The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

Dec
28

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys-Redskins Week 17 Previews

Category: All Film/Stats, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, DC Times Blog, Film/Stat Analysis, Game Plan, Gameday, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

My latest Running the Numbers entry is a look at the Redskins’ offensive tendencies.

It starts with the running game.

Washington’s offense moves because their star rookie quarterback, Robert Griffin III, is as versatile as they come. In many ways, Griffin lets defensive coordinators pick their own poison. If they play with two deep safeties, RGIII and fellow rookie Alfred Morris will gash them on the ground. If coordinators play with eight men in the box or, even worse, if they blitz, Griffin can beat them with his world-class arm; his record 141.8 passer rating against the blitz is evidence of that.

Averaging 6.6 yards per carry (YPC), the Cowboys can’t let RGIII get going as a runner. They’re going to need to find a way to stop Griffin without moving their safeties toward the line, though, or else they’ll be susceptible through the air.

The running game is the passing game.

For the Redskins, the success of the running and passing games are inherently connected, even more so than for other teams. Because Washington sets up the majority of their offense off of read-option looks, the offense’s ability to run the football is paramount in throwing the ball with some sort of efficiency. The Redskins’ 39.2 percent play-action rate is evidence of just how intertwined their running game is with their air attack. In comparison, the Cowboys’ play-action rate is just over one-quarter of that of Washington’s.

Head to DallasCowboys.com for the full article.

At Dallas Morning News, I broke down why quick passes could be the Cowboys’ best friend on Sunday night.

On the Cowboys’ crucial third down in overtime last week against the Saints, Tony Romo and Dez Bryant were unable to connect on a slant to extend the drive. The Cowboys were forced to punt, and they never saw the ball again.

On the day, Romo completed only three of his seven slants, producing a poor 42.9 percent completion rate that’s highly uncharacteristic for the quarterback. The slant has really been the Cowboys’ best friend all year; thus far in 2012, Romo has completed 51 of his 70 slants (72.9 percent) for 624 yards (8.91 YPA), one touchdown, and no picks—good for a 104.7 passer rating. Even against New Orleans, Romo’s three completions on slants went for 70 yards and a score.

Against Washington, it will be vital for Romo to connect on slants, particular to Bryant and Miles Austin. In addition to extending drives on third downs, slants and other quick-hitting routes could give the Redskins problems. Washington’s starting cornerbacks—Josh Wilson and DeAngelo Hall—haven’t been the best of tacklers this year. Actually, the duo rank last and fourth-to-last in yards-after-catch this year.

Read the whole post at DMN.

At NBC’s Blue Star blog, I presented a possible game plan for Rob Ryan.

Don’t bite on read-option plays.

The Redskins have one of the league’s top rushing games, averaging 5.1 yards-per-carry. In terms of expected points—the number of points a team can be expected to score at any given point on a drive—Washington has “gained” 37.4 on the year. That’s the best number in the NFL by a wide margin, meaning the running game has helped the Redskins score more points than it has for any other squad. To give you an idea of how outstanding Washington’s running game has been, consider that only seven teams in the league have totaled positive expected points from running.

Check it out at NBC.

Dec
27

By Jonathan Bales

How Cowboys Can Keep Pace with Redskins’ Offense

Category: All Film/Stats, DallasCowboys.com, Film/Stat Analysis, Game Plan, Gameday, NBC, Recent, What to Watch/Key Matchups Leave a Comment

At DallasCowboys.com, I broke down the Redskins’ offense and how Dallas can stop it.

Redskins’ Rushing Offense

At 5.1 yards per carry (YPC), the Redskins rank third in the NFL in rushing efficiency. Led by rookies Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris, Washington is actually an even better rushing team than their YPC suggests. By breaking down all running plays in terms of the “expected points” a team can expect to score on a given drive before and after a play, it’s possible to account for specific game situations. A 2-yard run on first-and-10 is a negative for an offense, it decreases expected points, whereas a 2-yard gain on fourth-and-1 dramatically increases expected points.

Washington ranks first in the NFL in expected points added from their running game at 37.4, well ahead of every other team. To give you a sense of just how dominant the Redskins’ rushing attack has been in 2012, consider that only seven teams in the entire NFL have even created positive expected points with their running games.

Check it out at the team site.

And at NBC, I took a look at three key matchups for the Cowboys’ offense.

WR Dez Bryant/Miles Austin versus CB DeAngelo Hall/Josh Wilson

It’s almost a foregone conclusion that Bryant will have a big game this week. The receiver has now scored in seven straight games, including three contests with two touchdowns. Bryant’s 23.3 percent touchdown rate over that time is phenomenal. Meanwhile, Redskins cornerbacks Hall and Wilson have both allowed at least 9.55 YPA and a 93.3 passer rating. Wilson has yielded six touchdowns and Hall a 69.6 percent completion rate.

Perhaps more important, Wilson and Hall have given up 463 and 366 yards-after-catch, respectively, ranking them as the worst and fourth-worst cornerbacks in the entire NFL. With the size and run-after-catch ability the Cowboys have with Austin and Bryant outside, look for the rate of quick screens to continue to increase.

Check out NBC for the full article.

Dec
22

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys vs Saints: Offensive Game Plan for Dallas

Category: Game Plan, Gameday, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

I posted a four-point offensive game plan for the Cowboys against the Saints in Week 16.

Attack the Saints over the middle.

Free safety Malcolm Jenkins was just lost for the season and replaced by Isa Abdul-Quddus. Paired with Roman Harper, the Saints may very well possess the worst starting safety duo in the NFL. Harper—who the Saints could very well use to cover Witten—has allowed 9.98 YPA on 62 targets this year.

Use DeMarco Murray as needed.

The Saints’ run defense is poor. Harper helps out by lining up within eight yards of the line on nearly half of his snaps, but New Orleans has still allowed 5.0 YPC this year—second-worst in the league. The Cowboys don’t necessarily need to run the ball often early on, but they shouldn’t have any trouble getting Murray going when they need it.

Check out the whole game plan at NBC.

Dec
20

By Jonathan Bales

How to Stop the Saints’ Prolific Offense

Category: All Film/Stats, Dallas Morning News, Film/Stat Analysis, Game Plan, Gameday, NBC, Recent, What to Watch/Key Matchups Leave a Comment

The Saints aren’t a particularly good team right now, but their offense is still among the best in the NFL. At NBC, I broke down three key matchups for the Cowboys’ defense in this contest.

DT Sean Lissemore versus OG Jahri Evans

When I was in high school, I visited a football camp at a small Division II college in northern Pennsylvania called Bloomsburg. There, I watched a massive man bench press 185 pounds 50 times, easily, and then get up and walk away. They called him “Rhino,” and now he (Jahri Evans) is one of the best offensive guards in the NFL.

The Saints love to run the football outside (when they run it, that is), averaging 7.4 YPC on 78 carries outside of the tackles. Outside linebackers Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware play so well against the run, however, that New Orleans could be forced to run it up the gut. There, Lissemore’s ability to man his ground against Rhino & Co. could be the deciding factor in the Saints’ ability to rush the ball effectively. Playing against one of the league’s most lethal air attacks, the last thing Dallas needs is to be unable to stop the run as well.

Read the whole post at NBC.

And at Dallas Morning News, I examined how Rob Ryan could potentially limit Drew Brees.

Getting Pressure

The Cowboys would obviously benefit from sacking Brees, but more important than that is consistently getting in his face. At 6’0’’, Brees struggles most with rushers right in front of him. The problem is that blitzing Brees is a risky proposition; Brees has a 102.6 passer rating when blitzed in 2012. Thus, the Cowboys will need to find ways to get to Brees with three, four, and the occasional five-man rush.

Let’s take a look at how the Giants picked off Brees in Week 14. . .

With heavy “22” personnel, the Saints lined up in Twins Right on a first down at the Giants’ 31-yard line. The Giants showed two deep safeties prior to the snap and didn’t appear to be in a blitz.

As the Saints have done on 19.3 percent of their passes this season, they showed a run-fake. The Giants linebackers didn’t bite on the fake and their four down-linemen continued toward Brees on their rush.

As Brees turned back around to throw, Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul was hot on his trail. As Brees threw the football, JPP got a hand up and nearly swatted it away.

Knowing the Giants were in Cover 2, Brees figured the deep middle of the field would be open. With Lance Moore on a go on the outside and tight end Jimmy Graham running a seam route, Brees immediately tossed the ball down the middle to what should have been an open area for Graham.

Safety Stevie Brown didn’t bite deep on the go from Moore, however, instead playing over top of Graham. It looked as though that was the plan for the Giants throughout the game, and it worked; Brees knew where Brown should have been, so he decided to hit Graham on what’s usually a Cover 2-beater. The pressure in his face from Pierre-Paul probably hurt his ability to see Brown creeping over.

See the rest at DMN.

Dec
14

By Jonathan Bales

Offensive, Defensive Game Plans for Cowboys vs Steelers

Category: All Film/Stats, Dallas Morning News, DC Times Blog, Film/Stat Analysis, Game Plan, Gameday, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

At Dallas Morning News, I published an analysis of the Steelers’ screen game.

On a 1st and 10 at the Chargers’ 39-yard line, the Steelers lined up in a bunch trips formation, isolating Brown to the boundary (top of the screen).

Already the third quarter, it was one of the few times a San Diego cornerback played off-coverage. The Steelers had a stretch run to the right called—you could tell by the way the linemen fired off of the ball. Nonetheless, when Ben Roethlisberger saw cornerback Antoine Cason’s position, he pulled the ball from the running back’s belly.

The Steelers have a lot of plays like this one in which Roethlisberger can abandon the running play and hit a receiver on a quick screen. This particular screen to Brown resembled a traditional play-action pass, but the original intention was really to run a stretch.

The Steelers’ screen game is a major reason they’re no longer considered a “balanced” football team; they’ve thrown the ball 60.2 percent of the time in 2012, including on 61.3 percent of plays through three quarters. It’s easy to get caught up in such numbers and say the Steelers are passing too often, but the screens they run are high-percentage passes that are really nothing more than an extended handoff.

The screen to Brown went for nine yards, setting up Pittsburgh in a desirable 2nd and 1 situation. That down-and-distance is the most valuable in all of football, possessing the opportunity to strike on a big play with minimal risk; if you don’t connect, you’re still left with two plays to get one yard. The Steelers have thrown the ball two more times on 2nd and 1 than they’ve run it this year, making them one of only five teams with pass-heavy 2nd and 1 play-calling. If you see Pittsburgh in a 2nd and 1 this week, especially near midfield, look out for the long ball.

Check out the whole post at DMN.

And at NBC, I examined how Jason Garrett should attack the Steelers’ defense.

Get Jason Witten on linebackers.

Earlier this week, I mentioned that the Cowboys should keep tight end Jason Witten in pass protection more often to help the offensive line and so that defenses can’t key him as effectively to diagnose the play. Well, those plans should be put off a week. The biggest advantage the Cowboys’ offense will have over Pittsburgh is over the middle of the field, for two reasons.

First, inside linebackers Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote simply can’t hang with Witten. Timmons has actually played well in coverage this year, but the Cowboys will take that matchup all day. Secondly, the Steelers rush their inside linebackers more than any team in the NFL, by far. Timmons and Foote have combined to rush on 251 snaps this year, which is remarkable. Foote alone has rushed the quarterback on 17.5 percent of his snaps; in comparison, Sean Lee checked in at 10.9 percent and Bruce Carter at 5.3 percent.

Read the whole article here.

Dec
7

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys vs Bengals: Game Plan for Dallas

Category: Game Plan, Gameday, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

At NBC, I posted a game plan for the Cowboys’ offense in Week 14.

Run behind Tyron Smith.

It’s no surprise that the Cowboys are most efficient when running behind left tackle Tyron Smith. That works out well for them this week. Cincinnati has one of the league’s premiere run-stopping defensive ends in Carlos Dunlap; Dunlap has recorded a tackle on 11.5 percent of his run snaps—the highest mark for any 4-3 end in the NFL. Luckily, Dunlap plays almost exclusively on the left side of Cincinnati’s defense, meaning he’ll be matched up primarily with Doug Free. Free is going to lose that battle, but Smith should be able to get something going on Bengals defensive end Michael Johnson. Johnson is an outstanding pass-rusher, but his tackle percentage ranks him just 43rd in the league among seven-technique defensive ends.

On top of that, defensive tackle Geno Atkins will be lurking in the middle of the field. Atkins is the top defensive tackle in the NFL right now, hands down. Look for the ‘Boys to run to the left perimeter, away from Atkins and Dunlap.

Check out the other points.

Dec
6

By Jonathan Bales

Running the Numbers: Bengals’ Offensive Tendencies

Category: All Film/Stats, DallasCowboys.com, Film/Stat Analysis, Game Plan, Gameday, Recent Leave a Comment

My latest ‘Running the Numbers’ article is a look at the Bengals’ offensive tendencies.

45.2: Bengals’ first down pass rate.

The typical NFL team passes the ball 47.9 percent of the time on first down, so Cincinnati is a bit more run-heavy than the average offense with a new set of chains. Defenses may have caught on since the Bengals have totaled only 3.15 yards per carry (YPC) on first down in 2012. Even over the past three weeks, when the Bengals have really gotten their running game going, they’ve averaged only 3.06 YPC on first down. Compare that to 7.5 yards per attempt (YPA) and a 101.6 passer rating on first down for Andy Dalton this season.

The Bengals’ run-heavy philosophy on early downs is a major reason they have a low first down conversion rate. They’ve converted only 17.9 percent of their first downs, compared to a league average of 20.9 percent. The running game has helped Cincinnati set up manageable third downs; they’re average distance-to-go on third down (6.27 yards) is nearly a full yard superior to the league average.

Nonetheless, the Bengals would probably be a more potent offense if they sought more upside on first down. Sure, their third downs might become less “manageable,” but they’d also see fewer of them, meaning their overall offensive efficiency would improve. Plus, it isn’t like the Bengals are converting on a whole lot of third downs anyway; their 36.0 percent conversion rate is three percentage points below the league average. For the record, the Cowboys own one of the league’s best third down conversion rates at 43.1 percent.

Check out the entire article at DallasCowboys.com.

Nov
30

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys vs Eagles: Offensive, Defensive Strategies for Dallas

Category: Game Plan, Gameday, NBC, News & Notes, Recent, What to Watch/Key Matchups Leave a Comment

At NBC, I broke down the offensive and defensive strategies for the ‘Boys moving forward. The first is a mini-game plan for the Cowboys in Week 13 and beyond.

Keep airing it out deep to you-know-who.

The Cowboys aren’t throwing deep at a very high rate this season, but recently made a switch in the passing game to find Dez Bryant downfield. The change came in Week 8 against the Giants, and it was an obvious one. Think about this: Bryant’s deep ball rate—the percentage of targets that came at least 20 yards downfield—was only 5.9 percent in the Cowboys’ first six games. Since Week 8, the rate has skyrocketed to 34.1 percent. The average distance of his targets has also increased from 10.2 yards over the first six games to 14.7 yards over the most recent five. It’s really no wonder that Bryant has averaged 100 yards and nearly a touchdown per game since the transition.

Read it all at NBC.

The second involves key matchups for the Cowboys against the Eagles this week.

LB Dan Connor versus RB Bryce Brown

On Monday night, Brown made his first start in a football game since high school. The 223-pound running back who ran a 4.48 40-yard dash absolutely tore up the Panthers, totaling 189 yards and two touchdowns. He’s a legitimate threat to the Cowboys on Sunday, especially with DeSean Jackson out of the game. Brown is currently averaging 6.3 YPC on 51 rushes; if that mark stands, it will be the fifth-highest since 1980 for any rookie with as many touches as Brown.

Check it out.

Nov
21

By Jonathan Bales

How Cowboys Can (Try To) Stop RGIII

Category: All Film/Stats, DOs and DON'Ts, Film/Stat Analysis, Game Plan, Gameday, NBC, Recent Leave a Comment

At NBC, I took a look at how the Cowboys might game plan to defend Robert Griffin III.

Mix up looks.

126.3. That’s RGIII’s passer rating when blitzed this year. At 9.82 YPA, Griffin is absolutely gashing defenses when they send more than four rushers. If Ryan plans to bring the heat on Griffin play after play, the rookie will eventually beat the blitz.

However, it isn’t like the Cowboys can simply rush three defenders—something they did more often than they blitzed last week. RGIII isn’t Brandon Weeden, and he’ll pick the Cowboys apart if they’re too conservative. If the ‘Boys want to play with two-high safeties, it’s going to be awfully difficult to stop Griffin and the Redskins’ rushing attack. It’s hard to imagine, but the quarterback who is ranked in the top six in completion percentage, passer rating, and net YPA is also ranked in the top 20 in rushing yards among all players.

Read it all at NBC.

Nov
21

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys vs Redskins: Offensive Game Plan for Dallas

Category: All Film/Stats, Dallas Morning News, DOs and DON'Ts, Film/Stat Analysis, Game Plan, Gameday, Recent Leave a Comment

I just published an offensive game plan for the Cowboys in their Week 12 Thanksgiving matchup with the Redskins.

Challenge the cornerbacks.

Cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall, Josh Wilson, and Cedric Griffin have all played poorly in 2012. Hall has allowed the lowest YPA of the three, but he’s still been average at 8.91 YPA. Opposing coordinators aren’t afraid of Hall anymore, targeting him more often than all but five cornerbacks in the league. Meanwhile, Wilson has given up 10.32 YPA and Griffin—the nickel cornerback—has yielded 11.29 YPA. In comparison, Morris Claiborne, Brandon Carr, and Orlando Scandrick sit at 8.76 YPA, 8.57 YPA, and 5.45 YPA, respectively—all superior to Washington’s top cornerback.

As usual, it will come down to how much time the offensive line can provide Tony Romo. Look for Witten to stay in to block more than the five snaps he did last week in an effort to attack a cornerback trio that has allowed a collective passer rating of 98.9 to opposing quarterbacks.

Pound it up the middle.

Yesterday, I published a breakdown of the Cowboys’ running game that suggested they should rush the ball outside of the tackles more often. On Thursday, though, the Cowboys could actually have some success right up the middle. Redskins nose tackle Barry Cofield is a heck of a pass-rusher, but he doesn’t hold up well against the run. His 2.2 percent tackle rate doesn’t compare to that of Jay Ratliff (5.2 percent) or even Josh Brent (4.3 percent).

Check out the entire game plan at Dallas Morning News.

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