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Game Picks | The DC Times - Part 2

The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

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The Sportstradamus: Week 4 NFL Game Picks

Last week, I went 10-6 straight up, 6-9-1 ATS, and 7-9 on totals, bringing my records on the year to 33-15 straight up, 20-27-1 ATS, and 27-21 on totals. So that’s just slightly under .500 on the spread and totals combined, which obviously isn’t where I want to be. I started horrifically last year, too, but ended up killing it down the stretch. I’m hoping more game data will help me do the same this year.

San Fran 24 @St. Louis 23 (+3.5) (OVER 42.5)

Pittsburgh 21 Minnesota 20 (+3) (UNDER 42)

@Buffalo 27 (+3) Baltimore 24 (OVER 44)

Cincy 20 @Cleveland 17 (+4.5) (UNDER 42.5)

Indy 24 @Jacksonville 20 (+8.5) (OVER 42.5)

Seattle 24 (-3) @Houston 20 (OVER 42)

@Tampa Bay 21 (-2) Arizona 17 (UNDER 40.5)

@Detroit 28 (-3) Chicago 24 (OVER 47.5)

@Kansas City 21 NY Giants 20 (+4.5) (UNDER 44)

@Tennessee 21 NY Jets 20 (+3.5) (OVER 39.5)

Dallas 27 (-2) @San Diego 23 (OVER 46.5)

@Oakland 21 Washington 20 (+3.5) (UNDER 43.5)

@Denver 34 Philly 27 (+11) (OVER 57.5)

@Atlanta 24 (-2) New England 20 (UNDER 50)

@New Orleans 30 (-6.5) Miami 23 (OVER 48)

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The Sportstradamus: Week 3 NFL Game Picks

I had a poor Week 2, continuing my trend of poor early-season starts, finishing 10-6 straight up, 5-11 against the spread, and 12-4 on totals. That brings my record on the season to 23-9 straight up, 13-18-1 against the spread, and 20-12 on totals.

Week 3 Picks

@Philly 27 (-3) Kansas City 20 (UNDER 50.5)

@Tennessee 27 San Diego 26 (+3) (OVER 43.5)

@Minnesota 17 Cleveland 13 (+7) (UNDER 41)

@New England 20 Tampa Bay 14 (+7) (UNDER 44)

@Baltimore 20 (+2.5) Houston 17 (UNDER 45)

@Dallas 24 St. Louis 21 (+4) (UNDER 47.5)

@New Orleans 34 Arizona 27 (+7.5) (OVER 48.5)

@Washington 31 (-1.5) Detroit 27 (OVER 49)

Green Bay 31 (-2) @Cincy 23 (OVER 48.5)

@Carolina 20 (-1) NY Giants 17 (UNDER 45.5)

Atlanta 28 (+3) @Miami 24 (OVER 44.5)

@San Fran 27 Indy 20 (+10) (OVER 46)

@Seattle 27 Jacksonville 10 (+19.5) (UNDER 41)

@NY Jets 20 (-2.5) Buffalo 17 (UNDER 39)

Chicago 21 (-2.5) @Pittsburgh 17 (UNDER 40.5)

@Denver 31 Oakland 17 (+15) (UNDER 49.5)

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The Sportstradamus: Week 2 NFL Game Picks

You might say my Week 1 game picks were mediocre (and you’d be right), but I’ve been so shitty in the first month of the season in recent years that I’ll take 13-3 straight up (actually, that’s awesome), 8-7-1 against the spread, and 8-8 on totals. It’s sometimes difficult to predict early-season results because the data I study isn’t as relevant. Once we have around four weeks of data, I tend to perform better.

Week 2 NFL Game Picks

@New England 31 NY Jets 21 (+11.5) (OVER 42)

@Philly 30 (-7) San Diego 23 (UNDER 55)

@Baltimore 21 Cleveland 17 (+6.5) (UNDER 43.5)

@Houston 24 Tennessee 20 (+9) (OVER 43)

@Indy 28 (-2.5) Miami 24 (OVER 43)

Carolina 24 (-2.5) @Buffalo 21 (OVER 43.5)

@Atlanta 30 (-6.5) St. Louis 23 (OVER 46.5)

@Green Bay 34 Washington 30 (+7.5) (OVER 49.5)

Dallas 21 (+3) @Kansas City 20 (UNDER 46.5)

New Orleans 28 (-3) @Tampa Bay 24 (OVER 47)

@Chicago 24 (-6) Minnesota 14 (UNDER 42)

Detroit 24 (-1.5) @Arizona 20 (UNDER 48.5)

@Oakland 17 Jacksonville 14 (+5.5) (UNDER 39.5)

Denver 31 (-4.5) @NY Giants 27 (OVER 54.5)

San Francisco 24 (+3) Seattle 17 (UNDER 44.5)

@Cincy 23 (-7) Pittsburgh 14 (UNDER 41)

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The Sportstradamus: Week 1 NFL Game Picks

You probably shouldn’t bet on NFL games. If you do, you probably shouldn’t use my picks. If you use my picks, you probably shouldn’t blame me if they lose. This is for fun.

Having said that, you’re a fool if you don’t use my picks to make money (that’s a joke, NFL). Over the past three seasons, here are my records:

2012

  • 171-84-1 straight up (67.1 percent)
  • 135-114-7 against the spread (54.2 percent)
  • 136-117-3 on totals (53.8 percent)

2011

  • 175-81 straight up (68.4 percent)
  • 132-113-11 against the spread (53.9 percent)
  • 139-111-6 on totals (55.6 percent)

2010

  • 164-92 record on straight up picks (64.1 percent)
  • 138-110-8 against the spread (55.6 percent)
  • 127-121-8 on over/under (51.2 percent)

Overall record since 2010

  • 510-257-1 straight up (66.5 percent)
  • 405-337-26 against the spread (54.6 percent)
  • 402-349-17 on totals (53.5 percent)

You can see all of my picks right here. I’ll post them every Thursday.

Also, apparently I had one of the best weeks of picking games anyone has ever had in Week 7 of last season. I recently received this e-mail:

This notice is from the National Score Predicting League (NSPL). We tabulate and rank NFL score predicting sources according to their accuracy.

John Gambadoro of KTAR in Arizona set a statistical record relating to NFL score predicting accuracy in 2005. That record stood until week seven of last season. The record that you set in Margin Differential was based on 13 week seven predictions that you made. Margin Differential measures how many points your predicted margin of victory was in a given sample. The sample where you set the record includes the 13 games played week seven of last season. It can even be expanded to include the Monday night game from week six to make a 14 game sample.

Your Margin Differential was 3.79 points, smashing Gambadoro’s mark of 4.21. This finding reflects more than a decade of collecting and tabulating NFL score predictions from sportswriters, bloggers, and TV and radio personalities.  If you multiplied the seasons we’ve been doing this times the weeks in a season times the sources that we’ve tracked, we’re talking about over 3,000 samples in that study.

In the same week you set another milestone. You nailed the amount of points the winner won by (what we call a bullseye) FIVE TIMES.  No one has gotten five bullseyes in one week before.

Specifically:
Minnesota did beat the Cards by 7.
NYG did beat the Skins by 4.
The Saints did beat the Bucs by 7.
The Raiders did beat the Jags by 3.
The Bears did beat the Lions by 7.

We have notified Mr. Gambadoro that his record has fallen. We would like to send to you a certificate
confirming your achievement, which is posted in the Stats section of our site, www.2nspl.com. We want you to have a chance to digest this before we tell you more.

So pretty much the most accurate week from any expert ever. No big deal (but kind of a big deal). Will I have my first ever 16-0 week? Let’s find out.

Week 1 NFL Game Picks

@Denver 28 (-7) Baltimore 17 (UNDER 48.5)

New England 31 (-9) @Buffalo 17 (UNDER 51)

@Pittsburgh 24 Tennessee 20 (+7) (OVER 42)

@New Orleans 27 (-3) Atlanta 21 (UNDER 54)

Tampa Bay 21 @NY Jets 20 (+3.5) (OVER 39.5)

Kansas City 20 @Jacksonville 17 (+4) (UNDER 41)

@Chicago 21 Cincinnati 20 (+3) (UNDER 41.5)

Miami 27 (+1) @Cleveland 21 (OVER 40.5)

Seattle 23 @Carolina 21 (+3.5) (UNDER 45)

@Detroit 27 (-5) Minnesota 20 (OVER 46.5)

@Indy 30 (-9.5) Oakland 14 (UNDER 47)

@St. Louis 21 (-4.5) Arizona 17 (UNDER 41)

@San Fran 28 (-4.5) Green Bay 23 (OVER 48.5)

@Dallas 21 NY Giants 20 (+3.5) (UNDER 48.5)

@Washington 27 Philly 24 (+3.5) (UNDER 51.5)

Houston 27 (-3.5) @San Diego 13 (UNDER 44)

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The Sportstradamus: Final 2012 Record

I’ve been traveling a lot lately, so I never got to updating my record after a solid Week 17. I went 13-3 straight up, 13-3 against the spread, and 8-8 on totals. My final 2012 record was 171-84-1 straight up, 135-114-7 against the spread, and 136-117-3 on totals. It’s my third consecutive winning year. My records from 2010 and 2011 are below:

2011

  • 175-81 straight up (68.4 percent)
  • 132-113-11 against the spread (53.9 percent)
  • 139-111-6 on totals (55.6 percent)

2010

  • 164-92 record on straight up picks (64.1 percent)
  • 138-110-8 against the spread (55.6 percent)
  • 127-121-8 on over/under (51.2 percent)

Overall record since 2010

  • 510-257-1 straight up (66.5 percent)
  • 405-337-26 against the spread (54.6 percent)
  • 402-349-17 on totals (53.5 percent)

If you put $1,100 on each game I picked against the spread (and totals) since 2010, you would have made $52,400.

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The Sportstradamus: Week 17 NFL Game Picks

In Week 16, I went 11-5 straight up, 8-7-1 against the spread, and 9-6-1 on totals. On the year, I’m 158-81-1 straight up, 122-111-7 against the spread, and 128-109-3 on totals.

Week 17 Picks

@Buffalo 23 NY Jets 20 (+3.5) (OVER 39)

@New England 28 Miami 20 (+10.5) (OVER 46)

@Cincinnati 24 (-2.5) Baltimore 21 (OVER 41)

@Indy 23 (+7) Houston 20 (UNDER 46.5)

@Tennessee 20 (-4) Jacksonville 14 (UNDER 42)

@NY Giants 30 (-7) Philadelphia 20 (OVER 46)

@Detroit 24 (+3) Chicago 23 (OVER 45)

Green Bay 24 @Minnesota 23 (+3) (OVER 45.5)

@Atlanta 24 Tampa 21 (+5) (UNDER 45.5)

Carolina 27 (+5) New Orleans 24 (UNDER 54)

@Denver 30 Kansas City 17 (+16) (OVER 42)

@San Diego 28 Oakland 20 (+10) (OVER 39)

@San Fran 24 Arizona 14 (+16.5) (UNDER 39.5)

@Seattle 24 St. Louis 17 (+11) (UNDER 42)

@Washington 31 (-3) Dallas 27 (OVER 49)

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The Sportstradamus: Week 16 NFL Game Picks

In Week 15, I went 12-4 straight up, 8-8 against the spread, and 10-6 against the spread, bringing my records on the season to 147-76-1, 114-104-6, and 119-103-2, respectively.

Week 16 Picks

Atlanta 24 @Detroit 23 (+3.5) (UNDER 50.5)

@Green Bay 30 Tennessee 20 (+12.5) (OVER 46)

@Carolina 30 (-8) Oakland 20 (OVER 46)

@Miami 24 Buffalo 20 (+4.5) (OVER 41.5)

@Pittsburgh 21 Cincinnati 20 (+3.5) (UNDER 42)

New England 35 (-14.5) @Jacksonville 17 (OVER 50)

Indy 24 Kansas City 21 (+7) (OVER 41.5)

@Dallas 31 New Orleans 30 (+3) (OVER 51.5)

Washington 28 Philadelphia 24 (+6.5) (OVER 44.5)

@Tampa 21 St. Louis 20 (+3) (UNDER 44.5)

New York Giants 23 (-2) @Baltimore 20 (UNDER 47)

@Houston 28 Minnesota 24 (+7.5) (OVER 44)

@Denver 31 (-13) Cleveland 14 (OVER 44.5)

San Diego 21 (+2.5) @New York Jets 20 (OVER 38.5)

Chicago 17 @Arizona 13 (+5.5) (UNDER 36.5)

@Seattle 24 (+1) San Fran 23 (OVER 39)

By

The Sportstradamus: Week 15 NFL Game Picks

I went 11-5 straight up, 12-3-1 against the spread, and 8-8 on totals last week, bringing my record on the year to 135-72-1 straight up, 106-96-6 against the spread, and 109-97-2 on totals–a bit more on track after a rough start to the year.

Week 15

Cincinnati 24 @Philadelphia 23 (+5) (OVER 45)

@Chicago 24 (+3) Green Bay 23 (OVER 43)

@Atlanta 27 (-1.5) NY Giants 20 (UNDER 51)

@New Orleans 37 Tampa Bay 34 (+3.5) (OVER 53.5)

@St. Louis 24 (-3) Minnesota 17 (OVER 38.5)

@Cleveland 24 (+1.5) Washington 23 (OVER 37)

@Miami 24 (-7) Jacksonville 14 (OVER 37.5)

Denver 28 (-2.5) @Baltimore 21 (OVER 48)

@Houston 30 (-8.5) Indy 17 (UNDER 48)

Carolina 28 (+3) @San Diego 20 (OVER 44.5)

Seattle 24 Buffalo 21 (+5.5) (OVER 43)

Detroit 24 (-6) @Arizona 17 (UNDER 44)

@Dallas 24 (+1.5) Pittsburgh 21 (OVER 44)

@Oakland 27 (-3) Kansas City 20 (OVER 44)

@New England 24 San Fran 23 (+5) (OVER 46)

@Tennessee 21 NY Jets 20 (+2) (UNDER 41.5)

By

The Sportstradamus: Week 14 NFL Game Picks

I forgot to submit my picks before last night’s game, so you’ll just have to trust me that I had the Broncos winning 30-14 (I told my friend Jimmy my pick before the game, I swear, so just ask him about it). Last week, I went 9-7 straight up, 11-5 against the spread, and 7-9 on totals, bringing my record on the year to 124-67-1 straight up, 94-93-5 against the spread, and 101-89-2 on totals.

Week 14 Picks

@Washington 30 (-2) Baltimore 24 (OVER 47)

@Cleveland 20 (-6.5) Kansas City 10 (UNDER 38)

@Pittsburgh 24 San Diego 20 (+8) (OVER 41)

@Indy 24 Tennessee 20 (+5.5) (UNDER 48)

NY Jets 20 (-2.5) @Jacksonville 17 (UNDER 38.5)

Chicago 21 @Minnesota 20 (+3) (OVER 39)

@Carolina 27 (+3.5) Atlanta 24 (OVER 48)

@Tampa Bay 27 Philadelphia 20 (+7.5) (UNDER 48)

@Buffalo 24 St. Louis 21 (+3.5) (OVER 42)

@Cincy 27 (-3) Dallas 23 (OVER 45.5)

@San Fran 24 Miami 17 (+10.5) (OVER 38.5)

@New York Giants 28 (-5) New Orleans 20 (UNDER 53)

@Seattle 24 (-10) Arizona 7 (UNDER 36)

@Green Bay 28 Detroit 24 (+7) (OVER 50)

@New England 23 Houston 20 (+3.5) (UNDER 51)

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The Sportstradamus: Week 13 NFL Game Picks

Last week, I went 11-5 straight up, 7-6-3 against the spread, and 10-6 on totals. My overall record on the year is now 115-60-1 straight up, 83-88-5 against the spread, and 94-80-2 on totals.

Week 13

@Atlanta 30 (-3.5) New Orleans 24 (UNDER 55)

@Chicago 24 Seattle 23 (+3.5) (OVER 37.5)

@Green Bay 28 (-8) Minnesota 17 (UNDER 46.5)

San Fran 28 (-7) @St. Louis 17 (OVER 40)

@NY Jets 23 Arizona 20 (+4.5) (OVER 36.5)

Carolina 28 (-3) @Kansas City 14 (OVER 40.5)

@Detroit 27 (-4.5) Indy 20 (UNDER 51)

@Buffalo 24 (-6) Jacksonville 17 (UNDER 45)

New England 27 @Miami 20 (+7.5) (UNDER 51.5)

Houston 28 (-6) @Tennessee 21 (OVER 47)

@Denver 30 (-7) @Tampa Bay 20 (UNDER 50.5)

@Baltimore 20 Pittsburgh 13 (+8) (UNDER 39.5)

@Oakland 24 (PK) Cleveland 23 (OVER 45)

@San Diego 23 (+1.5) Cincy 20 (UNDER 46)

@Dallas 28 Philadelphia 21 (+10) (OVER 43)

@Washington 28 (+3) NY Giants 27  (OVER 51)