You probably shouldn’t bet on NFL games. If you do, you probably shouldn’t use my picks. If you use my picks, you probably shouldn’t blame me if they lose. This is for fun.
Having said that, you’re a fool if you don’t use my picks to make money (that’s a joke, NFL). Over the past three seasons, here are my records:
- 171-84-1 straight up (67.1 percent)
- 135-114-7 against the spread (54.2 percent)
- 136-117-3 on totals (53.8 percent)
- 175-81 straight up (68.4 percent)
- 132-113-11 against the spread (53.9 percent)
- 139-111-6 on totals (55.6 percent)
- 164-92 record on straight up picks (64.1 percent)
- 138-110-8 against the spread (55.6 percent)
- 127-121-8 on over/under (51.2 percent)
Overall record since 2010
- 510-257-1 straight up (66.5 percent)
- 405-337-26 against the spread (54.6 percent)
- 402-349-17 on totals (53.5 percent)
You can see all of my picks right here. I’ll post them every Thursday.
Also, apparently I had one of the best weeks of picking games anyone has ever had in Week 7 of last season. I recently received this e-mail:
This notice is from the National Score Predicting League (NSPL). We tabulate and rank NFL score predicting sources according to their accuracy.
John Gambadoro of KTAR in Arizona set a statistical record relating to NFL score predicting accuracy in 2005. That record stood until week seven of last season. The record that you set in Margin Differential was based on 13 week seven predictions that you made. Margin Differential measures how many points your predicted margin of victory was in a given sample. The sample where you set the record includes the 13 games played week seven of last season. It can even be expanded to include the Monday night game from week six to make a 14 game sample.
Your Margin Differential was 3.79 points, smashing Gambadoro’s mark of 4.21. This finding reflects more than a decade of collecting and tabulating NFL score predictions from sportswriters, bloggers, and TV and radio personalities. If you multiplied the seasons we’ve been doing this times the weeks in a season times the sources that we’ve tracked, we’re talking about over 3,000 samples in that study.
In the same week you set another milestone. You nailed the amount of points the winner won by (what we call a bullseye) FIVE TIMES. No one has gotten five bullseyes in one week before.
Minnesota did beat the Cards by 7.
NYG did beat the Skins by 4.
The Saints did beat the Bucs by 7.
The Raiders did beat the Jags by 3.
The Bears did beat the Lions by 7.
We have notified Mr. Gambadoro that his record has fallen. We would like to send to you a certificate
confirming your achievement, which is posted in the Stats section of our site, www.2nspl.com. We want you to have a chance to digest this before we tell you more.
So pretty much the most accurate week from any expert ever. No big deal (but kind of a big deal). Will I have my first ever 16-0 week? Let’s find out.
Week 1 NFL Game Picks
@Denver 28 (-7) Baltimore 17 (UNDER 48.5)
New England 31 (-9) @Buffalo 17 (UNDER 51)
@Pittsburgh 24 Tennessee 20 (+7) (OVER 42)
@New Orleans 27 (-3) Atlanta 21 (UNDER 54)
Tampa Bay 21 @NY Jets 20 (+3.5) (OVER 39.5)
Kansas City 20 @Jacksonville 17 (+4) (UNDER 41)
@Chicago 21 Cincinnati 20 (+3) (UNDER 41.5)
Miami 27 (+1) @Cleveland 21 (OVER 40.5)
Seattle 23 @Carolina 21 (+3.5) (UNDER 45)
@Detroit 27 (-5) Minnesota 20 (OVER 46.5)
@Indy 30 (-9.5) Oakland 14 (UNDER 47)
@St. Louis 21 (-4.5) Arizona 17 (UNDER 41)
@San Fran 28 (-4.5) Green Bay 23 (OVER 48.5)
@Dallas 21 NY Giants 20 (+3.5) (UNDER 48.5)
@Washington 27 Philly 24 (+3.5) (UNDER 51.5)
Houston 27 (-3.5) @San Diego 13 (UNDER 44)