A Look at the Cowboys’ Tight End Situation

At NBC, I posted a couple articles on the Cowboys’ tight ends. The first is a look at James Hanna’s 2012 usage and how it might affect Gavin Escobar in 2013.

I thought Hanna showed some good things as a receiver in 2012, which is why the selection of Gavin Escobar in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft was so perplexing. The Cowboys targeted Hanna only 11 times last year. That alone is probably evidence that the coaching staff wasn’t all that high on him; maybe he was terrible in practice or maybe he wasn’t a good enough blocker to stay on the field. Nonetheless, all but two of Hanna’s targets came in the final four games of the season, suggesting he was progressing.

Here are the 11 routes on which Hanna was targeted last season: drag (4), hitch (3), post (2), and flat (2). If you know anything about football, you know only the post is a vertical route. Actually, only one of Hanna’s 11 targets came more than 10 yards downfield. Yes, 10 of Hanna’s 11 targets were 10 yards or fewer, including eight that were five yards or fewer. The average depth of all of the targets was just 6.4 yards.

Hanna caught eight of his targets and totaled 86 yards, primarily because he averaged 6.5 yards on the ground after each catch. The Cowboys already had an athletic, pass-catching tight end who can’t block much but is capable of getting downfield as a receiver, but they drafted another athletic, pass-catching tight end who can’t block much but is capable of getting downfield as a receiver. Why not see what you have in Hanna before spending an early-round selection on a similar player?

I also examined the Cowboys’ passing success with Jason Witten in pass protection.

On the 78 passes Romo got off with Witten as a blocker, the quarterback completed 47 of them (60.3 percent) for 604 yards (7.74 YPA), six touchdowns, and four interceptions. That’s good for a passer rating of 88.8—below Romo’s overall mark. Historically, the Cowboys have been better with Witten out in routes, and the trend continued in 2012.

Although Witten is still an above-average receiver, his blocking has deteriorated in recent years. No one really wants to admit it, but Witten isn’t dominant as either a run blocker or in pass protection. He’s not a liability by any means, but keeping him in to block on passing plays doesn’t afford Romo any extra time to find his targets. All it does is give him one less receiver, and an important one at that.

Actually, the Cowboys have given up a higher sack rate with Witten in to block as compared to when he’s in a route. In 2012, defenses sacked Romo on 5.2 percent of his dropbacks. That rate jumped to 7.1 percent when Witten was used in pass protection.

Examining the Cowboys’ Shotgun Running Game

Why don’t the Cowboys run more out of Shotgun? I took a look at NBC.

In 2012, the Cowboys used shotgun on over 50 percent of their offensive snaps (548). Many of those were on third down or late in games when defenses knew they’d pass, but many were also in normal game situations. I tracked the run/pass balance from each formation.

Gun 3 Wide Pro: 18 passes, 0 runs
Gun 5 Wide: 39 passes, 0 runs
Gun Spread: 96 passes, 3 runs
Gun Tight End Spread: 140 passes, 13 runs
Gun Tight End Trips: 85 passes, 22 runs
Gun Trips: 129 passes, 2 runs

So the Cowboys had 548 plays from a shotgun formation, but ran the ball from gun just 40 times (7.3 percent). That wouldn’t be a problem if the team used shotgun solely in pass-only situations, but Garrett called for shotgun quite often in the first half, in close games, on first and second down, and so on. That’s an advantage to the defense, even if they don’t know where the ball will be thrown, because the defensive line can pin their ears back and come right after Tony Romo. The Cowboys could theoretically hit them with a screen pass to stop the rush, but they don’t; they ran all of eight screen passes to running backs in 2012.

Check it out right here.

More on Cowboys’ Three/Four-Receiver Packages

At NBC, I’ve been taking a look at how the Cowboys might implement different personnel packages in 2013. Yesterday, I published an article detailing why they should run it more with three receivers on the field.

On their 86 designed runs with “11” personnel—one running back, one tight end, and three receivers—the Cowboys averaged 4.35 YPC in 2012. Compare that to just 3.31 YPC on all other runs. In addition to using the proper personnel, though, it’s also important to run the ball at the right times. And those “right times” might not be what you think.

The primary reason that rushing from three-receiver sets works is that it is unusual. When defenses see three receivers on the field, they generally expect a pass. Using the same thinking, offenses can often find rushing success in passing situations simply because the down-and-distance implies a pass is coming. Did you know that rushing the ball is more effective than passing on every down-and-distance from third-and-one to third-and-four? And it’s actually just a tad less successful all the way up until third-and-10. It’s not that running the ball on third down is inherently beneficial, but rather defenses gear up so much to defend the pass that they become susceptible to the run. The fact that most NFL teams pass the ball on third down—even third-and-short—benefits those offenses who decide to run it.

And today, I examined why I don’t like four-receiver sets.

The ‘Boys now have three quality pass-catching tight ends, but the selection of Williams gives the team flexibility with their personnel packages. While Williams might have been drafted primarily as the eventual replacement for Miles Austin, the Cowboys would still be wise to utilize his skills in 2013. But don’t forget that slot man Dwayne Harris showed a lot of promise last season. Unless there’s an injury ahead of him, however, he likely won’t see the field often this year.

That’s because the Cowboys don’t typically run many four-receiver sets. I counted only 29 in all of 2012—fewer than two per game. Tony Romo passed on all 29 dropbacks, completing 17 of them for 172 yards (5.93 YPA), two touchdowns, and two interceptions. That’s a paltry quarterback rating of 69.9. It’s really no surprise; Romo and the ‘Boys have struggled mightily with four receivers in the past. That’s likely because the offense is forced into an empty-set with no one in the backfield, i.e. no threat to run the ball.

NBC: Assessing Cowboys’ Use of Two Tight Ends/Three Receivers

At NBC, I’ve been posting some 2012 stats from various personnel packages and formations. My first was on the success from two-tight end looks.

The Cowboys used their 2013 second-round selection on tight end Gavin Escobar because they clearly want to run more two-tight end sets this season. Jason Garrett has long been a fan of two-tight end packages because the offense can beat defenses both on the ground and through the air. That’s the plan, at least. And the Cowboys actually pass quite a bit from two-tight end looks, especially “12” personnel—one running back, two tight ends, and two receivers.

In 2012, the offense got away from employing two tight ends as often as they’d like. The primary reason was that the Cowboys got down in games so often, forcing them to use three and four-receiver sets. By drafting another tight end capable of beating defenses as a receiver, the hope is that the Cowboys will be able to use more packages and formations from which they can effectively run and pass the ball.

Last year, the offense was moderately effective when passing the ball with two tight ends on the field, doing it 118 times for 924 yards (7.83 YPA). That’s a decent number, but I think Tony Romo & Co. could improve their efficiency by using more “run-oriented” formations when they’re planning to pass. The Cowboys have historically had a ton of success when they use two tight ends to line up in a formation from which teams normally run the ball, i.e. any sort of “Double Tight” formation with the tight ends both lined up in-line.

I also noted that “12″ and other two-tight packages are often too predictable.

Jason Garrett’s play-calls have been somewhat predictable from two-tight end sets. Looking at various two-tight end packages, there are certain formations from which the team almost exclusively runs or passes. For example, the Cowboys don’t mind passing from a traditional “Double Tight” formation, but when they do that, they usually utilize “12”personnel—one running back, two tight ends, and two receivers. When the offense lines up in any “Double Tight” formation with “22” personnel—two running backs, two tight ends, and one receiver—they rarely pass the ball.

That wouldn’t be a problem in and of itself because some predictability isn’t always a bad thing. It doesn’t matter what package or formation you use on third-and-12 because the defense knows you’ll probably be passing anyway, for example. The problem is that the Cowboys have historically utilized “22” personnel in lots of situations in which they could pass the ball. Dallas ran a “Double Tight” formation with “22” personnel on 58 plays in 2012. Well over half of those plays (34) came on first-and-10, many of them in the first half.

And finally, I examined if the Cowboys might be better off in three-receiver sets, especially when they want to run the ball.

The Cowboys have long been successful when running the ball from “11” personnel—one running back, one tight end, and three receivers—but for whatever reason, they don’t do it much. Garrett called for a run with “11” personnel 86 times last year. That’s less than one-quarter of all running plays. The Cowboys managed 4.35 YPC on those rushes, however, compared to 3.31 YPC on all other runs. Even in short-yardage situations, it could really benefit the Cowboys to get Escobar off of the field—especially since he’s a really poor blocker—and spread out the defense to opening up running lanes. As much as I like Williams’ size and speed, his biggest contribution in 2013 could be getting on the field to allow the ‘Boys to rush the ball more effectively.