Projecting Bruce Carter in 2013

At NBC, I projected linebacker Bruce Carter for the 2013 season:

Carter really has just one season of stats to examine, and he compiled them in just 11 games last year. The linebacker played 625 snaps in 2012, recording a tackle on 70 of them. That’s an 11.2 percent tackle rate. In comparison, Sean Lee’s tackle rate was 17.5 percent, although Carter’s number is still respectable.

In 2013, it’s certainly possible that Carter’s tackle rate jumps with the switch to the 4-3 defense. He’ll be playing outside—a more natural position than inside for the 240-pound linebacker. Carter will also play more snaps, assuming he remains healthy. If his rate of snaps per game remains steady, he’ll be looking at around 900 over the course of the season. At a 13.0 percent tackle rate, Carter would record 117 total tackles.

Improving the Cowboys’ Offense: More Dez, More DeMarco, Less Witten

At NBC, I’ve posted two articles on ways in which I’d improve the Cowboys’ offense. The first is how I’d distribute targets (ideally) in 2013:

Looking back at 2012, here’s how the Cowboys’ targets were distributed:

Jason Witten: 146
Other Tight Ends: 21
Dez Bryant: 137
Miles Austin: 115
Kevin Ogletree: 55
Other Receivers: 53
DeMarco Murray: 41
Felix Jones: 34
Other Running Backs: 31

That adds up to 633 aimed passes (excluding spikes and passes thrown away). Assuming that number remains steady in 2013, how should the Cowboys distribute the looks? Well, let’s take a look at the completion percentage and YPA to each player.

Witten: 75.3 percent, 7.1 YPA
Other Tight Ends: 76.2 percent, 6.7 YPA
Bryant: 67.2 percent, 10.1 YPA
Austin: 57.4 percent, 8.0 YPA
Ogletree: 58.2 percent, 7.9 YPA
Other Receivers: 64.2 percent, 6.8 YPA
Murray: 85.4 percent, 6.1 YPA
Jones: 73.5 percent, 7.7 YPA
Other Running Backs: 74.2 percent, 5.7 YPA

When we break it down like this, it’s pretty easy to see why it’s so vital to get the ball to Bryant. He totaled 2.1 YPA more than Austin while still catching nearly 70 percent of his targets. Using these numbers, let’s take a look at how the Cowboys’ target distribution should look in 2013. We’ll have to do a little guesswork for the rookies.

Witten: 110 (down 36)
Gavin Escobar/James Hanna: 60 (up 39)
Bryant: 163 (up 26)
Austin: 110 (down 5)
Terrance Williams/Other Receivers: 60 for Williams, 40 for others (down
Murray: 50 (up 9)
Randle/Other Running Backs: 30 for Randle, 10 for other backs (down 25)

And why the Cowboys should lean heavily on DeMarco Murray:

Perhaps more important, I don’t think Murray’s potential injury proneness should affect his usage. It’s fine if the Cowboys want to limit his carries so he doesn’t wear down at the end of games, but that’s something they should do for any back.

On top of that, Murray is a far more talented player than Randle. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Murray: 6-0, 215 pounds, 4.41 40-yard dash
Randle: 6-0, 204 pounds, 4.63 40-yard dash

Randle is a much leaner, slower back. That’s not good. Both have an upright running style, so if we’re going to label that as the cause of Murray’s injury woes, what does that say about the lighter Randle?

Why I’d Play Phil Costa at RG

At NBC, I proposed starting Phil Costa (or perhaps Ronald Leary) over Mackenzy Bernadeau at right guard.

In 2012, Bernadeau allowed a 3.2 percent pressure rate and six sacks—both poor numbers for an interior lineman. Bernadeau got beat by all types of defensive linemen, giving quarterback Tony Romo nowhere to step up to throw. In the running game, Bernadeau was even worse. The Cowboys averaged just 3.18 YPC with Bernadeau at the point-of-attack last year. While you might think the ‘Boys ran inside primarily in short-yardage and goal line situations, that’s not quite true. The average distance-to-go for a first down when the Cowboys ran behind Bernadeau was 7.78 yards—just below the average of 8.01 yards on all runs.

The problem, as many see it, is that the Cowboys don’t have a known commodity to step in for Bernadeau. I think this is a mistake made by coaches around the league—taking the “sure thing,” even if he’s not that good. But the Cowboys probably have a better option waiting behind Bernadeau, even if they’re not yet sure who it is.

In second-year man Ronald Leary and interior lineman Phil Costa, the Cowboys have two potential fill-ins for Bernadeau. Costa, who has guard experience, was sensational during his limited time at center in 2012. The coaches also really like what they have in undrafted free agent Leary, meaning the ‘Boys really have numbers on their side at the guard position. If they’re willing to hold an open competition for the starting right guard spot, chances are either Bernadeau, Leary, or Costa will step up. Based on 2012 play alone, Costa seems like he’d be the best fit.

Why I’d Start Jermey Parnell Over Doug Free

At NBC, I explained why I think Jermey Parnell should be the Cowboys’ starting right tackle in 2013.

But who could possibly play in Free’s place? Well, the Cowboys probably should have tried harder to upgrade the position, but of the choices on the roster right now, the starter should be Jermey Parnell. Let’s compare their 2012 stats. I tracked Free as allowing seven sacks in 674 snaps in pass protection—a 1.03 percent sack rate. Meanwhile, Parnell allowed five sacks in only 191 snaps in pass protection—a 2.6 percent sack rate.

So how could I possibly say Parnell was better than Free last year? Well, sacks are notoriously fluky, meaning they’re a really, really poor way to judge linemen. Instead, pressures—the times a lineman allowed his man to reach the quarterback, sack or not—are a better indicator of pass protection. And in 2012, Free gave up 41 pressures, compared to eight for Parnell. Those numbers equate to 6.1 percent and 4.2 percent pressure rates, respectively.

This is all statistical talk for a simple fact: based on how he played, Free got really lucky to allow just seven sacks last year, while Parnell was unlucky to allow five. I’ve found that a lineman’s sacks allowed typically add up to 25 percent of the pressures he’s yielded. That means Free’s most likely sack total in 2012 was 10, while Parnell’s was two.

Getting the Ball Deep to Dez Bryant

There’s absolutely nothing the Cowboys need to do more than find a way to get Dez Bryant the ball deep. Bryant broke out in 2013 only after the team made an obvious effort to ramp up his downdield targets. At NBC, I explored the situation:

Before the 2012 season, I wrote the following in my article Dez Bryant Will Be True No. 1 in 2012:

“Over the past two years, only 18.7 percent of Bryant’s targets came on passes that were thrown 20 or more yards. The playmaker has ranked only 51st and 54th in deep target rate over the past two years, according to Pro Football Focus. With Bryant’s undeniable ball skills, it’s a guarantee you’ll see his deep ball rate increase in 2012.”

And Bryant’s deep ball rate did increase. But only after the first three games (during which Bryant saw only one deep look). It’s no wonder it took Bryant a few weeks to break out. After it was all said and done, Bryant still ranked just 45th in the NFL in deep target rate in 2012. That’s not going to cut it.

So the top way the Cowboys can improve offensively in 2013 is to get the ball to Bryant deep pretty much any time he sees single coverage. He’s that good at fighting for the ball; he caught 50 percent of his deep looks in 2012—the second-highest mark for anyone with as many targets as him. Bryant’s 491 yards and five scores on deep touchdowns ranked him fourth and second in the NFL, respectively.

Check it out right here.

Grading James Hanna and Matt Johnson

My two latest faux draft grades are up at NBC. The first is on tight end James Hanna:

At 252 pounds, Hanna ran a 4.49 40-yard dash—a remarkably fast time for a tight end. Compare that to Escobar’s 4.84 40-yard dash. I’ve found that the 40-yard dash isn’t incredibly important for tight ends, but we’d never want someone who is slower if we can have a faster player. Plus, Hanna is so fast for his size that there aren’t a ton of comps out there for him. Good luck finding more than a handful of 250-pound players who run sub-4.5.

In addition, Hanna ran a 4.11 short shuttle—faster than most running backs. He also had a 36-inch vertical, 10-2 broad jump, and 6.76 three-cone drill. In comparison, Escobar had a 4.31 short shuttle, 32-inch vertical, 9-6 broad jump, and 7.07 three-cone drill. Simply put, Hanna is a better athlete in every sense of the word.

Re-Grade: Second Round

The other grade is for safety Matt Johnson:

The Cowboys have an enormous amount of confidence in safety Matt Johnson—so much so that fans have commented on numerous occasions that the team really knows nothing about him. Johnson—a rookie in 2012—has never played a snap in the NFL, yet he’s projected to be the Cowboys’ opening day starter at free safety.

Earlier this week, I broke down safety Barry Church as if he were a rookie and provided him with a fifth-round grade. Today, I’ll do the same for Johnson. Since Johnson has no NFL experience, however, the criteria on which I’m basing my grade are probably similar to those the Cowboys are using in assuming Johnson can play; he’s an athletic, explosive player with good size.

At 6-1, 215 pounds, Johnson is bulkier than the typical free safety. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, assuming Johnson can cover the deep middle. Based on his pre-draft measurables, there’s good reason to believe he can. Johnson ran as fast as a 4.52 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. Pro Day measurables aren’t standardized in the same way that they are for the NFL Scouting Combine, but it’s safe to say that Johnson is a sub-4.60 player. In addition, Johnson also recorded a 10-1 broad jump and 4.07 short shuttle. The latter number in particular is outstanding and shows that Johnson has short-area quickness.