The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

By Jonathan Bales

How Cowboys Can Keep Pace with Redskins’ Offense

At DallasCowboys.com, I broke down the Redskins’ offense and how Dallas can stop it.

Redskins’ Rushing Offense

At 5.1 yards per carry (YPC), the Redskins rank third in the NFL in rushing efficiency. Led by rookies Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris, Washington is actually an even better rushing team than their YPC suggests. By breaking down all running plays in terms of the “expected points” a team can expect to score on a given drive before and after a play, it’s possible to account for specific game situations. A 2-yard run on first-and-10 is a negative for an offense, it decreases expected points, whereas a 2-yard gain on fourth-and-1 dramatically increases expected points.

Washington ranks first in the NFL in expected points added from their running game at 37.4, well ahead of every other team. To give you a sense of just how dominant the Redskins’ rushing attack has been in 2012, consider that only seven teams in the entire NFL have even created positive expected points with their running games.

Check it out at the team site.

And at NBC, I took a look at three key matchups for the Cowboys’ offense.

WR Dez Bryant/Miles Austin versus CB DeAngelo Hall/Josh Wilson

It’s almost a foregone conclusion that Bryant will have a big game this week. The receiver has now scored in seven straight games, including three contests with two touchdowns. Bryant’s 23.3 percent touchdown rate over that time is phenomenal. Meanwhile, Redskins cornerbacks Hall and Wilson have both allowed at least 9.55 YPA and a 93.3 passer rating. Wilson has yielded six touchdowns and Hall a 69.6 percent completion rate.

Perhaps more important, Wilson and Hall have given up 463 and 366 yards-after-catch, respectively, ranking them as the worst and fourth-worst cornerbacks in the entire NFL. With the size and run-after-catch ability the Cowboys have with Austin and Bryant outside, look for the rate of quick screens to continue to increase.

Check out NBC for the full article.

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys vs Redskins: 3 Things to Watch

I apologize for the lack of updates in the past day or two. In addition celebrating Festivus, I’ve also been traveling. I’ll try to keep the posts coming for the rest of the week, but feel free to head directly to DallasCowboys.com, NBC, and Dallas Morning News to read my game previews.

Earlier today at NBC, I posted three things to watch for Dallas versus Washington.

Will Rob Ryan blitz Robert Griffin III?

When we discuss whether or not a defensive coordinator will blitz a quarterback, we normally assume a certain level of blitzing as a baseline. While the Cowboys obviously can’t simply sit back in the same defense all night against the Redskins, this game could be the closest we see a Cowboys defense come to truly not blitzing.

Rob Ryan dialed up only seven blitzes in the teams’ first matchup, and RGIII absolutely torched him. Actually, Griffin currently owns the best single-season passer rating against the blitz in the history of the NFL. Yeah, ever. Against 91 blitzes this year, the rookie has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 1,028 yards, 11.3 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and one interception—good for a 141.8 passer rating. If the Cowboys find themselves in a position where they’re forced to blitz to try to create turnovers, they’re going to be in trouble.

Read it all at NBC.

By Jonathan Bales

How to Stop the Saints’ Prolific Offense

The Saints aren’t a particularly good team right now, but their offense is still among the best in the NFL. At NBC, I broke down three key matchups for the Cowboys’ defense in this contest.

DT Sean Lissemore versus OG Jahri Evans

When I was in high school, I visited a football camp at a small Division II college in northern Pennsylvania called Bloomsburg. There, I watched a massive man bench press 185 pounds 50 times, easily, and then get up and walk away. They called him “Rhino,” and now he (Jahri Evans) is one of the best offensive guards in the NFL.

The Saints love to run the football outside (when they run it, that is), averaging 7.4 YPC on 78 carries outside of the tackles. Outside linebackers Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware play so well against the run, however, that New Orleans could be forced to run it up the gut. There, Lissemore’s ability to man his ground against Rhino & Co. could be the deciding factor in the Saints’ ability to rush the ball effectively. Playing against one of the league’s most lethal air attacks, the last thing Dallas needs is to be unable to stop the run as well.

Read the whole post at NBC.

And at Dallas Morning News, I examined how Rob Ryan could potentially limit Drew Brees.

Getting Pressure

The Cowboys would obviously benefit from sacking Brees, but more important than that is consistently getting in his face. At 6’0’’, Brees struggles most with rushers right in front of him. The problem is that blitzing Brees is a risky proposition; Brees has a 102.6 passer rating when blitzed in 2012. Thus, the Cowboys will need to find ways to get to Brees with three, four, and the occasional five-man rush.

Let’s take a look at how the Giants picked off Brees in Week 14. . .

With heavy “22” personnel, the Saints lined up in Twins Right on a first down at the Giants’ 31-yard line. The Giants showed two deep safeties prior to the snap and didn’t appear to be in a blitz.

As the Saints have done on 19.3 percent of their passes this season, they showed a run-fake. The Giants linebackers didn’t bite on the fake and their four down-linemen continued toward Brees on their rush.

As Brees turned back around to throw, Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul was hot on his trail. As Brees threw the football, JPP got a hand up and nearly swatted it away.

Knowing the Giants were in Cover 2, Brees figured the deep middle of the field would be open. With Lance Moore on a go on the outside and tight end Jimmy Graham running a seam route, Brees immediately tossed the ball down the middle to what should have been an open area for Graham.

Safety Stevie Brown didn’t bite deep on the go from Moore, however, instead playing over top of Graham. It looked as though that was the plan for the Giants throughout the game, and it worked; Brees knew where Brown should have been, so he decided to hit Graham on what’s usually a Cover 2-beater. The pressure in his face from Pierre-Paul probably hurt his ability to see Brown creeping over.

See the rest at DMN.

By Jonathan Bales

Running the Numbers: Steelers’ Tendencies

My latest Running the Numbers post is a breakdown of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive tendencies. . .

7: Number of passes from Pittsburgh on second-and-1.

Only five teams in the NFL have more passes than runs on second-and-1: Pittsburgh, Dallas, New Orleans, Minnesota and Tampa Bay. The down-and-distance represents a unique opportunity for offenses to maximize upside without much risk, yet most teams take the “sure thing” and run on second-and-1 at nearly a 70 percent clip.

On his second-and-1 passes, Roethlisberger has three touchdowns and a 140.5 passer rating. He connected with Mike Wallace on a 40-yard touchdown just last week that came on second-and-1.

17.2: Percentage of Roethlisberger’s passes that utilize play-action.

You’d think the Steelers would use more play-action than they do; even though their rate is nearly twice that in Dallas, it still ranks only 20th in the NFL. Roethlisberger has a 71.0 completion percentage and 104.9 passer rating on play-action looks in 2012.

10.6: Percentage of Roethlisberger’s passes that travel at least 20 yards.

When you think of the Steelers’ receivers, you think of speed. Wallace joins Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown as three of the fastest players in the entire NFL, regardless of position. Because of that, defenses tend to be cautious with the trio, playing off so as to not surrender big plays. There’s evidence of that in the Steelers’ wide receiver screen usage, which leads the league, and Roethlisberger’s deep-ball rate, which ranks him only 26th in the NFL.

The Steelers have been relatively unable to capitalize on their deep looks, too. Roethlisberger has actually completed fewer than half as many deep passes as Mark Sanchez. Wallace, Sanders and Brown rank 18th, 38th and 46th in the league in deep-ball rate. Nonetheless, I think the lack of big plays downfield is more telling of how defenses play the Steelers than any problem inherent to their offense.

Check out the whole post at DallasCowboys.com.

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys vs Steelers: Key Matchups for Dallas D

My latest post at NBC examines two big matchups for the Cowboys’ defense on Sunday.

OLB Anthony Spencer versus RT Kelvin Beachum

The easiest way to limit the impact of Pittsburgh’s explosive wide receivers is to get to Roethlisberger in a hurry. The Cowboys have an excellent chance to do that this week. DeMarcus Ware will likely draw a double-team against left tackle Max Starks on most plays, forcing tight end Heath Miller—one of the league’s premiere blockers—to the left side of the Steelers’ offense. That will leave Anthony Spencer—who plays only 10.3 percent of his pass-rush snaps over the left tackle—matched up primarily with seventh-round rookie Kelvin Beachum.

Beachum, substituting for fellow rookie Mike Adams, has gone through the growing pains you’d anticipate for a late-round rookie thrust into the starting lineup. He’s given up only one sack but allowed pressure on 6.6 percent of passing plays in his two starts; that’s nearly as high as Doug Free’s pressure rate (gasp!). Spencer should be able to consistently win his individual battle against Beachum, and that’s something Dallas needs; it will really be the defense’s most significant advantage on the field.

Head to NBC to read the rest of the article.

By Jonathan Bales

Running the Numbers: Stats on Steelers

At DallasCowboys.com, I broke down the evolution of the Steelers with some numbers.

Defense

5.1: Net-YPA allowed by Steelers’ pass defense.

So how have the Steelers kept themselves alive for yet another playoff berth despite an offense that has been mediocre up until this point? Like usual, it’s the defense. The Steelers have the league’s second-most efficient passing defense, due in large part to their secondary.

91: Targets at cornerback Keenan Lewis.

Only two cornerbacks in the NFL have been targeted more than Lewis, but the big, physical defensive back has excelled this year. Lewis has allowed only 5.62 YPA and a 74.9 passer rating in 2012. With cornerback Ike Taylor out, Cortez Allen has also been thrust into the starting lineup. The 5.84 YPA and 80.0 passer rating he’s yielded are right on par with Lewis.

If there’s a weak spot in Pittsburgh’s secondary, it’s nickel corner Curtis Brown. In limited action, Brown has allowed a 75.0 completion percentage, 9.67 YPA, and a passer rating of 132.6. Look for the Cowboys to utilize three-receiver sets, whether they want to run or pass, to get Brown on the field.

7: Defensive interceptions.

The only knock on Pittsburgh’s secondary is that they haven’t been able to force turnovers; their seven interceptions rank them 31st in the NFL, ahead of only Dallas. Like the ’Boys, the Steelers haven’t gotten the same amount of pressure they’re accustomed to generating. As I’ve shown in the past, pressure is strongly correlated with takeaways, so the interceptions will come for both teams as the pass-rush improves.

To recognize just how poorly the Steelers’ rush has been in 2012, consider that their 6.0 percent sack rate ranks just 18th in the league and they’ve pressured the quarterback fewer than three-quarters as many times as Dallas.

Check out the rest.

By Jonathan Bales

Breaking Down Terence Newman in Cincinnati

At Dallas News, I took a look at how Terence Newman is performing for the Bengals this season and how the Cowboys can attack Newman this week.

Terence Newman vs Slant

Newman has always been successful when he can keep things in front of him. He has quick feet and can make a break on the ball with the best of them if he sees plays unfold. Thus, even though Newman excels at mirroring receivers, I think he’s currently playing best with off-technique because he doesn’t need to turn his back to the quarterback.

Below, you can see Newman lined up to the field on the left side of Cincinnati’s defense—where he almost always plays.

Matched up on Eric Decker, Newman was about four yards off of the ball at the snap. As Decker got into his route, Newman astutely let the receiver eat up his cushion. Newman’s technique was made easier because the Bengals were backed up near their end zone, and thus Newman wasn’t threatened by the deep route.

When Decker broke at 10 yards, Newman was in great position. He could see Manning get rid of the football, and the cornerback made a break on it. He actually fought through Decker to secure the interception—his first of two on the day.

Even though he’s undersized, Newman plays slants and other in-breaking routes very well because he recognizes and reacts as opposed to getting in a position in which his below-average ball skills come into play.

Terence Newman vs Screen

So how can the Cowboys attack Newman? Well, one way is to screen him. Newman has a very tough time fighting off of blocks and doesn’t have much toughness to his game when asked to do things outside of coverage.

However, the ‘Boys might be well-served to run tunnel screens or other quick throws that force Newman to fight off of a block. A simple quick screen that allows Newman to fly up unabated to the intended receiver isn’t going to work.

The Chargers did this wonderfully, hitting Danario Alexander right off the snap and allowing big Kevin Haslam to come set a block on Newman. Newman retreated and no one touched Alexander until 10 yards downfield.

Remember, the Cowboys haven’t run many screens this year—nine to receivers and eight to running backs, and most of those have been simple sight adjustments. Thus, if you see a designed screen or two to Newman’s side, it wasn’t an accident.

See the other route on which Newman struggles at DMN.

By Jonathan Bales

3 Key Matchups for Dallas in Cincinnati

At NBC, I took a look at the three most vital matchups for the Cowboys in Week 14.

WR Dez Bryant/Miles Austin versus Bengals’ Secondary

Bryant and Austin both stand 6’2’’ and weigh 225 and 219 pounds, respectively. The average height and weight of Cincinnati’s entire secondary—two safeties and three cornerbacks—is 5’10’’ and 195 pounds. Their largest player in the back end is cornerback Leon Hall who checks in at 5’11’’, 199 pounds. Cincinnati’s cornerbacks in particular have been outstanding all year, despite their small stature; Hall has allowed only 7.81 YPA in coverage and that’s actually the worst mark of all three cornerbacks. Still, you have to like the way Bryant and Austin match up. If Jason Garrett can put the receivers in position to use their big bodies to their advantage—such as on slants and jump balls—they’ll come out victorious in their individual battles.

Check it out here.

By Jonathan Bales

Running the Numbers: Stats on the Bengals

My latest Running the Numbers piece is a look at the Cincinnati Bengals.

12: Cincinnati’s rank in passing efficiency.

The Bengals’ offense is built around their elite offensive line and wide receiver A.J. Green. Leading the league in touchdowns, Green is one of the league’s most dynamic players. He can run the entire route tree, possessing the size to win inside and the speed to beat defenses deep; his 29 targets of at least 20 yards rank fourth in the NFL.

The Bengals are just 12th in net yards per attempt (YPA) at 6.6, however, because they don’t have anyone to truly take the pressure off of Green. The Bengals know that and quarterback Andy Dalton often forces the ball to his talented wide receiver. Green already has 120 targets, 24 more thanDez Bryant, and Dalton has tossed five interceptions when throwing to Green.

91.5: Dalton’s passer rating when blitzed.

Dalton has been just as efficient against the blitz as when defenses rush four or fewer defenders, thanks in large part to his offensive line’s ability to pick up extra rushers. Nonetheless, Dalton is prone to making mistakes when defenses blitz; his interception rate doubles from 2.4 percent to 4.8 percent when defenses send the heat. With 24 passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions, Cincinnati has a surprisingly high-risk/high-reward offense.

1,323: Rushing yards allowed by the Bengals.

Cincinnati has allowed only the 22nd-most rushing yards in 2012, suggesting they have an above average run defense. Bulk stats rarely tell the whole story, however; the Bengals actually rank 30th in the league in defensive rush success rate, i.e. only two teams have had a greater percentage of rushes that hurt their ability to stop a drive. In comparison, the Bengals rank 10th in the NFL in defensive pass success rate and sixth in efficiency with only 5.7 net YPA allowed. If the Cowboys are going to continue to rehabilitate their running game, the Bengals are as good of an opponent as any to do it against.

Check out the whole article at DallasCowboys.com.

By Jonathan Bales

Cowboys vs Eagles: Offensive, Defensive Strategies for Dallas

At NBC, I broke down the offensive and defensive strategies for the ‘Boys moving forward. The first is a mini-game plan for the Cowboys in Week 13 and beyond.

Keep airing it out deep to you-know-who.

The Cowboys aren’t throwing deep at a very high rate this season, but recently made a switch in the passing game to find Dez Bryant downfield. The change came in Week 8 against the Giants, and it was an obvious one. Think about this: Bryant’s deep ball rate—the percentage of targets that came at least 20 yards downfield—was only 5.9 percent in the Cowboys’ first six games. Since Week 8, the rate has skyrocketed to 34.1 percent. The average distance of his targets has also increased from 10.2 yards over the first six games to 14.7 yards over the most recent five. It’s really no wonder that Bryant has averaged 100 yards and nearly a touchdown per game since the transition.

Read it all at NBC.

The second involves key matchups for the Cowboys against the Eagles this week.

LB Dan Connor versus RB Bryce Brown

On Monday night, Brown made his first start in a football game since high school. The 223-pound running back who ran a 4.48 40-yard dash absolutely tore up the Panthers, totaling 189 yards and two touchdowns. He’s a legitimate threat to the Cowboys on Sunday, especially with DeSean Jackson out of the game. Brown is currently averaging 6.3 YPC on 51 rushes; if that mark stands, it will be the fifth-highest since 1980 for any rookie with as many touches as Brown.

Check it out.