Where do short nickel backs with return ability typically get selected? Maybe the third or fourth round. So factor in Mathieu’s off-field issues, and I think he’s borderline undraftable.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:27 PM
  • There was a historic run on OL in the 1st round. Seems like Dallas got caught up in it and drafted a lesser player instead of BPA. Your thoughts?
    by MJD 12:27 PM
  • They say they drafted the highest-rated player on their board. I don’t think teams need to draft the highest-rated player in all situations, but obviously it’s ideal to get the best player available at the position of top need. Apparently the Cowboys did that (assuming Frederick can play guard), but it’s just not the player we thought it might be.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:28 PM
  • Don’t they still need at least 2 more starters on the OL: RT and another interior O-Lineman?
    by h 12:28 PM
  • Depending where they play Frederick, we might be looking at Smith/Livings/Costa/Frederick/Parnell right now. Parnell showed some good things last year, but I don’t think Dallas is counting on him to start and excel. I’d say that four of the Cowboys’ five starting offensive linemen are currently on the roster.
    by Jonathan Bales 12:30 PM

Here’s the full chat.

« Older Posts