Fantasy Football: Building the Ideal Players

At RotoWire, I’ve been working on building the ideal players. I started with quarterback.

Mobility Isn’t Essential, But It’s Ideal

All quarterbacks need to be able to throw with accuracy – that’s not up for debate – but the rookies who have found recent NFL success have all been able to make plays with their legs. As I mentioned in my article on rookie quarterbacks, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson,Cam Newton and even Andrew Luck have already turned in some of the top quarterback rushing performances of all-time. When selecting a quarterback, try to target one who can give you points as a runner; it increases his value because it’s a trait that’s often overlooked in drafts, and it decreases week-to-week volatility.

Efficiency > Bulk Stats as a Predictor

Most fantasy owners pay for bulk stats – yards and touchdowns – and for obvious reasons. You clearly want a quarterback who will throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns, but it’s difficult to acquire value by emphasizing those stats because everyone else is doing the same. To profit, you need to search for predictors of future success, especially for quarterbacks who have yet to break out. Yards-per-attempt (YPA) is the best of the bunch.

In my article on using rookie stats to project future quarterback success, I found that YPA actually predicts future production far better than touchdowns or yards.

That’s pretty surprising, and it provides an opportunity for you to exploit the tendency of others to pay for yards and touchdowns. When others are jumping on Andrew Luck (6.98 YPA), you can get Ryan Tannehill (6.81 YPA) – now equipped with new weapons on the outside – at a bargain.

Check out the rest.

And I’ve also worked on building the ideal running back.

Speed Kills

While opinions on the importance of the 40-yard dash differ from “completely worthless” to “he ran a what!?,” the truth is the test is really important for running backs. In terms ofapproximate value – a good measure of overall production – the fastest running backs have been the most success, and it hasn’t even been close.

Running backs who have run sub-4.40 have been around six times as successful as those above 4.50, which is remarkable. The difference is far greater even than that for wide receivers. Frank Gore and Alfred Morris-type players are outliers at a position that has thrived on game-breaking speed over the last decade.

Bigger Is Better

Everything else equal, you always want bigger, faster players. For some positions, however, height is more important than weight. For running backs, height doesn’t seem to be too crucial, whereas weight – or more specifically, height-to-weight ratio – predicts NFL success. Historically, “stocky” running backs – those with a high body mass index – have been able to withstand the wear and tear of the position better than tall, lanky ones.

By comparing a running back’s speed to his size, we can get a really good idea of his future production. There are all sorts of advanced formulas out there to combine weight with metrics like the 40-yard dash and short shuttle, and those formulas seem to work better as a predictive tool than either speed or weight alone.

Heavy Workloads

While wide receivers can post outstanding fantasy numbers on efficiency alone, running backs absolutely require heavy workloads. Look at the 16 backs who rushed for 1,000 yards in 2012; with the exception of C.J. Spiller, every one of them had at least 220 carries, and most a lot more. The standard deviation of yards-per-carry is low; a top running back might average 5.5 YPC, which is barely 20 percent higher than the league average. That means the first stat you should consider when projecting running backs is total touches.

See the other ideal running back traits.

Fantasy Football: Ceilings, Floors for Elite Tight Ends

At rotoViz, I used the tight end similarity app to generate ceiling and floor projections for the draft’s top four tight ends.

I’ve already used the apps to generate ceiling and floor projections for the draft’s elite quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. As a refresher, the apps provide 20 “comparables” for each player, giving you an idea of the range of potential outcomes a player might experience. To calculate ceilings and floors, I’ve tracked the numbers for each player’s top four and bottom four comps, respectively, in each statistical category. In doing this, we can get a really strong sense of the risk and reward surrounding each player.

At the tight end position, two players—Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham—stand out above the rest with ADPs of 1.11 and 2.03, respectively. A tier below, Hernandez checks in at third at 3.08, and Jason Witten is getting drafted fourth at 4.02.

Below, I graphed the potential upside for those top four tight ends based on their top comps. I used PPR scoring.

Not surprisingly, Gronkowski and Graham lead the pack. Gronkowski’s upside in particular is outstanding, as his peak season is 1.7 points per game higher than Graham’s. More important, the numbers seem to confirm my suspicion that Hernandez isn’t necessarily a high-upside player. His top comps have posted 1.1 points per game lower than Witten—a soon-to-be 31-year old.

Worse, Hernandez doesn’t possess a very high floor, either, i.e. he’s not really a safe pick.

Again, Hernandez checks in below Witten. The production of his bottom four comps is just 77 percent of that for Graham’s comps.

The whole article is at rotoViz.

Fantasy Football: Jumping on the Brandon Marshall Bandwagon

Is there a bandwagon for Brandon Marshall yet? If not, I’m starting it. At rotoViz, I took a look at the ceilings and floors for the top six wide receivers in fantasy drafts.

Below, I charted the ceilings for the top half-dozen wide receivers in terms of current ADP—the only six who are getting selected in the first two rounds. These are the ceiling projections for each player based on their top four comparables in each statistical category for PPR leagues—receptions, yards, and touchdowns. I threw out any comps who didn’t participate in at least six games.

It’s not too surprising to see Calvin Johnson with the highest projected ceiling. In reality, his ceiling is probably even higher than listed because it’s difficult to find comps for a player coming off of a 122/1,964/5 season.

While A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, and Dez Bryant all possess similar upside, it’s interesting to see Brandon Marshall towering above them with a ceiling of 21.5 points per game. Marshall’s 118 receptions in 2012 don’t hurt, but he’d still be the clear No. 2 if his peak receptions per game—currently at 6.69—were closer to the average of the group (which is barely less at 6.57).

Marshall’s ceiling as a highly-targeted No. 1 option with Jay Cutler at quarterback is probably higher than that for Thomas and Jones, at least, simply because they have to share looks with other talented receivers. Jones in particular probably doesn’t have the sort of upside everyone who is drafting him in the middle of the second round is expecting. Unless the Falcons completely shift their game plan to emphasize Jones over Roddy White and defenses tailor their schemes to allow Jones to see more single-coverage, he might not have top three potential.

Since all of these receivers are currently getting selected in the first two rounds, it might be more valuable to examine their floors. The easiest way to acquire value in the first few rounds is to minimize risk; everyone has awesome upside, so it’s just as easy to hit a home run by simply trying to make contact as it is by swinging for the fences.

Quite surprisingly, Marshall has a higher floor than each of the other top-rated receivers. Again, Johnson’s numbers are deflated due to a lack of truly similar comps. You could say he’ll see increased defensive attention coming off of one of the premiere seasons in NFL history, but how much more coverage could he really see?

Check out the whole article at rotoViz.

Fantasy Football: Ages of Decline for WRs, TEs

At RotoWire, I broke down the typical ages of decline for wide receivers and tight ends. On receivers:

After a 2011 season in which he participated in only seven games and tied his career-low for touchdowns, Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson exploded for 112 receptions and 1,598 yards in 2012. The breakout wasn’t really too surprising for one of the game’s elite receivers; Johnson had three prior 100-catch seasons and two years with at least 1,500 yards. We know that Johnson won’t be able to continue his dominance forever, but when will his decline strike?

Over the past few weeks, I’ve examined the age of decline for running backs andquarterbacks. I found that running backs enter the NFL at near peak efficiency, and it’s usually a gradual decline from there. Meanwhile, quarterbacks can play at a high level well into their 30s. Looking at the numbers, the career outlook for wide receivers falls somewhere between that for running backs and quarterbacks.

Like quarterbacks, wide receivers take some time to develop. As you might recall from earlier articles, there have been only six rookie wide receivers since 2000 to finish in the top 24 at their position. That’s pretty remarkable, especially when you consider that three of them - A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Torrey Smith – came in a single year.

See the whole article here.

On tight ends:

Over the past few weeks, I’ve been attempting to break down fantasy output for each position based on age. I think there are a lot of practical uses for age breakdowns, particularly in dynasty or keeper leagues. It’s much easier to understand a player’s three-year outlook if you know how similar players at the same age have performed in the past.

Today, it’s the tight ends’ turn. Below, I charted tight end production over the past decade-plus, sorted by age.
If that graph were a mountain, it would be difficult to climb on both ends. That’s because tight ends have historically had a smaller range of peak years than quarterbacks, receivers and even running backs. Tight ends take a long time to develop – the probability of a rookie tight end posting respectable fantasy numbers is almost zero – and they see a steep decline in their early-30s.

Historically, the typical tight end has produced only four seasons with at least 90 percent of his peak production. In that way, they’re very comparable to wide receivers, who also record only a few elite years. The difference is that wide receivers sustain a decent level of play for a much longer time than tight ends.

Check out the rest at RotoWire.

Fantasy Football: A Case for Doug Martin as the No. 1 Player in Fantasy Football

At rotoViz, I broke down why Doug Martin deserves consideration to be the top player off of the board inf fantasy drafts.

Elite Running Back Comps

Below, I charted the ceilings for the top six backs in terms of current ADP.

Note that the chart ranged from 18 to 24 PPG, so the expected production for the top six backs is similar. Again, Peterson’s ceiling is likely higher than what’s listed here, but it’s still interesting to see how the backs’ upside coincides with age. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Lynch, coming off of a season with very similar numbers to Martin, possesses the lowest ceiling of the bunch heading into his age 27 season. In terms of upside alone, you have to wonder why Lynch is getting drafted ahead of Martin or Richardson.

That question intensifies when we examine the floors for the backs.

Here, the value of the young backs shines. Despite rushing for only 950 yards at 3.56 YPC in his rookie season, Richardson joins Martin as having the “safest” historical comps. That’s not surprising when you consider that running backs typically peak in efficiency right when they come into the league, and it’s a gradual decline from there. When you have young backs at the peak of their games and you put them in high-volume situations without much competition—as is the case with both Martin and Richardson—you have the makings of low-risk/high-reward players.

Check out the rest of my post and the RB Similarity Scores App at rotoViz.

Fantasy Football: Quarterback Production By Age

My latest “According to the Data” article takes a look at quarterback production based on age.

Last week, I broke down historic running back production by age, showing that the total production for most running backs peaks around age 26. Further, the average running back produces his top efficiency at age 22, meaning most running backs are near their best from the time they enter the league and slowly decline from that point on. They produce superior fantasy numbers as they acquire heavier workloads, but most runners are an “anti-wine” – getting worse with age.

Quarterback play is much different. Below, I charted the production for starting quarterbacks over the past two decades.

Unlike running backs, quarterbacks typically increase their overall production and efficiency at a gradual pace. Quarterback efficiency peaks at age 27 and overall fantasy production peaks two years later. Remarkably, quarterbacks have maintained their high levels of efficiency until their mid-30s. Meanwhile, overall production has dipped at two points around age 31 and again at age 37.

Check out the entire article at RotoWire.

Fantasy Football: Peyton Manning and Aging Running Backs

Throughout the year, I’ll be posting a lot of my fantasy football content at a new site called rotoViz. Many of you who follow me for fantasy football purposes might know the creator of the site as the “Fantasy Douche.” His name is Frank DuPont and he’s probably the top fantasy football writer I know. The focus of rotoViz is data visualization in fantasy football, and so you’ll see a number of awesome interactive apps being rolled out as the season approaches.

In my first post at the site, I used the QB Similarity Scores app to create ceiling and floor projections for the top four quarterbacks in fantasy drafts. In doing so, I found that Peyton Manning might be a sneaky safe pick.

Using the custom QB Similarity Scores App, I calculated the upside and downside for the draft’s top four quarterbacks—Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Manning—by charting the fantasy points scored by their top four and bottom four comparables, respectively, in each statistical category (minimum of six games played).

In terms of upside, the quarterbacks are all grouped together pretty tightly. Rodgers has the advantage because of his rushing ability and age, while Brees is right behind him since he could very well become the first quarterback to throw 6,000 passes in one season. For the most part, though, there’s not a massive difference here. Now let’s take a look at the players’ floors. . .

You can see that Manning’s bottom four comparables in each category have generated a floor that’s nearly two fantasy points per game higher than the comparables for Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. You could argue that Manning has the best offensive weapons of the bunch, and he posted 4,659 yards and 37 touchdowns in his first year in Denver. There’s even more upside to be had as Manning’s comfort level with his teammates and new town grows.

Head over to rotoViz for the rest of that article and a whole lot more.

In my latest “According to the Data” article, I took a look at historic running back production based on age.

I recently researched the production for all running backs with at least 100 touches in a season since 2000. Below, I charted those backs based on their total production and efficiency at each age.

Contrary to popular belief, running backs don’t see a dramatic drop in their total production around age 30. Instead, that decline typically occurs after their age 26 season. Yes, the typical running back’s overall production peaks before his 27th birthday. From there, the drop is a steep one, with the average 29-year old back producing only 70 percent of the fantasy points he generated at his peak.

The decline in efficiency is even more amazing. The average NFL running back records the highest points-per-touch at age 22 – usually his rookie season or second year in the league. From there, the drop is pretty steady until age 30, when there’s a slight increase. That small jump is probably due to more talented backs staying in the league while lesser players have been forced out. The rise is short-lived, with the average running back seeing a dramatic decrease in efficiency by age 33.

Looking at the chart, it’s pretty clear that running backs don’t peak at age 30. Actually, if you’re considering drafting a 30-year old back, you can probably expect his production to remain steady for at least a couple of years. That production is nowhere near his past peak, but as long as that’s factored into your decision on where to draft him, you should be fine.

The full post is at RotoWire.

Fantasy Football: Using Early ADP in August

At RotoWire, I took a look at how owners can use current ADP to gain an advantage come draft day.

Using ADP to Judge Rankings

I’m a big believer in creating your own projections and rankings. You can and should collect as much data as possible from as many legitimate sources as you can, but at the end of the day, your rankings should be drafted independently of public opinion.

However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t consider the views of others. After you make your initial rankings, it can be helpful to view ADP to learn where you stand in relation to others. In no way should your original rankings simply mirror public opinion, but when you have a player ranked wildly differently than the masses, he’s worth a second look.

The reason for this is a phenomenon known as “wisdom of the crowds” whereby the aggregate of expert opinions is often superior to the majority of those individual opinions taken in isolation. If you bet on football games using the consensus picks from professional sports bettors, for example, the results are typically superior to those from most of the bettors themselves.

Early-Season ADP

Of course, ADP in late-August is hardly a collection of expert opinions. By that time, you’ve had just about every type of owner participate in drafts, and there’s a whole lot of “groupthink” that has taken place. In many cases, a previously quality expert opinion on a sleeper may have catapulted him so far up boards that he no longer offers value. Similarly, some players fly under the radar simply because they haven’t received a ton of publicity.

In the beginning of the year, however, there aren’t many first-year fantasy owners participating in drafts. Instead, it’s more advanced players who are fresh off of the 2012 season. Without consensus rankings published yet, they’re working off of their own research and analysis. Most important, they typically haven’t let the opinions of others cloud their own judgments.

Thus, looking at early-season ADP can give us a really strong indication of market value for the upcoming season. Below, I’ve pasted the current standard scoring ADP for the top 30 players in 2013:

1. RB Adrian Peterson
2. RB Arian Foster
3. RB Doug Martin
4. RB Ray Rice
5. WR Calvin Johnson
6. RB Marshawn Lynch
7. RB Trent Richardson
8. RB C.J. Spiller
9. QB Aaron Rodgers
10. RB Jamaal Charles
11. QB Drew Brees
12. WR Demaryius Thomas
13. RB LeSean McCoy
14. QB Tom Brady
15. WR A.J. Green
16. RB Alfred Morris
17. WR Brandon Marshall
18. TE Rob Gronkowski
19. WR Dez Bryant
20. WR Julio Jones
21. RB Matt Forte
22. TE Jimmy Graham
23. QB Peyton Manning
24. WR Percy Harvin
25. WR Victor Cruz
26. RB Chris Johnson
27. QB Cam Newton
28. RB Stevan Ridley
29. RB David Wilson
30. RB Darren McFadden

The entire article is at RotoWire.

Fantasy Football: QB Success By Height

At RotoWire, I took a look at whether or not quarterback success is correlated with height.

You can see the quarterbacks are pretty scattered, although there does appear to be a slight correlation between height and success. Interestingly, four of the six most successful first or second-round quarterbacks drafted since 2000—Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning—all checked in at exactly 77 inches.

If we break down the result into group averages, the results become slightly clearer.

You see some success in the 71 to 73-inch group, but that’s probably the result of a small sample size. Only five such quarterbacks were drafted in the first or second round between 2000 and 2010, and two of them were Vick and Brees. The fact that the AV-per-season drops for quarterbacks in the 74 to 75-inch group suggests the success of the shorter quarterbacks is a fluke. The success of the passers who stand 76 and 77 inches tall, on the other hand, is pretty remarkable.

You can see the rest at RotoWire.