The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

By Jonathan Bales

The Sportstradamus: Week 13 NFL Game Picks

In Week 12, I went 6-7-1 straight up, 4-9-1 ATS, and 8-6 on totals. That brings my season totals to 115-60-1 straight up, 83-86-6 ATS, and 97-75-1 on totals. I already picked the Thanksgiving games earlier this week. Here are the rest of the picks.

Week 13 Picks

@Indy 28 (-3.5) Tennessee 23 (OVER 44.5)

Denver 28 (-5) @Kansas City 21 (UNDER 49.5)

@Cleveland 23 (-7) Jacksonville 14 (UNDER 40.5)

@Carolina 23 Tampa Bay 17 (+8) (UNDER 42)

Chicago 23 (+1) @Minnesota 20 (UNDER 50.5)

@Philly 27 (-3) Arizona 21 (UNDER 48.5)

@NY Jets 21 Miami 20 (+3) (OVER 39.5)

@Buffalo 27 (-3) Atlanta 20 (UNDER 47.5)

@San Fran 30 (-8) St. Louis 20 (OVER 42)

New England 24 Houston 21 (+9) (UNDER 47.5)

Cincy 23 (+1.5) San Diego 20 (UNDER 48.5)

New York Giants 28 (-1) @Washington 20 (OVER 45)

New Orleans 24 (+5.5) @Seattle 20 (UNDER 47.5)

By Jonathan Bales

Thanksgiving Picks

No time to submit all of my game picks today, so I’ll do the three Thanksgiving games and then post the rest on Friday.

@Detroit 28 (-6.5) Green Bay 20 (UNDER 50)

@Dallas 27 Oakland 20 (+9) (UNDER 48)

Pittsburgh 17 (+3) @Baltimore 14 (UNDER 41.5)

Happy Thanksgiving!

By Jonathan Bales

The Sportstradamus: Week 12 NFL Game Picks

In Week 11, I went 11-4 straight up, 9-3-3 against the spread, and 7-6 on totals. That brings my record on the year to 109-53 straight up, 79-77-5 ATS, and 89-69-1 on totals. Only one ESPN expert has a better record than me on straight up picks, and I’m sure I’ll pass him by the end of the year.

As it stands right now, this figures to be my fourth (out of four) straight year being profitable in NFL. If you bet in NFL every game and over/under, you’d be 22 games above .500. Although this isn’t a great year for me, it’s still a decent record considering I pick every game and total.

Let’s take a look at the NFL game lines for Week 12 and make some picks…

Week 12 NFL Game Picks

New Orleans 31 (-9.5) @Atlanta 21 (UNDER 53.5)

@Detroit 30 (-8.5) Tampa Bay 20 (OVER 48.5)

@Houston 28 Jacksonville 20 (+10) (OVER 43)

@Green Bay 34 (-3.5) Minnesota 20 (OVER 44)

@Kansas City 24 San Diego 20 (+5.5) (OVER 41.5)

@Carolina 24 (-4) Miami 17 (UNDER 41.5)

@Cleveland 23 (-1) Pittsburgh 20 (OVER 39.5)

Chicago 23 (+1.5) @St. Louis 17 (UNDER 46.5)

@Baltimore 24 NY Jets 20 (+4.5) (OVER 38.5)

Tennessee 23 (+1) @Oakland 20 (OVER 41)

@Arizona 23 (-1.5) Indy 21 (UNDER 45.5)

@NY Giants 24 (-2.5) Dallas 17 (UNDER 46)

Denver 28 (-2.5) @New England 23 (UNDER 55)

San Fran 21 @Washington 20 (+6) (UNDER 47.5)

Here’s another take on the Cowboys-Giants matchup from CBS Sports:

Dallas (5-5) at NY Giants (4-6), 4:25 p.m. ET

Last week, Redskins linebacker London Fletcher decided to rank the teams in the NFC East. Despite the Cowboys being tied with Philadelphia atop the division at the time, Fletcher ranked the Eagles first, the Giants second, the Cowboys third and the Redskins last. London Fletcher has played in 250 consecutive NFL games, so I feel like he knows more about football than I do. I think my point here is that I’m going to roll with his rankings. Also, the Cowboys pass defense somehow manages to get worse every week and I think Eli will take advantage of that — like every other quarterback has this season.

Giants 30-27 over the Cowboys.

And one more from SB Nation:

Dallas comes off a bye week aiming to blunt the momentum of the division-rival New York Giants. And two key trends indicate the Cowboys are in good shape to return a profit at the sportsbook window.

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS past 8 seasons following a bye week and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games as an underdog. They are trying to move into a tie atop the NFC East, while derailing the Giants’ hopes of becoming the first NFL to ever start 0-6 and still make the playoffs.

By Jonathan Bales

The Sportstradamus: Week 11 NFL Game Picks

I was horrific Week 10 straight up and against the spread, going 7-7 and 5-9, respectively. I was good on totals at 10-3-1. That brings my record on the year to 98-49 straight up, 70-74-2 ATS, and 82-63-1 on totals.

If you bet $110 on every ATS and over/under pick I’ve made this year, you would have made all of $130 so far this year. I’ve been profitable every year I’ve been doing this, but I haven’t been so hot ATS in 2013. I’ve beaten out every ESPN expert except one (Jaws), and I’ve beaten them all every year for the past three years. It’s whatever.

NFL Week 11 Game Picks

@Tennessee 24 (+3) Indy 20 (OVER 42.5)

Atlanta 28 (-1) @Tampa 24 (OVER 43)

@Buffalo 20 (pk) NY Jets 17 (UNDER 41)

Detroit 24 (-2) @Pittsburgh 20 (UNDER 47.5)

@Philly 27 (-4) Washington 21 (UNDER 54)

@Miami 28 (+2.5) San Diego 27 (OVER 45.5)

@Chicago 24 (-3) Baltimore 17 (UNDER 46)

@Cincy 21 (-5.5) Cleveland 14 (UNDER 42.5)

@Houston 21 Oakland 20 (+7) (UNDER 43)

Arizona 20 (-7) @Jacksonville 10 (UNDER 41.5)

@Denver 27 Kansas City 20 (+8.5) (UNDER 50)

@Seattle 27 (-12.5) Minnesota 10 (UNDER 46.5)

@New Orleans 27 (-3) San Fran 20 (UNDER 48.5)

@NY Giants 24 (-4.5) Green Bay 20 (OVER 42)

@Carolina 24 (-1.5) New England 21 (UNDER 46.5)

By Jonathan Bales

The Sportstradamus: Week 10 NFL Game Picks

I went 9-4 straight up, 7-6 against the spread, and 5-7-1 on totals in Week 9, bringing my record on the year to 91-42 straight up, 65-65-2 against the spread, and 72-60-1 on totals.

Week 10 NFL Game Picks

Washington 23 (-1.5) @Minnesota 20 (UNDER 50)

@Tennessee 28 (-12) Jacksonville 14 (OVER 41)

Philadelphia 28 (+1.5) @Green Bay 24 (OVER 47)

@Pittsburgh 21 Buffalo 20 (+3.5) (UNDER 44)

@NY Giants 24 (-7) Oakland 17 (UNDER 44)

@Indy 31 (-9.5) St. Louis 20 (OVER 43.5)

Seattle 24 (-5.5) @Atlanta 17 (UNDER 45)

Cincinnati 20 (-1) @Baltimore 17 (UNDER 44)

@Chicago 24 (pk) Detroit 20 (UNDER 52.5)

@San Fran 23 Carolina 20 (+6.5) (UNDER 43.5)

@Arizona 24 (-2.5) Houston 20 (OVER 41)

Denver 30 @San Diego 27 (+7) (UNDER 59)

@New Orleans 28 (-6.5) Dallas 20 (UNDER 54.5)

Miami 27 (-2) @Tampa Bay 20 (OVER 40.5)

By Jonathan Bales

The Sportstradamus: Week 9 NFL Game Picks

Sorry I’m late on this. I posted my Thursday night pick earlier this week, which was wrong: Cincinnati 28 (-3) @Miami 20 (OVER 42). Going into overtime at 20-20, what was the probability of that game not going over 42? The scientific answer is “low as shit.”

I’ve gotten some emails that some of you are using my picks to make money (or lose it, this year). Now would be a good time to tell you that THESE ARE FOR FUN. I’ve had a good track record in the past and I’ve been profitable every year I’ve done this, but I’m not promising anything for you.*

Week 9 NFL Game Picks

Cincinnati 28 (-3) @Miami 20 (OVER 42)

@Carolina 30 (-7) Atlanta 20 (OVER 45)

@Dallas 31 (-9.5) Minnesota 17 (UNDER 50.5)

New Orleans 28 @NY Jets 24 (+7) (OVER 45)

Tennessee 24 (-3) @St. Louis 20 (OVER 39.5)

Kansas City 20 @Buffalo 17 (+4) (UNDER 41)

San Diego 27 (+1) @Washington 20 (UNDER 52)

Philadelphia 23 (+2.5) @Oakland 20 (UNDER 45.5)

@Seattle 24 (-14.5) Tampa Bay 7 (UNDER 41.5)

@Cleveland 20 (+2.5) Baltimore 17 (UNDER 41.5)

@New England 23 Pittsburgh 20 (+7) (UNDER 44)

Indy 24 (-2) @Houston 17 (UNDER 44.5)

@Green Bay 27 Chicago 17 (+11) (UNDER 51)

*You’ll get rich.

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys vs. Vikings: Game Plan for Dallas

Just a quick note: I didn’t have time to get to my game picks today, so I just want to submit my pick for tonight’s game right now. Cincinnati 28 (-3) @Miami 20 (OVER 42).

Okay, now onto the game plan for Dallas:

DO attack Josh Robinson.

The Vikings have two cornerbacks playing quality football—Xavier Rhodes and Chris Cook. Cook suffered a hip strain last week, but TwinCities.com is reporting he’s day-to-day. Both Rhodes and Cook have allowed 1.05 yards per route or less, according to PFF, ranking them in the top 30 in the NFL. Rhodes’ 0.81 mark is the eighth best in the league.

Meanwhile, cornerback Josh Robinson isn’t playing so well.

At 2.20 yards allowed per snap, Robinson ranks 74th in the league—the second worst for any cornerback who has played at least half of his team’s snaps.

To give you an idea of how poorly Robinson has played, consider that he’s allowed a completion on 50 of 56 throws his way—89.3 percent. No other cornerback in the NFL has allowed more than 35 receptions!

The Vikings probably won’t place Robinson on wide receiver Dez Bryant too much, so it could be a big day for Terrance Williams.

DO run more play action!

I’ve pretty much made a commitment to posting the Cowboys play-action numbers every week. Take a look at the bottom five quarterback in the NFL in play-action passing rate, per PFF.

That’s Romo with the lowest rate, by far, even when compared to the quarterbacks who attempt the fewest play-action passes in the NFL.

And after generating a 109.1 passer rating on play action in 2012, Romo’s current play-action passer rating this year is 126.5. Increasing the play-action rate might decrease Romo’s efficiency on the look, but the overall efficiency of the offense would be enhanced if the Cowboys substantially increased the number of passes on which they use play-action.

By Jonathan Bales

The Sportstradamus: Week 7 NFL Game Picks

I had a fantastic Week 6, going 10-5 straight up, 7-8 against the spread, and 8-7 on totals. Oh now wait, that’s mediocre as shit again. So on the season, I’m 61-31 straight up, 40-50-2 ATS, and 52-40 on totals. Still slightly above .500 against the spread and on over/unders.

Week 7 Picks

Seattle 20 (-5) @Arizona 13 (UNDER 40.5)

@NY Jets 21 (+4) New England 20 (UNDER 43.5)

San Diego 27 (-7.5) @Jacksonville 17 (UNDER 45.5)

@Kansas City 23 (-6) Houston 14 (UNDER 39.5)

@Detroit 21 Cincinnati 20 (+3) (UNDER 47)

@Miami 27 Buffalo 20 (+7.5) (OVER 42.5)

Chicago 23 (pk) @Washington 20 (UNDER 50.5)

@Philly 28 (-3) Dallas 21 (UNDER 55.5)

@Carolina 28 (-6) St. Louis 20 (OVER 42)

@Atlanta 28 Tampa Bay 24 (+7) (OVER 42.5)

San Fran 24 (-4) @Tennessee 17 (OVER 40)

@Green Bay 30 Cleveland 24 (+10) (OVER 46)

@Pittsburgh 20 (-2) Baltimore 17 (UNDER 41)

Denver 34 @Indy 30 (+6.5)  (OVER 56)

@NY Giants 31 (-3) Minnesota 27 (OVER 46.5)

By Jonathan Bales

The Sportstradamus: Week 6 NFL Game Picks

At this time last year, I posted my Week 6 Game Picks with a record of 46-31 straight up, 29-46 against the spread, and 41-33-2 on totals. I was doing well on totals, but not so hot ATS. I finished the year on fire, though, to have one of my best overall seasons to date.

Twelve months later, same thing. I went 9-5 straight up, 7-7 ATS, and 6-8 on totals last week, bringing my record on the year to 51-26 straight up, 33-42-2 ATS, and 44-33 on totals. I’m still slightly above .500 on ATS picks and totals combined, but not by much. I highly doubt I’ll be able to rebound in the same way I did in 2012, so. . .fuck.

But I definitely think it’s easier to pick games as the season rolls along and I can collect more data. Here are my picks for Week 6.

Week 6 Picks

@Chicago 23 NY Giants 20 (+7.5) (UNDER 47)

@Kansas City 24 Oakland 17 (+9) (OVER 40.5)

Philly 27 (-1) @Tampa Bay 20 (OVER 45.5)

Green Bay 23 (-3) @Baltimore 17 (UNDER 48.5)

Detroit 21 @Cleveland 20 (+3) (UNDER 44)

@Minnesota 28 Carolina 27 (+3) (OVER 44)

@Houston 23 (-7) St. Louis 10 (UNDER 43)

@NY Jets 20 (-2) Pittsburgh 13 (UNDER 41)

Cincy 20 Buffalo 17 (+7) (UNDER 42)

@Seattle 21 Tennessee 14 (+13.5) (UNDER 40.5)

@Denver 44 Jacksonville 20 (+27.5) (OVER 53)

@San Fran 24 Arizona 20 (+10.5) (OVER 41.5)

New Orleans 27 (+2.5) @New England 20 (UNDER 50.5)

@Dallas 28 (5.5) Washington 21 (UNDER 53.5)

Indy 31 (-1.5) @San Diego 28 (OVER 50)

By Jonathan Bales

The Sportstradamus: Week 5 NFL Game Picks

Are you guys starting to get the feeling that I’ve just been lucky picking games the past few years but I really kind of suck? Nah, me neither.

9-6 straight up, 6-8-1 against the spread, and 11-4 on totals. That brings my record on the year to 42-21 straight up, 26-35-2 ATS, and 38-25 on totals. That’s still actually not horrible considering my overall record ATS and on O/Us is 64-60-2.

Week 5 NFL Picks

@Cleveland 20 Buffalo 17 (+3.5) (UNDER 41)

Kansas City 20 (-3) @Tennessee 14 (UNDER 39)

@Miami 27 (-3) Baltimore 20 (OVER 43.5)

@St. Louis 23 Jacksonville 21 (+11.5) (OVER 41.5)

New England 23 (+1.5) @Cincy 17 (UNDER 45)

Seattle 21 @Indy 20 (+3) (UNDER 44)

@Green Bay 30 Detroit 27 (+7) (OVER 53.5)

New Orleans 28 (pk) @Chicago 20 (UNDER 48.5)

Philly 30 (+2) @NY Giants 27 (OVER 53)

@Arizona 24 (+2) Carolina 20 (OVER 41.5)

San Diego 31 @Oakland 27 (+4.5) (OVER 45)

Denver 34 (-7) @Dallas 21 (UNDER 57)

@San Fran 24 Houston 23 (+6.5) (OVER 41.5)

@Atlanta 28 NY Jets 20 (+10) (OVER 43.5)