The second post for my “Running the Numbers” blog at DallasCowboys.com is up, and it deals with the Morris Claiborne trade. Click here to take a gander. The article takes a look at the success (or lack thereof) NFL teams have had when trading up in the draft. Actually, of all 59 first-round trades from 2000 to 2010, the team that has moved down has acquired the best player (per career Approximate Value) over 50% of the time.
For the record, I don’t think the Cowboys necessarily made a mistake in trading up for Claiborne. He is the best defensive player in the draft and shouldn’t have fallen to No. 6. My point, though, is that “sure things” often turn into “oh craps,” so as a general rule of thumb, trading up in the draft isn’t beneficial, especially in the first round.
Again, head over to DallasCowboys.com for the post. Feel free to leave some comments there.